The Russia-Ukraine war: possible scenarios

Despite what the Sage said the aggression and territorial annexation can never be condoned, especially in the backdrop of the UN Charter, international covenants, treaties and norms.

Though the wars are devastating and cause human misery and suffering, these continue as ‘real politic’ practice by the mighty and powerful.

Notwithstanding the sufficient war indicators, Russian invasion of Ukraine had been termed as a surprise by few.

Was it really a surprise? More intriguing question could be: has Russia been induced into aggression so as to be embroiled in Ukraine like Afghanistan of 1979-1989? Russian invasion has brought some default advantages like rejuvenation of NATO and thriving of Military Industrial Complexes too.

The War has entered into 16th month.

The world views it from multiple individual lenses.

The US and EU consider it a blatant aggression against a sovereign country, and an attempt to annex Ukrainian territory.

Russia considers it as its right to deter NATO’s impending expansion to its borders.

Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014 was a step in the same direction that extended Russian strategic capability into Black Sea.

Ukraine, with military economic political and moral support of the US, EU and allies, has displayed grit and tenacity to fight back.

It has formally applied for NATO’s membership, though it may take long.

The US Congressional Research Service report May 15, 2023 carries details on EU sanctions on Russia.

These include: freezing assets of 207 entities, including key banks, 1,473 Russian officials and elites; restrictions on debt, equity and transactions with Russia’s central bank, blocking access to its reserve; disconnecting 10 leading Russian financial institutions including Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank from SWIFT; export controls on dual-use goods and technologies; banning certain exports in the aviation, maritime and technology sectors e.g. semiconductors, export of drone engines, luxury goods; prohibiting imports of steel, spirits, seafood, gold, asphalt and synthetic rubber; closing EU airspace, seaports and roads to Russian aircraft, ships and freight operators, respectively; and suspending broadcasting activities of nine Russian state-owned media outlets.

According to the Kiel Institute for The World Economy, as of May 2023, the EU, its member states and European financial institutions have collectively mobilised €37.8 billion in financial, humanitarian and emergency assistance for Ukraine.

The May 19, 2023 report by US Council on Foreign Relations states that the US has so far given $75 billion aid, which encompasses humanitarian, financial and military support.

However, objections by the republicans on providing too much aid to Ukraine are growing.

The US sanctions against Russia haven’t worked well.

Many countries, like India, despite being the US strategic partner, are importing Russian oil.

The grain, fertilisers and energy starved countries are affected due to disturbed supply chains and rising costs.

Pre-war 80% of Russian gas was flowing through Ukraine.

Ukraine used to get billions as rent.

Interestingly despite war, the Russian gas continues to be exported through these conduits, albeit at a slower pace and lesser scale.

Though not in sight yet, many countries, affected directly or indirectly by this war, may wish to see an end to it.

The Pope, China and Turkey have been joined by President Ramaphosa of South Africa in this quest.

Africa usually follows hands-off approach on such issues.

However, they made a bid to end the war through negotiations, and find a way out to the issues of grain and fertiliser supply that has been severely restricted, intensifying global food insecurity.

Africa that depends on import of both the commodities has the suffered the most.

The African initiative was prompted by a French businessman, Jean-Yves Ollivier, in December 2022.

A delegation comprising four African heads of states visited Kyiv and Saint Petersburg to meet President Zelenskyy and President Putin.

While Putin said Russia was open to talks, Zelenskyy declined the possibility of a dialogue until Russian troops withdrew from his country.

Hence a stalemate.

How this war may evolve can be discussed in three possible scenarios: 1) War perpetuates at the current pace — most probable; till Russia bleeds, gets frustrated and vacates occupied territories.

2) Negotiated settlement — win-win; possible due to internal issues faced by Russia and the EU, socio-economic problems encountered or likely to be faced.

3) Surge and escalation in war; war engulfs EU and spills over EU borders.

Russia has recently announced its plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

In case the war escalates to nuclear domain, it will be a doomsday scenario, not only for the warring sates and EU, but the world.

Nuclear winter could engulf billions of people and square kilometres for countless years.

In all eventualities, the worst sufferers of the war are and would surely be the EU countries.

Whatever the casus belli and the great powers’ ends are, the Ukrainian suffer and so do the people of Russia because of sanctions, general mobilisation and cost of war.

Multiple countries including Pakistan suffer too due to cost of war, rising food, oil, gas and fertiliser prices.

Hence, an early end of the war should be the desired way forward.