The price of Modi’s re-election

Modi might break Nehru’s record of getting re-elected for a third successive time and by doing so drive the last nail in the coffin of Nehruvian notion of secular Indian nationalism. RSS’s religious nationalism is well on its way to erase the imprimatur of secular Indian nationalism and its pluralistic ethos. The syncretic and welcoming nature of Hindu creed that once threatened the particularism of rival religious creeds is giving way to a muscular nationalism that is misanthropic as well as xenophobic. It thrives on segregation instead of integration and in a country where nearly a quarter of humanity confronts 22 official and 122 major languages the cultural homogeneity of Hindutva creed is an unwelcome anachronism.

Modi’s India nowadays is a toxic brew of carpet bagging corporate witches being cooked over the smouldering embers of divisive politics and discriminatory social practices that are so widespread and systematic as to attract the sobriquet of crimes against humanity. Small wonder then that the Genocide Watch, a credible international human rights watchdog, has declared IIOJK, under Indian occupation since 1947, and annexed since 2019, as an area entering the ninth and the second last stage of the genocide. The annexation has been challenged in the Indian Supreme Court but the independent analysts prognosticate a sorry end to the litigation. The price of Modi’s re-election would be high both for the Hindu nationalists as well as the minority communities.

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People in India are miffed at the increasing income inequality and the apathy of the crony capitalism that returns the favours to its political patrons, come the election time. Two things go in favour of Modi. First the divisions in the opposition’s ranks and second the absence of a political rival with charisma and consistency to present a credible challenge to Modi’s popularity. Modi’s talent lies in erecting guard rails against any political bête noire using the muscle of RSS and the money of crony capitalists. The poignant reality of the Indian political landscape is the fragmented nature of the electorate in most of the swing states where the dominant political party can cobble together a coalition which in turn can be won over by the political and monetary inducements. Jawed Naqvi uses a very evocative term i.e. political cannibalism to depict the above phenomenon. Sharad Pawar’s shifting political allegiances in Maharashtra and his nephew Ajit Pawar’s alliance with BJP indicate this exploitable opportunism.

Modi won in 2014 and 2019 because his rival coalitions could not present a united front. In 2019 BJP got 37% of the popular vote whereas the other political parties secured 63%. According to an Indian analyst Neeraj Chowdhury the opposition alliance of 26 parties including Congress could beat BJP if they presented a united front in “one on one” political contests. The opposition alliance known by the onomatopoeic name of INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) is pitted against Modi using the slogan of saving Indian democracy from Modi’s fascism. The coming together of the regional parties like Samajwadi Party and Trinamool Congress bodes well for INDIA alliance and rings alarm bells for BJP which is visibly rattled after its defeat in Karnatka and Himachel Pradesh. Modi fears that he might already be trailing on 70-80 seats out of his tally of 303 Lok Sabha seats won in 2019. The prospect of losing clear majority is an anathema to Modi as he hates any checks and balances on his political power.

The 3500 km ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ started by Rahul Gandhi has given a fillip to the war of alliances. With Modi on a slippery wicket due to withdrawal of traditional allies like Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and Janata Dal (United) out of BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Modi has stepped up confabulations with smaller regional parties, especially in Bihar where Nitish Kumar of JD(U) has hitched his political bandwagon with opposition alliance INDIA. Modi is also concerned that his 37-member coalition of smaller parties had won only 30 seats in the 542-strong Lok Sabha in 2019. Modi is also feeling heat due to the regulatory fraud of Gautam Ambani’s companies which as per the investigative report of a New York-based investor Hindenburg Research showed corporate irregularities that led to a scandal that erased $110 billion out of the wealth of the Adani Group.

Adani was the main financier of Modi and a beneficiary of Modi’s political clout in his home state Gujarat. Modi is facing criticism at home and abroad for his partiality to crony capitalism. According to Renaissance Capital’s Robertson the flow of foreign investment that was thick and fast has dwindled in last three months because of the scandal. Now what would a man like Modi do faced with these heavy odds? With his overweening ambition and sedulously nurtured image of a Hindutva Champion he is expected to project a machismo as the election date approaches in 2024. The default reaction of Modi in the past has remained the stoking of fires of communalism to win the sympathies of the far right fringe of Hindu electorate. He did that successfully in 2002 in Gujarat and thrived on those riots to burnish his credentials as a hardboiled Hindu revivalist.

According to a Congress leader Shankersinh Vaghela the Godhra train incident in which 50 Hindus were burnt to death was a false-flag operation staged by Modi to mobilise the rabid far-right Hindutva votaries for his selfish electoral gains. Similarly in 2014 in Muzaffarnagar UP the communal hatred was stoked to win the Hindu votes. The 2019 Balakot cross-border attacks are a fairly recent reminder of the whipping up of nationalist sentiments before the elections. Already the former governor of Jammu and Kashmir Satyapal Malik and Supreme Court Lawyer Prashant Bhushan have insinuated at the possibility of a false-flag operation at the Ram Mandir being built over the Babri Masjid at Ayodhya by faking an attack by Muslim extremists. The fires of communalism stoked by such an act would be used to whip up Hindu nationalist sentiment for shoring up the sagging electoral fortunes of a beleaguered Modi in UP.

BJP and its RSS musclemen believe in demonisation of Muslims to whip up the paranoia of Hindu nationalism especially before battling it out at the hustings in an electoral arena. A cornered and politically vulnerable Modi confronted by a strong electoral alliance INDIA may revert back to his default mode of a staged pantomime of a communal conflict or the cross-border attack. The world must stay vigilant.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 30^th, 2023.

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