How real is India’s vision to be a great power?

“The people of Manipur have maintained peace in the past few days, and they should continue to foster that peace, as it is the path to resolution. Both the state and central governments are working together to find solutions to the issues and will continue to do so,” said Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his speech from Red Fort Delhi on August 15, 2023.

Whatever Modi said in his Independence Day speech, the Manipur carnage against ethnic Christian minority questions New Delhi’s claim of being a great power adhering to the tenets of democracy and ensuring peace. While it’s true that India is on track to become the world’s third largest economy, Modi’s claim of addressing the Manipur carnage will not work unless there is a paradigm shift in years of exclusive policy directed against religious minorities.

In his speech, PM Modi also talked about transforming India from a middle-income country into a developed one by pulling millions of people from the clutches of poverty and investing on farmers and other vulnerable segments of Indian society. With the general elections less than a year away, Modi used the Independence Day opportunity to reiterate his achievements during his two terms in office and confidently predicted that he will be speaking again on the 77^th Independence Day anniversary of India.

While expressing optimism about the future of his country, Modi said, “We are fortunate that we have inherited certain things from our ancestors and even the present era has created certain other things. Today we have demography; we have democracy; we have diversity. This trinity of demography, democracy and diversity has the potential to fulfil every dream of India. India is moving energetically towards its youthful age structure. It is a period of great pride because today India has the highest population under the age of 30.” Never before in the history of modern India, the country produced a Prime Minister who carries a baggage of communalism and whose party is blamed for dividing the country on religious lines but who forcefully talks about transforming India into a great country in all respects.

Mentioning diversity of culture and religion as a plus point in augmenting economic vibrancy, modernising infrastructure and pursuing a development-oriented approach, Modi is now striving to get a third term in office. Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), a conglomeration of political forces representing almost all opposition parties with a common purpose to defeat BJP in the coming general elections, is unable to effectively challenge Modi because of his firm grip on the country’s politics, economy and foreign policy.

One needs to analyse Modi’s Independence Day speech from three angles, as follows:

First, Modi has been consistent in using his Independence Day speeches since 2014 to highlight his government’s focus on improving economy, carrying out development, modernising infrastructure, ridding India of what he calls one thousand years of slavery and placing the country on the world map as a respectable state. He has been indifferent to domestic and international criticism of human rights violations, particularly against religious minorities, and the colossal use of force to suppress the freedom movement in J&K. during almost ten years of BJP-Shiv Sena government, Modi’s shrewd strategy to continue with an exclusive culture targeting religious minorities and patronising Hindu nationalism is now yielding results. By inundating state institutions like bureaucracy, judiciary and military with the supporters of his party and silencing dissent in academia, he has been able to neutralise a vibrant civil society and media. It was inconceivable a couple of decades ago that Hindu nationalism under the garb of development would impose its narrative of patriotism under religious colour. Modi has, however, been able to get away with his exclusive agenda of transforming India as a Hindu state reflecting deep-rooted bias, particularly against the 200 million-strong Muslim minority. The use of Independence Day celebrations for reminding the people of India that they have broken the shackles of a thousand years of Muslim and British slavery and will soon emerge as a great nation with global economic and military clout needs to be taken seriously.

Second, a dangerous component of BJP’s art of governance is its nexus with resourceful elite capable of financing its election campaign and various developmental programmes. Critics argue that the Ambani group is a major capitalistic organ of the BJP which helps its leadership in return for financial favours. Modi is blamed by his opponents for giving a free hand to capitalists while ignoring the plight of millions of poor who despite the BJP rhetoric are still living in miserable conditions. Modi takes credit for a vibrant middle class of around 400 million as his great achievement, but his critics accuse him of accentuating the gap between rich and poor.

Third, Modi’s confidence in his vision of lifting India as the world’s number one economic power by 2047 has support from his party stalwarts who see him as a catalytic force. Yet, his government’s policy of marginalising religious minorities, particularly Muslims and Sikhs, will turn out to be a source of his vulnerability. The surge of Hindu fanaticism and growing authoritarianism in governance matters clearly indicates the gaps that exist in his vision of turning India great and the reality on ground.

The economic gains — such as $700 billion worth of foreign exchange reserves coming in the form of significant volume of remittances, foreign direct investment, exports, etc — will be mitigated if the Modi regime is unable to pursue an inclusive approach in the affairs of politics and governance. That is a major impediment to India translating its vision of becoming a major world power into reality. The coming few months in Indian politics will be crucial because INDIA — the opposition alliance — will try its best to exploit the faultlines within the Modi regime to get an edge in the 2024 general elections.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 22^nd, 2023.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.