Who reaps rewards of poll delay?

The country is embroiled in uncertainty as questions arise about whether the upcoming general elections will be held within the constitutionally mandated timeframe of 90 days, sparking questions as to who stands to benefit and who could be blamed for the potential postponement.

With the Election Commission of Pakistan’s (ECP) recent announcement that it would conduct a fresh four-month delimitation exercise, it appears that the polls could be delayed for several months.

This would result in the caretaker setup continuing beyond its constitutional mandate, reminiscent of what occurred in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Earlier this year, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) sought to dissolve the two provincial assemblies in hopes that it would pressure the then-coalition government to announce snap elections.

However, despite the Supreme Court's intervention, this did not come to pass, and the interim setups extended beyond the mandated 90-day period in both provinces.

Now, amidst statements suggesting that the elections may be held in February or March of next year, the focal point becomes the interpretation of the matter by the ECP in the days to come.

The ECP's decision to revamp all constituencies of the national and provincial assemblies based on the 2023 census indicates that certain individuals and parties could benefit from the delay, including those shedding crocodile tears over the postponement.

'Preparing ground for Nawaz's return'

The possible return of PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif in September has sparked discussions about the legal challenges he may face, including potential jail time and the need for bail upon his arrival in the country.

Insiders within the party believe that the delay in the elections could benefit PML-N, as it would provide more time to overcome legal obstacles before Nawaz can return, lead the election campaign and run for the premiership for the fourth time.

Apparently, this is why the PML-N has not yet responded to the ECP's decision to redraw constituency boundaries, leading some to believe that the delay in polls could favour the party.

“The delay in polls apparently works in favour of PMLN as they get more time to sort out Nawaz Sharif Sahib’s legal issues after the retirement of present CJP,” opined the president of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, Ahmed Bilal Mehboob.

In the background discussions, the members of the previous government admit that the potential delay also suits the former ruling coalition as they can put the blame on the interim government and others for political, economic and constitutional woes during the election campaign.

They also quipped that Imran’s popularity can also go down in this period.

Another scenario suggests that the possible delay can lead to providing some relief to former premier Imran Khan, who is currently in jail after being recently found guilty by a district & sessions court in the Toshakhana case.

PTI leaders and those closely following his cases believe that Imran Khan can get relief from the higher courts and be released on bail in the Toshakhana case before the polls.

They feel that frequent remands in other cases might also not go beyond November or December and, thus, providing Imran Khan with a chance to come out of jail and lead his party in the general elections.

On the likely delay in polls, Mehboob said that it is a matter of how the constitution is interpreted, saying his interpretation as a layperson was that delimitation, after every census is required by the Elections Act, 2017 but holding an election within 90 days, is required in the constitution so obviously constitutional provision takes precedence over ordinary law. But, he said, obviously the EC interpretation is different.

Conclusive interpretation has to come from the Supreme Court and apparently, the question will land there despite the fact the chief election commissioner (CEC) reportedly had a two-hour-long meeting with the chief justice of Pakistan before the announcement was made that the delimitation will be conducted before holding election.

“Nevertheless,” Mehboob said, “SC will have to formally interpret the constitution and give a verdict.”

To the question as to who is to be blamed for the expected delay in polls, former senator Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar said that “the onus of delay squarely lies on so-called democratic parties, PML-N and PPP.”

Knowing that notifying census results will result in a delay in elections, Khokhar said, they still went ahead with it. “They did it with malafide intentions and the country will suffer with prolonged political crisis,” he concluded.