Method to the madness in Gaza

Hamas missed the commemorative day of the 1973 Yom Kippur war between Arab states and Israel only by a few hours. October 6^th stands out as a red-letter day for many in Arab states of Egypt, Syria and Jordan for their surprise attack on Israel winning them back some areas, if not all — including the Sinai desert — lost to Israel in its moment of glory in 1967. A similar surprise, this time by Hamas, which nominally controls Gaza, the Palestinian enclave in the west, had the Israelis reeling trying to catch up with a simultaneous attack on multiple Israeli military and intelligence complexes. That Hamas had integrated surveillance and drone technologies with kinetic operations, giving them results unexpected by a militia against one of the most reputed militaries in the world shocked one and all including Israel.

There are numerous theories making rounds from the most skeptical to the most outlandish, yet they feed into what can be termed a trigger to a possibly most transformative moments in middle eastern politics. Consider some of the statements that have emerged from Arab capitals: Iranian President Raisi in one-off got on the phone with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Sultan, suggesting serious concern in saving the conflict to widen beyond Gaza fearing retribution — Iran was the prime suspect in urging Hamas to initiate the October surprise. Saudi Arabia held off any further communication and interaction on recognising Israel in what was being widely termed the ‘deal of the century’ brokered under Biden as his personal moment of glory enabling Israel ‘comprehensive peace’ and increased influence in minding US interests in a region which the US now wishes to outsource.

The Saudi statement was illuminating — ‘suspending contact till fighting stops’, which means negotiations will begin soon after the war in Gaza is over. Clearly, the Gazans would have been decimated and crushed by then; Israelis having achieved its objectives of neutralising Hamas and ethnically lightened the load of just too many Palestinians in Gaza — it is called genocide. Americans asked China to tell the Iranians to keep Hezbollah at bay. Rest have generally remained mute, giving preference to their primary interests dominated by being in the good books of the United States. Israelis also attacked Syria’s two main airbases just in case Syrian imagination went wilder than their capacity and to preclude Iranian supplies to Hamas. Netanyahu pronounced that a longer second phase of a ground war will help cleanse what is left after weeks of bombardment. He aims to parch and level the ground — half of Gaza — till Israel can be assured of no disruption to its larger political objective of settling with Saudi Arabia and those that have held back till now. Iran and one of its proxies would have been severely weakened. That is also when Biden will sign off as the biggest peacemaker on either side of Suez.

What of Gaza and its couple of million residents? Many would have fled, perished, slaughtered or buried under tons of TNT exploded on them. Children, thousands who will have life snuffed out and those that will remain without families and their parents will be lost to time as a generation without antecedence and moorings. Both Hamas and Israel may justify their loss as a sacrifice for a bigger cause — Hamas to retain its primacy among Palestinians and at the least keep Gaza in their control, and Israel in search of eternal peace. I heard Yuval Harari, the sapienist of modern times to boot, being goaded by India’s NDTV to somehow link terror to Islam and a war between civilisations invoking time and again the 2008 Bombay episode in the same league. And, not for a moment mentioning Kashmir as world’s largest open-air prison turned into a Gaza-like ghetto by India. Conflating Islam, Pakistan and terror remains India’s abiding obsession. Harari finally fell prey to the goading characterising ‘religious fanaticism’ seeking ‘eternal bliss’. Not for a moment equating Israel’s own impulse to build ‘eternal peace’ over the ruins and blood of innocent Palestinian Gazans.

By some accounts, Hamas has been a creature of preference for the Israeli intelligence and strategic thinking as a counterweight to Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and to internally manage Gaza. Hamas is known to have received funds from Israel to neutralise Iranian influence in Gaza and from Iran to serve its ends against Israel. If you think it paradoxical, welcome to the world of intelligence. In initiating a surprise assault, Hamas may have played into one cloaked hand or another. By keeping the Syrians quiet and Hezbollah in check Israel has kept Iran out. Qatar and the US have held back on the 6 billion USD recently meant to be released to Iran, just in case. Iran will comply.

This is how the hypothesis to me is shaping up: in the garb of a war and in retaliation to what Hamas may have by design or default initiated in Israel, the latter will use the opportunity to eliminate, neutralise and sanitise whatever is left of the Hamas infrastructure in Gaza. So, Gaza gets flattened, Hamas is weakened to the point of non-existence, and opposition to the Palestinian Authority is ameliorated enhancing its capacity to negotiate a solution only for the West Bank more probable. That way Israel gets to give away only half the Palestinian state while earning all the peace that a wider recognition will endow. A flimsier State of Palestine will be a nice subterfuge to an abiding deal as Biden, MBS and Netanyahu work through the ‘deal of the century’. Yes, the Saudis will get their access to ‘peaceful’ nuclear technology and a NATO like cover of the US against unforeseen arisings but if that will usher in a newer race between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey (probably Egypt too) to seek nuclear equivalence that is one for the future generations to worry.

What of the sobbing and screaming young ones too scared to shriek with fear of the carnage around them? Well, that’s the price nations pay when humanists turn strategists, when geopolitics and long-term ‘stability’ in the name of ‘eternal peace’ is really the peace of the graveyard. India and its voice machine have thrown their lot with Israel. They have a point and a connection to make; Kashmir as a bleeding sore might need a similar treatment in due course. Just as a weakened and an eviscerated Gaza will finally fall in the lap of Israel to become an integrated part where settlements can be redirected, so will Kashmir, hopes India, be finally accepted the inalienable part of India. Except India has already annexed it illegally through constitutional manipulation and in violation of its own statutes. It thinks it will still need to face off an Intifada. To save the day for that eventuality it must then place its stock where a precedent is being enacted under international endorsement. Are there humanists left in India?

Published in The Express Tribune, October 20^th, 2023.

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