The Shehbaz legacy

T his column on March 25, 2022 was captioned “Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif”. It was before he assumed office in the following April. The main message was that he is a doer and his chosen domain is development. Politics does not distract him from doing development. His past record and the latest public admission show that creating civil-military tension is not his cup of tea. “But does he have in him the grit to build consensuses on fair elections, accountability and economic reform,” I had asked. Now is the time to make a rapid assessment.

In his valedictory speech in the National Assembly, he described his tenure as “the most difficult 18 months of his political life”. Development to him means visible projects in the field of infrastructure and marketable programmes reaching out to students, farmers and SMEs. His view of social protection is reflected in handouts to the orphans, widows and the indigent. Development economists and practitioners may disagree, but that’s what he thinks is doable in Pakistan’s political landscape.

From Bhara Kahu Bypass to Gwadar and DiamerBhasha Dam to the thermal power plant in Jhang, he demonstrated his known Shehbaz speed. During the floods, his first big challenge, he was seen standing by the people and the provincial governments. All in all, hundreds if not thousands of near-completion projects were completed, ongoing projects accelerated, new projects started and brand projects approved. CDWP and ECNEC were made to burn midnight oil at a time of serious resource constraint. These are mostly domestic projects. On the external front, the transition from CPEC phase 1 to 2 had been stalled under the previous regime. It has been revived now with the Chinese on board again on mega initiatives like Main Line-1 railway project.

For the future, Shehbaz proudly portrayed in his speech the Special Investment Facilitation (SIFC) as a great vision. As Punjab chief minister, he mastered the art of setting up incentivised parallel set-ups for speedy completion of projects and effective service delivery, rather than taking the long route of reforming a lethargic and corrupt bureaucracy. The SIFC takes this idea further. Instead of a parallel body, an apex body has been created to deploy military power to make the existing civilian institutions do what they are supposed to do. Investors from the Gulf will tread the familiar terrain of centralised decision making.

A comprehensive legislative framework, voted by a 13-party alliance, has been put in place to protect the business of the SIFC. Development and investment projects can exacerbate fiscal and current account deficits if the economic structure is not reformed. This fundamental aspect seems to have been left to the IMF. Shehbaz could not stop Ishaq Dar from making a mess of the reform programme. His belated intervention gave birth to a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), which is meant to plug a few holes before administering reform. True, it also helped the country to avoid default, but for how long? The government shied away from taking even a single piece of reform on its own.

Hence, the talk of a three year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) following a successful completion of the nine-month SBA. With legislation empowering the caretaker government to take policy decisions, the EFF and the caretakers powered by the military are expected clean the Augean stable. The Shehbaz legacy is that the political class wants others to create space for it to regain the lost political capital. What if the wish is not granted! Are we heading for the final end of hybridity? A Decade of Development 2.0?