Improving prospects for peace and stability

Pakistan’s security challenges are manifold and fairly complex. Some have historical roots, the most significant of which is the animosity between India and Pakistan, accentuated by the unresolved issue of Kashmir.

Once again, relations between the two countries took a sharp downturn in February 2019, when India falsely blamed Pakistani armed groups of carrying out attack in the Indian occupied Kashmir town of Pulwama that killed more than 40 Indian security personnel. When India used this false pretext to attack Pakistan, it retaliated by carrying out similar raids on military installations in the Indian occupied Kashmir.

India’s Kashmir clampdown remains even several years after Article 370 was abrogated. And the 2019 action presaged a host of policies and actions by the ruling BJP government to further tighten India’s hold over the disputed state. Whilst India took these illegal steps defying UN resolutions and agreements, the West and other major powers remained silent.

Despite these sharp political differences and India’s arbitrary actions Pakistan has been observance of most of the agreements and the ceasefire along the Line of Control is holding with effect from midnight of February 24-25, 2021. The situation could however change due to the present BJP government’s intrinsic hostility and unwillingness to engage in dialogue with Pakistan’s current leadership either directly or through intermediaries. This situation has the potential that any untoward incident on the border or a militant attack could be falsely attributed to Pakistan that could flare up into a serious conflict, like the Pulwama incident.

After the revocation of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019, Pakistan downgraded diplomatic ties with India. Since then, the diplomatic missions are headed by the Charge d’Affaires. These events, and the military escalations of February 2019 between India and Pakistan — wherein for the first time since 1971 India and Pakistan violated each other’s respective international airspaces — could have led to a more serious and prolonged conflict. These types of incidents reinforce that in the interest of the people of India and Pakistan and South Asia that constitute a high percentage of world population, there is no escape from finding ways of resolving the Kashmir dispute. Meanwhile, efforts by the US and other major powers like China and the European Union should be to encourage dialogue and resumption of full diplomatic presence in the two countries.

It would be wrong to assume that it is only Pakistan that loses due to adversarial relations with India. In fact, India too suffers in several ways by frittering away its diplomatic and political clout on Pakistan. It is unable to fully actualise its leadership role in South Asia, despite the US and Western support. The eight-member South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has remained dormant due to the hostility between India and Pakistan. Whereas, similar organisations such as ASEAN and Union of South American nations have made headway in promoting the economy and cementing relations between member countries.

India-Pakistan hostility has strengthened China’s position in South Asia and given it strategic space to broaden and extend its influence in Pakistan. It has facilitated Beijing to develop CPEC, opening new avenues for economic linkages and trade opportunities for itself and Pakistan in Central Asia and beyond.

In contrast, without access to Pakistan’s land route India cannot fully exploit its relations with Afghanistan and Central Asian states. The use of alternate sea and air route makes exports and imports expensive, apart from affecting political influence. India’s use of land route to access these countries would have benefited Pakistan as well both in terms of tariff and promotion of trade between the two countries. It may not be an exaggeration to assume that within India the government’s support and relations with a significant Muslim population is adversely affected or influenced if relations with Pakistan deteriorate. The same is equally true of Pakistan where the Hindus are considered suspect if the security situation is aggravated. Induction of minorities in defence and security related organisations has been restricted in both countries, irrespective of their loyalty and firm commitment to the state. There is only one Muslim, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, in the Modi’s cabinet. Hopefully, the incoming government in Pakistan after elections will have a suitable representation of the minority community in the cabinet. Despite adversarial relations there have been certain moves that have contributed to easing tensions and facilitating those individuals who have been in custody for various reasons in the two countries. Since 2014, Pakistan has repatriated 2,133 Indians from its custody, including fishermen. Similarly, Pakistani fishermen in Indian custody were repatriated to Pakistan. These reciprocal moves did contribute to easing the misery of fishermen and their families on both sides.

The Bilateral Protocol on visits to Religious Shrines signed between the two countries in 1974 provides for Hindu and Sikhs to visit Pakistan for pilgrimage and for Pakistani pilgrims to visit India. Recently, the agreement between India and Pakistan for the facilitation of pilgrims to visit Gurdwara Darbar Sahib Kartarpur in Pakistan in October 2019 was another good move. It has contributed to developing goodwill with the Sikh community and fulfills the longstanding demand of the pilgrims to have easy access to the holy Gurdwara. The visit to religious sites, the elated feeling that one has and the bonds that these help in building relations is fairly significant and should be encouraged by both countries.

Regional political and economic connectivity in the South Asian context can be a long-term goal. Obviously, this can only be realised if there is a fundamental change in Indian leadership thinking in resolving Kashmir and other political issues in accordance with the well-established international norms. On the contrary, ever since PM Modi has come into power, he has pursued the policy of unprincipled and non-viable division of Kashmir.

Pakistan will have to seriously focus on improving its economy and accelerating its rate of growth to levels comparable or close to those of India and Bangladesh for benefitting from mutual trade. Moreover, increasing economic cooperation between countries in the South Asia region could facilitate dialogue and present the region with improved prospects for peace and stability.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 8^th, 2023.

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