Fifty shades of stuck

There are several analogies to describe our current state of affairs. Caught in a tractor beam and trapped in a gravity well. But one fits like a glove. Treadmill walking. The more you walk, the less actual distance you are likely to cover. And if it is possible, make it a multi-directional treadmill because we are in the habit of changing directions mid-stride. Sadly, this road, too, was paved with good intentions.

Between the removal of Nawaz, the installation and then removal of Imran and what appears to be the single-minded rehabilitation of the former, you know we are stuck — stuck between a former premier taking his sweet time to disappear and the second coming, nay fourth-coming, of another which has taken atrociously long to materialise. And that, too, if that can manage to be a thing. Ceteris paribus it is one tall order. But more on that later.

Economics, foreign policy and domestic policies all circle the drain because the previous dominant order (remember, we mark the calendar based on the change in command in Rawalpindi, not Islamabad) left precious few cards on the table. Those six years witnessed some remarkable developments. Taliban’s takeover of Kabul, a near war with India which counter-intuitively returned Modi to power, the FATF and the hardening stance of IMF coupled with our remarkable agility to change finance ministers whenever one found a formula to macroeconomic stabilisation, unbelievable reversals in the war on terror and constant questioning of CPEC. And then the political summersaults.

Despite walking the treadmill, I try to put up signs of distress whenever I can. Consider this quote from my piece titled, “Much ado about Panama”, dated June 7, 2017: “It was our short-sightedness that brought to us the gifts of instability, terrorism, economic meltdown and international isolation. Today one politician will be removed and another one will be installed. And tomorrow the new politician will also become too big for his boots and then the cycle will repeat itself. On this carousel of power, it will matter little if the loopholes in the system were ever closed.” If you are intrigued by this premise, I assure you that I have enough material to write a voluminous book just on those fateful six years. Peripheries of power offer you an unparalleled vantage point. If that book is not written yet, it is only primarily due to the regard for a few kids.

Back to analogies. I don’t mind falling from a tree. That bit is called life. It is the edict that one has to hit every branch on the way down that gets my goat. For twenty-two years, a politician is consigned to the wilderness of radicalism. Then someone is seized by the bright idea that he be brought in, handed the keys to the kingdom, and every dissident suppressed. When he does what he is likely to do, he is forced out in a painfully long and messy process. Now, the one man at the receiving end of his persecution, with an outsized view of his victimhood, is returning to the country. Doing the same thing over and over again will certainly produce different results. Good luck with that.

The question is whether Nawaz Sharif’s return to the Islamic Republic can swing the public sentiment in his party’s favour. The jury is, of course, still out. But the portents are not encouraging. There are many factors leading to this conclusion. Whatever his reasons, it looks like he has missed the most suitable moment. The ideal time to recapture the public sentiment was immediately after the no-confidence vote against Imran. The country badly needed a counter-narrative against the PTI’s onslaught, and his presence here could have done away with the ridiculous optics of an elected premier rushing to London every now and then for dictation apart from lending some stature to the then government. We don’t know what kept him: his privilege or the wisdom of our six-year maestro.

Then bear in mind this is the PML-N. Punjab’s politics is neither known for its imagination nor intellectual depth. As a result, when the party dons a thinking cap, it invariably scores the highest number of own-goals. For instance, at the time of the caretaker government formation, the party behaved as if it had won the election and did not need any other party’s support. While it congratulated itself on what it viewed as a deft move, the other coalition partners called it a power grab. The loss of the PPP’s support is most telling. The party might have lost a lot of public support in the past decade, but it still remains a massive reservoir of brain power. It can burn you in ways that you may never see coming. The PML-N constantly alienates well-meaning but influential potential allies just to placate its yesmen and kith and kin.

Then there is the matter of brand. For a daughter and an heir apparent to say that only her father can solve the country’s woes is understandable. My daughters will sound precisely the same. But to convince the people in such a way that it affects the vote share is another. To be honest, the party has done precious little to build its brand in the past seven years. This is a very different electorate compared to the one the party last encountered.

But all this does not end the whisper campaigns started by spinmeisters. One particular channel seems to be running the party’s campaign already. This takes me back to 1993 when a PPP jiyala told me his party would form the next government because the US wanted it to be so. I asked him if he thought there would be rigging. He said no, but that would be the invariable outcome. In those simple times, such whisper campaigns might have worked. But will they work in this age?

So, if anyone is now spreading rumours that he will win because certain Arab countries may want him to win has no understanding of how many variables are out there impacting the opinions and positions of international leaders. This is neither how foreign policy nor electioneering works. Watch and learn.

My own view is that, more than anything else, Pakistan’s current state is directly impacted by the politics of another country — India. It has very effectively controlled the regional atmospherics for the past nine years after all. And there, we can’t be too sure of the outcome. How can we permanently alter our dynamics to fit one result when we can’t be too confident and are trapped in the gravity well of the saffron giant?

I don’t know about you, but I am not left with the stamina to endure more of the same.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 14^th, 2023.

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