Where do we go from here?
The IMF programme has come through, money is flowing from friendly countries and the PDM government has promised to hand over power to a caretaker government next month. Elections are up next. Everything kind of feels like it’s coming together for Pakistan on the surface but scratch that surface and the wounds of the last 18 months will begin to bleed again. Can the most popular party in the country participate in the elections? We don’t have a straight answer to that question.
How did we get here? Was the original sin May 9th or the VONC or the 2018 elections or somewhere in the late 1950s? That depends on who you ask and that’s the problem. We are so intensely polarised that we can’t even answer the basic questions that will begin to heal the political fabric of our country. While the actual state of play for the next 12 months is unclear, the best case scenario is absolutely crystal clear — that there are free and fair elections in the country that are violence free and the winner’s mandate is accepted by all parties. Is that too much to ask? If you are born Pakistani, the answer apparently, is yes. That’s too much to ask.
So, what are the likely pathways forward from here given our soil doesn’t lend itself to best case scenarios. First, the caretaker government could just come in and drag their feet on elections. This is what the powers that be might want but all three major political parties are likely to oppose this, despite their differences. If they agitate on the streets, it’s unlikely for the elections to be postponed indefinitely. Not to mention that it would be unconstitutional to delay elections. This means — barring any emergencies — elections will take place this year.
What will these elections look like? That depends on whether the dark and handsome horse is allowed to run. Months after May 9th and a year after being hounded by the courts, he doesn’t appear to be shackled and seems to be finding his swagger again. He’s the perennial underdog and after being all set to win the elections, he’s suddenly not expected to win and that’s what makes him so dangerous to come from behind and still sweep the elections.
The big question then is: will he be allowed to run or will he be disqualified? It appears that there was some kind of quid pro quo with PTI backing the IMF programme and the Prime Minister swiftly committing to leaving government next month. This means international pressure is coming to fruition on not letting he who must not be named to be disqualified from being a political player. Many are arguing that support for him and his party has been decimated. That there’s no way that he’s going to come back from this. I’d argue that his support hasn’t vanished, it’s simply gone underground. And this time it’s not just power politics but also personal.
This means that either he who must not be named or at least his party will be allowed to contest elections. I believe that he who must not be named will be allowed to run elections personally too because his opponents falsely underestimate his strength and think he’s the weakest at this stage. They’ll want him to run because they think he’s going to lose and not having him run will mean the elections will lose their legitimacy and credibility. But he’s going to give them a better fight in the elections than most neutral observers anticipate. He’s going to win marginally or come close to winning.
Unfortunately, in Pakistan, winning isn’t enough though. You also have to blessed and that’s where round three of instability is going to begin. I do think with a fresh, popular mandate the tables are going to turn. And after a period temporary instability, he who must not be named will be named Prime Minister.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 23rd, 2023.
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