Population boom & food doom

KARACHI:

In 1800, there were one billion people. Today there are more than eight billion of us. Owing to this tremendous increase in population, scientists have begun to discuss strategies that can stabilise the population by the end of the century. If this is not possible, will there be enough food to sustain this growing global population? Population growth and food security are major concerns among economists, environmentalists, agriculturalists, and demographers in the 21st century.

It is critical to understand the dynamics of population growth before delving into the population stabilisation issue. Today, the world population is increasing at a 0.9% rate per year, a substantial decline from the 1960s when the rate was above two percent. Based on available data with the World Bank, now scientists believe the global population will reach 10 billion by 2050. However, the situation is even worse in countries like Pakistan. According to World Bank data, Pakistan's population growth rate in 2021 was predicted to be 1.8%, whereas neighbouring India and China witnessed growth rates of 0.8% and 0.1%. Pakistan's higher population growth is attributed to limited access to family planning services, lower literacy rates, and rapid urbanisation. The rising population of Pakistan is already burdening food security enormously by taxing resources and infrastructure, thereby increasing hunger and malnutrition.

Education and empowerment of women

When women gain education, they have access to economic opportunities, and they have fewer children. This enables females to make choices (delayed marriages) about family planning even if they cannot choose their husbands. This trend is significant in regions with historically high fertility rates, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Moreover, this trend can be facilitated by introducing policies that expand educational access, promote gender equality, and provide family planning services.

Similarly, access to family planning and contraceptive methods could be another potential aspect in attaining population stabilisation. According to the United Nations, around 190 million women throughout the world lack access to modern contraception. Widespread and easy access to contraceptive methods must be top priority, so that individuals and couples can make educated decisions about the number of childrne and the timing of their births. In Pakistan, traditional norms and gender roles often discourage women from making independent decisions about their reproductive health. It is essential to increase awareness about family planning to improve access to healthcare services. Local government may introduce family awareness programs for couples and align family planning programs with the reality of people’s lives.

Urbanisation and economic development

Declining fertility rates are closely linked to urbanisation and economic development. Individuals have fewer children when countries undergo economic growth (access to higher education and healthcare) and urbanisation (changing cultural standards). The demographic transition model shows this process, in which civilisations go from high birth rates to low birth rates and high death rates to low death rates as they improve economically.

In Pakistan, people from rural areas frequently migrate to cities in search of greater economic opportunities. However, this rapid urbanisation puts a strain on available resources, which raises the demand for services like healthcare and education. Given that metropolitan areas often see a delayed drop in fertility when compared to rural areas, this can thus indirectly lead to greater birth rates. Furthermore, even if economic development is necessary to raise living standards, it can unintentionally contribute to population expansion by lowering child mortality rates, raising life expectancies, and encouraging bigger families as they work to ensure their financial security. Long-term population stability can be achieved through encouraging sustainable urbanisation and green growth.

How to provide enough food for a rising population

Providing enough food to sustain the world's rising population is a challenging task. To explore prospective food security scenarios, we must consider these aspects as well as the procedures listed below.

Sustainable agriculture is the future

Adoption of sustainable agriculture methods can be a critical strategy for ensuring food security. These techniques focus on long-term environmental health, reduce chemical inputs, and encourage soil conservation. Sustainable agriculture ensures that the Earth's resources do not deplete and that we can continue to produce enough food to sustain the rising population. Crop rotation and organic farming, for example, can help preserve healthy ecosystems while also increasing yields.

Pakistan confronts difficulties with sustainable agriculture because of things like water shortages and outdated farming techniques. Since agriculture uses around 90% of the country's water supply, inefficient water use is a serious problem that is made worse by outdated irrigation systems that frequently waste water. Additionally, using chemical pesticides and fertilizers excessively has a negative impact on the ecosystem. Pakistan may make investments in drip and sprinkler systems for effective water usage, advanced irrigation techniques, and farmer education on sustainable farming methods to solve these issues. Crop rotation and organic farming can help lessen the need for dangerous chemicals, protecting ecosystems and the health of the soil. If such changes are made, Pakistan's agricultural sector may become more sustainable, which is essential for both environmental preservation and food security.

Climate change mitigation and adaptation

Climate change can jeopardise food security by changing precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, and extreme weather which ultimately may damage our agricultural system. As a result, climate change mitigation, which includes reducing greenhouse gas emissions, switching to renewable energy sources, and improving agricultural system resilience, are all critical steps.

Climate change has made Pakistan more susceptible to flooding, high temperatures, and harsh weather conditions. For example, higher flood frequency and severity can harm infrastructure and crops, and result in low food yield. The Pakistan Meteorological Department reports that Pakistan has experienced an increase in extreme weather events in recent years, including temperatures that have broken records and an increase in the frequency of flooding. Particularly in areas where agriculture plays a significant role, these occurrences might cause food shortages by interfering with agricultural activities and endangering the food supply.

Food waste reduction

Similarly, food waste reduction could be another critical step in achieving food security. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), one-third of the food that is produced worldwide is lost or wasted. Through better storage and transit infrastructure, increased consumer education, and novel waste tracking and reduction technology, one can guarantee that current food supplies are dispersed and utilised more effectively.

The Pakistan Agriculture Research Council (PARC) estimates that 36 million tons of food is wasted annually in Pakistan. Food security will immediately benefit from more food being made accessible for consumption via effective management and minimisation of waste. This approach can also benefit the economy since it lessens the monetary losses brought on by food waste, giving more people access to reasonably priced and wholesome food. Furthermore, reducing food waste is in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially SDG 2, which highlights the importance of avoiding food waste in reaching the goals of ending hunger and enhancing food security.

Considering the aforementioned challenges, we have discussed four potential scenarios for population stabilisation and food security.

Hurdles in the way of food security

Pakistan's food security dilemma is primarily a result of the complex effects of climate change, which range from the unrelenting grip of droughts and unpredictable rainfall patterns to the unrelenting march of rising temperatures and the spike in the number and intensity of extreme weather events.

Droughts and erratic rainfall patterns are wreaking havoc on Pakistan's agriculture industry. According to Pakistan Meteorological Departme, the average annual rainfall has decreased by 10% during the last several decades. This decrease in precipitation has resulted in water shortages, putting significant pressure on irrigation systems. As a result, crop yields have suffered, which has forced many small-scale farmers into food insecurity.

Similarly, increasing temperature is jeopardising agriculture productivity. According to the PARC, temperatures in Pakistan have been gradually rising which results in heat stress in crops. Wheat, a major cereal in Pakistan, is particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures, with a one-degree Celsius increase in temperature resulting in a seven percent decline in wheat yields. A study found that by the end of this century, temperatures are predicted to have risen 5-6°C, which will cause loss of up to 50% of wheat productivity in Asian countries. With a rising population and greater demand for food, these losses are significant and worsen food security challenges.

As a result of climate change, extreme weather events such as floods and cyclones are becoming more frequent and intense. According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), the frequency and intensity of catastrophic catastrophes in Pakistan have increased alarmingly over the years. These calamities not only harm crops and infrastructure but also relocate populations, which ultimately increases their vulnerability to food insecurity. The long-term recovery phase that follows such calamities adds to the already compromised food supply chain.

Scenario 1: Business as usual

In this scenario, there are a number of alarming consequences if Pakistan's existing patterns of population growth and food production continue unchecked. The population rise will certainly lead to increasing food consumption, perhaps triggering food shortages and soaring financial burdens. A path like this would put tremendous pressure on ecosystems, causing overuse of natural resources, deforestation, and eventually a speeding up of climate change. All of these factors combined would cause widespread food insecurity and seriously jeopardise people’s health. This route must be avoided at all costs.

Scenario 2: Sustainable development

A more promising future for Pakistan depends on international cooperation in the domains of gender equality, education, and sustainable development. Fertility rates may fall as women become more educated and empowered and as their access to family planning choices increases. In this scenario, Pakistan engages with other countries in sustainable agriculture, climate change mitigation, and food waste reduction. This scenario results in a steady decrease in population growth and enhanced food security.

Scenario 3: Technological innovation

Technological advancements, particularly in agriculture, have the potential to greatly improve food security. Innovations such as precision farming, genetically engineered crops, and alternative protein sources can play a vital role in increasing food production while minimising the environmental impact. This scenario is built on the assumption that technological progress aligns with acceptable environmental policies and ethical considerations. These innovations have the potential to revolutionise the agriculture sector, making it more sustainable and efficient, and ultimately contributing to improved food security for the people of Pakistan. This scenario assumes that technological advances are consistent with acceptable environmental policies and ethical considerations.

Scenario 4: Global cooperation

This scenario proposes international collaboration to solve food security and population stability in the setting of Pakistan. Pakistan can collaborate with other countries and exchange best practices, resources, and information. Globally, programs are put in place to support sustainable agriculture, lessen climate change, empower women, and cut down on food waste. The collaborative effort recognises the interdependence of these components in attaining food security. For Pakistan, it represents coordinated international assistance in reaching population stability and guaranteeing a stable and sustainable food supply for its citizens.

The issues of population increase, and food security are not insurmountable. Humanity may work toward a future where both population numbers and food production are stable, assuring a sustainable and wealthy planet for future generations through a mix of educational, technical, and policy-based solutions.

Ali Asad Sabir is a political economist and senior research assistant at the Institute of Development and Economics Alternatives (IDEAS). Abdul Rehman Nawaz is a research assistant at IDEAS. All facts and information are the sole responsibility of the writers.