Afghan Gordian Knot

Afghanistan continues to impact Pakistan’s security due to several factors, including continual depredations of TTP against Pakistan, influx of refugees, smuggling and terrorism. The Interim Afghan Government (IAG) is still coming to grips with the internal consolidation and is highly centralised in its decision-making with the final decision making power lying with Mullah Hibatullah Akhund. Pakistan’s newly merged districts of KP (NMD) along Pak-Afghan border are in the grip of a new wave of terrorism unleashed by Afghanistan based TTP, Daesh and Al Qaeda. The proxy warfare unleashed by hostile external actors is also one of the major factors contributing to the spike in violence. There are internal as well as external factors responsible for unstable security situation in above regions.

The internal reasons are Pakistan’s weak and inconsistent response to insurgencies, political instability and the weak governance evidenced by an administrative vacuum in the NMDs. The external reasons include proxy warfare imposed by hostile foreign agencies and a destabilised Afghanistan pursuing duplicitous policies vis a vis Pakistan. Any analysis of external factors would not be complete without analysing the complex interplay of factors contributing towards the IAG’s policy choices. Hackles were raised when TTP terrorists attacked FC posts in Chitral along with unprovoked firing at Torkham by IAG’s border guards. The Chitral attacks were repulsed and the Torkham border crossing point closed after exchange of fire.

The Chitral attacks were conducted by TTP militants and Pakistan lodged strong protest with the IAG after which it took some action against TTP arresting around 200 militants. There are however some independent media reports that accuse IAG of double dealing and regards the arrests as mere window dressing. At Torkham, the Afghan border guards had tried to encroach upon Pakistan’s territory purposely left unoccupied by Pakistan due to terrain configuration. The lesson apparently was learnt by IAG as Acting Foreign Minister Amir Muttaqi formally requested Pakistan to open the border crossing due to the economic losses and inconvenience to the sick seeking medical treatment in Pakistan. After Pakistan announced stern measures against border smuggling and the illegal Afghan migrants, without proof of identity inside Pakistan, the IAG officials mellowed down issuing conciliatory statements.

Pakistan has been engaging IAG regularly in order to help both countries achieve a symbiotic relationship in trade, security and development cooperation. The recent visit by Pakistan’s Special Representative to Afghanistan Asif Durrani has yielded some positive results, the manifestation of which is the opening of border crossing at Torkhum and the positive response by IAG on the issue of relocation of TTP militants from border regions to remote areas like Kandahar and Zabul. Kandahar Governor Mullah Mullah Shirin Akhund has stated the TTP militants would not be allowed to launch attacks inside Pakistan.

There have been clear signs during recent engagements between the governments that IAG leaders do not consider TTP militants as Mujahids and there is a dominant majority of cabinet members that wishes to address the international concerns about the strictures imposed upon the female education and jobs. There is also a realisation amongst the IAG leadership that the TTP militants on Afghan soil are not ideological warriors but a farraginous blend of petty criminals united in crime. This realisation bodes well for the future counterterrorism cooperation between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

IAG is a low budget government that has managed to generate revenue through customs duties and other taxes despite the freeze of $9 billion of funds. The half a million Afghan government servants are being regularly paid the salaries but the dependency on humanitarian aid is increasing. The US is the largest contributor to the $4.6 billion humanitarian aid committed in response to an Afghan demand of $6 billion. It is cautiously viewing the security situation, especially the mayhem caused by the Daesh, Al Qaeda and TTP through utilisation of a sizable number of abandoned small arms, night vision goggles, vehicles, ammunition and specialised equipment worth $7.2 billion.

Both the US and Russia are trying to create mediatory forums to help resolve the Afghanistan’s security and governance issues. The US is trying to cobble together a like-minded forum of countries like the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan and Uzbekistan leaving out China, Russia, KSA and Iran to negotiate with IAG. Russia contrarily is mooting the idea of a Moscow Format for dialogue on Afghanistan comprising Pakistan, Russia, Central Asian States, Iran, India and China. A recent meeting of the forum at Kazan city in Russia with Afghanistan as an observer on special invitation clearly asked Afghanistan to work with regional countries to resolve the security and governance issues that are leading to country’s continual isolation internationally.

On internal front we see a TTP that according to local population is better organised and determined compared to its pre-2018 version. The reason ascribed to above is the IAG’s ambivalent attitude bordering on complaisance towards TTP. The inconsistent policies including weak negotiating strategy with TTP combined with security and governance vacuum in NMDs has exacerbated the situation for Pakistan. TTP leaders Nur Wali Mehsud and Hafiz Gul Bahadur have made a common cause against Pakistani LEAs and are resorting to bullying tactics to browbeat the local population into submission. Their joint operations in Bannu and Shawal attest to their collaboration. The local hospitality is being violated and their women being forcibly married in the absence of effective police and courts in NMDs.

Apart from TTP, Daesh has made inroads in Bajaur especially its Mamond Tehsil. According to local journalists, the JUI activists that had crossed over to Afghanistan to fight TTP and Daesh are now being targeted by Daesh and the police are reluctant to take action against them. A new variant of TTP called Tehrik-e-Jihad Pakistan(TJP) has also emerged which comprises Pakistani as well as former Afghan TTA members. IAG is also keeping a vigil on TTA members’ joining of TJP but the surveillance efforts are not very effective. This new phenomenon of former TTA Afghan commanders joining hands with TTP merits serious response from Pakistani decision makers.

Pakistan instead of relying upon IAG should put its own house in order and deny any foothold to Daesh and TTP on its soil. The grievances of NMD residents about lack of business and commerce due to TTP activities need to be heeded. The civil government must establish its writ in NMDs with an effective civil administration, police and judiciary’s presence. The Afghan refugees need to be repatriated and all cross-border movement be allowed through passports. The visa and trade process however should be made simple and free of corruption to facilitate Afghan people’s visit to Pakistan. Above is a tall order but an inescapable necessity if we wish to cut the Afghan Gordian knot in the interest of sustainable security of our terrorism and crime-infested border regions.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 11^th, 2023.

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