The backslide of democracy in West Africa

Africa, the world’s poorest and least developed continent, stands on the brink of another conflict. The deadline from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for the coup leaders in Niger to step down and restore the government of Mohamed Boazoumhas come and gone. Reports indicate that ECOWAS is already preparing for a military intervention in Niger, with Nigeria and Senegal having pledged troops. The coup follows on the heels of similar military takeovers in ECOWAS member nations Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali, and an attempted coup in Guinea Bissau, all within the last three years.

Africa is almost preternaturally prone to coups, having witnessed 214 coup d'état attempts since 1950, the most out of any region in the world. Over 90% of African nations have faced putsches, successful or otherwise. Thus, historically, they are the norm rather than an aberration in Africa’s political environment. However, even after taking this into account, Western Africa’s preponderance for coups is unique. Most West African nations, with some exceptions, lie within the Sahel region. The Sahel stretching from Mauritania and Senegal to the west, to Sudan, and Eretria to the east has been the heart of violence and humanitarian disasters for the past few decades.

The Sahel has been the stomping grounds for various jihadist groups since the failure of the Libyan state in 2011, after the NATO-led intervention in the state. This led to the proliferation of weapons and armed fighters in the region which ultimately culminated in various extremist organisations including but not limited to Boko Haram, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MOJWA), and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Consequently, according to the Global Terrorism Index, there were 6,701 terrorism-related deaths globally in 2022, with the Sahel accounting for 43% of the global total. Government failure to curtail these terrorist groups is often the reason cited for military takeovers, as was the case with the 2012 Mali coup and the current situation in Niger.

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Another factor that contributes to West Africa’s downward spiral of military takeovers is weak governance and government instability. West African states such as Mali, Nigerand Burkina Faso have invariably found themselves at the bottom of international indexes for political stability and governance for the past few years. These indexes include the Fragile State Index, Human Development Index, and World Bank Governance Indicators. Corruption is rife within the region with the most recurrent forms being misappropriation of public funds, intimidation, influence peddling, nepotism and rigging of national institutions. This has led to a near institutionalisation of smuggling, trafficking and other classifications of transnational organised crime. The perception of widespread government corruption has contributed to the loss of legitimacy on the part of state organs. This is exacerbated by the hybrid mode of governance in these nations with domestic political control being offset by international influence, whether in the form of foreign governments, businesses, or NGOs.

West Africa’s propensity for government ouster and authoritarian takeovers is only expected to increase under the calamitous effects of climate change. Temperatures in the region are expected to rise by 2.5 degrees centigrade by 2080, with some even predicting temperature increases of up to 4.3 degrees centigrade. This would devastate agriculture and pastoralism across the region, further breeding food insecurity. Already Lake Chad, bordering Cameroon, Chad, Nigerand Nigeria, which was once one of the largest freshwater bodies in the world has shrunk by 90%. Climate migration along with diminished land and water resources has led to increasing clashes between the various farming, herding and fishing communities in the area. These tensions inflame feelings of government dissatisfaction and are exploited by extremist organisations for their agendas. The confluence of these factors has made conditions ripe for a situation that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres labels as “an epidemic of coup d'états”.

According to the Freedom House’s 2019 Freedom Index, only 2 out of 15 nations in West Africa can be classified as “free” and where democratic norms are well practised, namely Ghana and Cape Verde. Thus, it would not be presumptuous to say that in this part of the world, the third wave of democracy, which arose after the conclusion of the Cold War, has receded. The only way to revive democracy in the region is the establishment of dialogue between the various factions and strengthening public trust in democracy and state institutions. As such, sanctions and belligerent rhetoric by external actors may lead to more harm than good in the long run.