Steering the country toward stability

One of the major tasks of the incoming government, after the elections, would be to focus on improving the economy and addressing the security situation. The two are inter-related as weak economy exasperates the security environment and feeds the narrative of the militant. Militancy in turn blocks foreign and local investment, and the government to counter the threat siphons national resources in security-related endeavours.

Pakistan has been caught in this dilemma of balancing its meagre resources; and this would be a challenge for the incoming government after general elections. Successive governments have mostly relied on the IMF and friendly nations to bail us out. The present setup too managed to negotiate a $3 billion IMF loan. And most likely, the incoming government too will be relying heavily on foreign assistance.

It is however time for Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership to do serious introspection and devise a workable strategy that sheds this unending economic dependence. Economic fragility has pulled Pakistan down and is severely throttling the potential of its people. Meagre allocations by provincial governments on education, health and infrastructure are not only affecting the present but future generations as well. Scarce resources, in the long term, do affect a country’s defence and security. What is most surprising is that there is such indifference toward these fundamental issues that are the bedrock of a nation.

Is it possible that the coming national elections, instead of being fought on petty issues and personal targeting, raise substantive issues of economy, security, law and order, governance, education, health and those that affect the masses and discuss programmes and their viability. Merely, criticising and bad-mouthing the opponents is not enough. In fact, it has a demoralising affect and draws away people from voting. The role of media, especially social media, would be critical in raising awareness, showing a direction that is in the best interest of the country. Lead has to come from major TV networks and radio channels where future programmes and past performance is scrutinised. Interest in elections will be created among the masses and their confidence restored if they consider leaders are credible and people-centric. And above all, their preference will be for the party that is serious about their well-being and safety. So far, at least in the rural areas it is the local leadership that influences the political preferences.

The role of the election commission is critical. The commission chairman has repeatedly assured free and fair elections but much would depend on the conduct and oversight of the ground staff. It would also depend on the conduct of the political parties, ensuring that they do not draw in institutions, as has been our past history and stay within constitutional limits.

However, in the present situation keeping Imran Khan out of the run and dismantling his party is certainly not in the country’s interest and would make elections a mere paper formality. For whom can we then convince including our own conscience that the elections were free and fair and the government in place has the support of the people. In the past, Nawaz Sharif had met a similar fate and he was kept out of elections, but we never learn. No country has progressed that strayed away from well-defined and proven democratic practices and constitutional obligations. We do not even have to look elsewhere; our own place in the comity of nations remains diminished and one major reason is the distortion of established political norms.

Recently, the name of Finance Minister Ishaq Dar is being mentioned as the interim PM. It is not certain how authentic the news is, hopefully merely a rumour. For nothing could be more damaging for the fidelity of the national elections if this is true and reinforce the shallowness of Pakistan’s democratic culture. It would be a blatant violation of accepted practices and would be a slur on Nawaz Sharif who in the past has been championing the cause of democracy. The opposition of PPP is based on principle and one expects that PML-N will review its decision. Dar Sahib can be made the PM if the party wins which in the present circumstances, with major opposition decapacitated, is more or less a certainty.

The incoming civilian government will be faced with serious security issues and in close cooperation with the military it should take measures to counter these effectively. Since the interim set-up has taken over, the security policies and oversight of the operations in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan against the TTP and Baloch dissidents have been mostly left to the army leadership to tackle. Lately, the TTP has expanded its activities and has certain areas near the border under its control which should be a matter of concern. Due to the strong bonds between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP leadership, the latter are enjoying full freedom and are using Afghanistan as a sanctuary to launch frequent attacks across the border. The loss of life due to militancy has reached a stage where a policy reappraisal is necessary. A revised comprehensive counterterrorism strategy needs to be developed and implemented in right earnest. It should draw from the experience of past years and aim at building the capabilities of the civilian law enforcement and the judicial system. While military operations against TTP operatives is necessary, there should be a genuine effort to engage in dialogue based on certain laid-down principles for negotiations with those groups that may be willing to cease violence.

On the eastern border, relations with India remain frozen due to PM Modi’s refusal to engage. For the incoming government, one of the major tasks would be to explore the possibility of breaking this freeze. A meaningful interaction with a boost in trade and relaxation in travel could gradually soften hostility.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 26^th, 2023.

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