Planet on fire: July's chilling warning to the world
The month of July has rewritten the record books as it stands out as the hottest month ever on a global scale. Unrelenting heat waves have sizzled large swathes of Europe, the United States, and parts of Asia, leaving countries grappling with severe weather conditions. From Puerto Rico to Pakistan, Iran, India, and all the way to Siberia, climate records have not just been shattered, but smashed.
In June more than 4.7 million hectares of land in Canada were scorched by wildfires, painting skylines an eerie shade of orange over Ottawa, Montreal, and Toronto, where a dense haze obstructed views of the CN Tower, a 553.3-meter-tall iconic landmark that dominates the downtown skyline of one of Canada’s largest cities. However, this was not just Canada’s problem; billowing smoke traveled across continents, reaching as far as Europe, serving as a wake-up call for everyone trying to ignore the climate crisis and its far-reaching consequences.
A month later, all efforts were concentrated on dousing blazes raging on the Greek islands of Evia and Corfu, in addition to Rhodes, where wind-whipped infernos forced the government to evacuate more than 19,000 tourists and residents. The scars left behind by these fires are all too visible. Many towns in Greece were left with a severe shortage of water because of the damage to their resources. According to the country's weather Institute, Greece faced the longest heatwave in its history, with its hottest July weekend in 50 years, with the mercury rising in some parts up to 45 Celsius (113 Fahrenheit).
To leading scientists, none of this comes as a surprise. The likely trajectory of climate change, given the current global performance on emissions reduction, has been spelled out repeatedly by climate experts, and their cries have been falling on deaf ears for quite some time. While warming caused by greenhouse gases is not unexpected, seeing some of the climate records being broken was not anticipated. The global average temperature has been rising, and in July this year, it broke through 17 degrees for the first time. Furthermore, the record for the hottest day on earth fell not just once but three times in a week. And it is not just the land that is warmer; the oceans, which take up most of the world's heat, have also witnessed unprecedented temperatures.
According to a major United Nations scientific report released in April this year, countries can still limit global warming, but the margin for error, it cautions, is vanishingly small. Released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of experts convened by the UN, the report warns that the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) could be beyond reach by the end of this decade unless countries significantly ramp up their efforts to reduce emissions from coal, oil, and natural gas in the next few years. In short, the Earth will continue to grow warmer until humans halt all emissions from fossil fuels and stop deforestation.
The current global transformations were forecasted years ago; however, the astonishing ramifications of climate change are unfolding at an accelerated pace surpassing the predictions of scientists and researchers. The Arctic, used as a bellwether for the impacts of global warming, is heating up about four times faster than the rest of the globe. In certain spots, experts have observed a notably pronounced warming trend in recent decades. For instance, the area around the Barents Sea has warmed seven times faster than the overall global average.
“The impacts of climate change are already being seen, so this is no longer a future issue. We expected things to be bad with climate change, but in many ways, we are finding that they are happening faster than we had anticipated," said Dr. Adil Najam, a leading Pakistani academic who now serves as the President of the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF).
The extreme weather events that we are currently experiencing, as explained by Lucas Vargas Zeppetello, a postdoctoral researcher at Harvard University, are due to climate change. “The science on extreme events is complicated, but we know that climate change is a major factor. The world has warmed by more than 1.1˚C since the beginning of the industrial revolution.” "That may not sound like much, but it's enough to increase the frequency of extremely high temperatures around the world," cautioned Zeppetello.
But global inaction over these warning trends have left the community of climate scientists with a great sense of betrayal. “The recent massive heat waves over both land and water are an indication that these climate changes are accelerating,” warned environmental scientist, Peter Gleick. The threat of human-caused climate change, Gleick said, is the most significant environmental challenge we face today.
Hot days ahead
In its latest report, the EU climate monitoring service Copernicus said the average global temperature crossed 17˚C for the first time in July, with temperatures of 17.08˚C during the first week of the month. This officially made July the hottest month, breaking the global average temperature record set in 2016.
Once again, scientists unequivocally identify the ongoing emissions from burning fossil fuels like oil, coal, and gas as the primary driver behind the planet's warming trend.
In his research, Harvard University’s Zeppetello, has already warned about the consistent increase in global temperatures. “The record-breaking heat events of recent summers will become much more common in places like North America and Europe,” he said last year. According to Zeppetello’s study, carbon dioxide emissions from human activity could drive increases in exposure to extreme temperatures in the coming decades, even if global warming is limited to 2˚C, in line with the Paris Agreement.
As global climate trends are under close scrutiny and discussion, scientists are particularly attentive to the overall temperature rise. In June of this year, the average global temperature was 1.47˚C higher than the typical June temperature during the pre-industrial era.
“Why the previous records are being shattered by so much (i.e., more than 1.1˚C) is a different question that's more difficult to answer, but the basic fact is that the increase of record-breaking temperatures is a consequence of global change,” added Zeppetello, who focuses on climate variability and anthropogenic change influence heatwaves.
Warmer ocean
According to an analysis conducted by Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, global sea surface temperatures reached unprecedented levels for June, with the north Atlantic Ocean experiencing exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures and extreme marine heatwaves. The study suggests that these anomalies were a result of both short-term atmospheric circulation changes and longer-term oceanic shifts.
While the onset of El Niño, a powerful naturally occurring weather pattern recently declared by the World Meteorological Organization, and its potential impact on pushing global temperatures into uncharted territory by the end of 2023 and into 2024, will continue to dominate the discussion this year, scientists and climate experts have also warned that we have already stepped into uncharted territory due to the unprecedented warmth observed in the north Atlantic Ocean.
“The warming of the oceans is just one indicator of these changes; others include intense heat waves, the rapid disappearance of glaciers and ice near the north and south poles, rising sea level, and more intense and frequent severe storms and droughts," said Dr. Peter Gleick, Co-founder, and Senior Fellow, Pacific Institute. “The recent massive heat waves over both land and water are an indication that these climate changes are accelerating,” the hydroclimatologist cautioned.
Recent research indicates that the North Atlantic and seas off the UK coast are up to five degrees hotter than average. Although the exact reasons for the unusual warmth are still under investigation, researchers are already considering several contributing factors. These include atmospheric circulation, air pollution, and ongoing climate change trends.
And if that wasn't enough, there's another worrying abnormality: Sea ice in the Antarctic is extremely low for this time of year, 10% lower than usual. According to a recent report on climate records by the BBC, the extent of sea ice in the Antarctic has reached record lows for July, with an area approximately ten times the size of the UK absent compared to the average from 1981 to 2010. One immediate concern arising out of this situation is the potential disruption to the ecosystem and wildlife that depend on sea ice for breeding, feeding, and shelter. Additionally, experts believe that changes in the extent of sea ice can influence ocean circulation patterns, which can have cascading effects on climate and weather systems. In the long run, the decline in sea ice can impact global climate by reducing the Earth's albedo, which refers to its ability to reflect sunlight back into space. As sea ice melts, it exposes darker ocean surfaces, which absorb more heat from the sun, further contributing to warming trends.
According to experts, as oceans and air warm up, evaporation increases, leading to additional moisture. This surplus moisture not only enhances the intensity of storms but also provides them with more fuel, making them stronger.
Political will
Last year, ahead of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change—better known as COP27—UN chief António Guterres urged global leaders to put the world back on track to cut emissions. The UN Secretary-General cautioned that the "planet was heading toward irreversible climate chaos." He emphasized that leaders around the world must “re-establish the ambition needed to avoid driving our planet over the climate cliff.” But has much really changed since then?
Climate scientists and experts have very little faith in the political will and commitment to reduce emissions faster. “The world has not addressed this problem seriously,” said Adil Najam, former Dean, and Professor of International Relations and Earth and Environment at the Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University.
“For those countries or individuals with high emissions, we have to push them to cut their emissions. For those vulnerable, poor communities who haven't contributed as much but are at the forefront of the impacts of climate change, we have to assist in giving them the ability to adapt,” explained Dr. Najam, who now heads the WWF.
From Sweden, Dr. Ashok Swain was equally critical of the lack of genuine commitment. "Developed countries lack genuine interest in resolving the climate change crisis, and their efforts often seem superficial, influenced by social pressure," said Dr. Swain, who serves as a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University.
Commenting on the approach and response by developed nations, Professor Swain said: “While they do comprehend the threat and possess the necessary technology and resources, developed nations tend to believe that being in the northern hemisphere will shield them from severe impacts. Their concerns about security and climate refugees contribute to their reluctance to take more decisive actions.” “Regrettably, substantive steps to address this critical issue have been scarce,” the academic added.
Politicians, according to Dr. Gleick of the Pacific Institute in California, may have other priorities, but they have for too long ignored this problem and the threats it poses to all the other challenges we face.
“All political leaders, especially the leaders of the richer developed countries responsible for most of the dangerous emissions causing climate change, must address this issue more quickly and more effectively, especially accelerating both the transition away from polluting carbon-based energy sources and working to help all countries adapt to those climate impacts we can no longer avoid because of the failure to address this problem decades ago,” Gleick added.
Navigating the Climate Crisis
As humanity and the planet confront a relentless assault from climate change, the looming threat is projected to escalate in the years ahead. Blow after blow from nature makes it evident that the world is heading into more uncertain times. The pressing question arises: Can we effectively adapt to the rising temperatures and extreme heat waves?
“Adaptation is the failure of mitigation. Adaptation is what you do if you don't mitigate. However, adaptation is not the opposite of mitigation,” emphasized WWF’s Dr. Adil Najam. "It's not a choice between adaptation or mitigation; rather, we must undertake both simultaneously. The less we mitigate, the more we'll be compelled to adapt," he explained.
Last year, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) reiterated the significance of robust mitigation and adaptation strategies to evade stringent adaptation limits and growing climate risks, including global warming. The document warned, "Climate adaptation failure puts the world at risk." While UNEP acknowledges progress in adaptation implementation, it has not kept pace with the mounting climate impacts.
Addressing the responsibility of nations and individuals with high emissions, the President of WWF, Dr. Adil Najam, stressed the need to push them to reduce their emissions. He added, "For vulnerable and impoverished communities, who bear the brunt of climate change despite contributing little to the problem, we must provide support to enhance their adaptive capacity."
Professor Ashok Swain of Uppsala University highlighted that climate change is not primarily caused by the actions of developing countries, as they have made minimal contributions to greenhouse gases and emissions. Nevertheless, he stressed the importance of adaptation for developing countries.
“Blaming developed nations alone will not solve the climate crisis. Developing countries must allocate resources and prioritize adaptation efforts, despite facing economic challenges and technological limitations,” Dr. Swain added.
Can countries like Pakistan afford to adapt?
Triggered by unusually heavy monsoon rains and the melting of glaciers, last year, Pakistan experienced devastating floods that resulted in the loss of more than 1,700 lives. The natural disaster caused an estimated ₨ 3.2 trillion ($14.9 billion) in damages and ₨ 3.3 trillion ($15.2 billion) in economic losses. According to experts, both heavy monsoon rains and the melting of glaciers were influenced by climate change and exacerbated by a severe heatwave.
A year later, the country is still grappling with the consequences of the devastating floods that wreaked havoc on its agricultural sector, adding to the already challenging economic crisis and a soaring double-digit inflation. The deluge has left the country battered, even raising concerns of a looming food crisis.
When asked if countries like Pakistan can afford to adapt with all its political and financial issues, Dr. Najam said: “My question is not whether we can afford to adapt, can we afford not to adapt?”
“It's true that the cause of the problem matters, but when a fellow Pakistani's life is at stake, when their homes are destroyed by floods, droughts, or heatwaves, the urgency to adapt and find solutions becomes paramount. We must acknowledge that this problem is ours to deal with. While we hold those responsible accountable, we cannot simply sit back and say, I didn't cause it, so it's not my concern. We must take ownership because these are our people,” he explained.
Pressuring countries with high emissions to reduce their carbon footprint, he said, is important. “However, our pleas and demands will carry weight only when we demonstrate that we, too, are taking proactive steps to address the crisis. Words alone are not enough; action is essential. Only then can we truly lead by example and inspire others to follow suit,” Dr. Najam added.
Responding to the question Uppsala University’s Dr. Swain said: “Developed countries have yet to fully acknowledge or compensate for their historical wrongdoings, such as colonial rule.”
“While developing countries may hope that developed nations will shoulder the responsibility for the climate crisis, the reality is that developing countries must take action to adapt to the changing climate situation,” he added
Despite facing economic challenges and technological deficiencies, Dr. Swain pointed out that developing nations need to prioritize resources and implement strategies to adapt to the emerging climate change impacts.
“Merely blaming developed countries will not suffice; it is crucial for developing nations to take proactive measures to address the climate crisis and protect their populations from its adverse effects,” he added.
Great economies, greater responsibility?
Last week, John Kerry, President Biden's climate change envoy, concluded high-level talks with Chinese officials, focusing on collaborative approaches to address climate change amidst ongoing tensions between the two world powers.
Both Washington and Beijing hold the distinction of being the world's largest greenhouse gas emitters and are also recognized as global green tech leaders. Experts believe that if these two countries can reach an agreement to accelerate efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the implications could be significant for the world's ability to remain within safe limits of global warming. Many analysts believe that the outcome of Kerry's recent visit could have far-reaching consequences for the planet's future in the face of the climate crisis.
“Limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C requires both the US and China to collaborate on mitigation efforts,” said Dr. Ashok Swain of Uppsala University. Despite President Biden's decision to rejoin the Paris Agreement, his confrontational approach towards China, Dr. Swain said, creates obstacles to global climate progress.
“It is crucial for these two major players in financing development worldwide to cooperate on climate issues and adaptation measures. Unfortunately, the lack of collaboration between the US and China on climate matters has persisted from the Trump era into the Biden era, posing challenges to achieving meaningful progress on climate mitigation,” the sweden-based academic added.
In the realm of climate discussions, much of the focus is on major economies like China and the US, considering their significant roles as major greenhouse gas emitters and leading economic powerhouses. Experts believe that if these two countries can find common ground on climate issues, it could yield profound outcomes for the world.
Commenting on this, WWF’s Dr. Adil Najam said: “A critical aspect of the climate problem lies both at the national and individual levels. While we often discuss emissions on a country-by-country basis, it's essential to recognize that countries don't make people's choices.”
“Pakistan, for example, Dr. Najam said, doesn't dictate individual actions. “People in different regions may have varying levels of carbon footprint, some higher and some lower, thus averaging it out.”
According to Dr. Najam, the Chinese perspective highlights an intriguing dimension: “They argue that the emissions produced during the manufacturing of goods are directly linked to the consumption patterns of other countries. In essence, they question whether emissions from products consumed in Pakistan or the US should be solely attributed to China, or whether the responsibility extends to the countries purchasing those goods.”
While holding countries and corporations accountable for their contributions to climate change is crucial, Dr. Najam pointed out that individual responsibility is equally significant.
“We must acknowledge our consumption habits and behaviors, as they play a role in the overall emissions picture. The path to addressing the climate crisis requires collaboration at multiple levels and a shared sense of responsibility among nations, corporations, and individuals alike,” he concluded.
However, despite all these records constantly being broken, scientists believe that the climate is still not in total collapse. They emphasize that it is time to use the solutions we have to keep the planet as livable as possible.