Existential threat
The writer is a public policy analyst based in Lahore. She tweets @durdananajam
On July 3, Monday, the average global temperature reached 17C (63F) after a gap of seven years. In August 2016, the worldwide temperature had gone to the highest average of 16.9C, according to National Centres for Environmental Predication data. The threshold survived barely a day; on Tuesday, the average temperature hit 17.2C.
Climate change is an existential threat. No more a concept debated and experienced from data shared in seminars and big conferences.
In the beginning, climate changes were justified as part of development and economic growth. Later, the notions of the right to freedom, equality and human rights were also used as shields to keep the climate talk at a distance. Wars, conflicts and mayhem, wherein tons of ammunition were used, multiplied the incidence of climate change. However, since each of these exploits was carried out either to defend a democratic value or to suppress tyranny, the ensuing environmental hazards and climate-related disasters were conveniently brushed under the carpet.
The impact of climate change is not identical everywhere. Some parts of the world are less affected by climate hazards, whereas others are highly vulnerable to climate-induced disasters or hazards. For instance, communities living in countries of the Global South have a high probability of getting affected by the vagaries of climate change.
Climate extremes have different variations. Sometimes a climate-related disaster emerges in a single pattern, such as extreme precipitation resulting in heavy rainfall. At some other time, extreme precipitation and winds emerge, causing massive infrastructural damage — likewise, storm surge, precipitation or river discharge in concert results in coastal floods. In like manner, a combination of a heat wave and drought banishes trees. Warming is also caused by what is called ‘positive climate feedback’. Wildfires, dying trees and the thawing of tundra permafrost because of high temperatures produce more carbon as dead material decomposes or is burned.
The human and economic consequences of Climate-Related Disasters (CRD) have been profound and intense.
The World Health Organization (WHO) defines a disaster as “an act of nature of such magnitude as to create a catastrophic situation in which the day-to-day patterns of life are suddenly disrupted, and people are plunged into helplessness and suffering, and, as a result, food, clothing, shelter, medical and nursing care and other necessities of life, and protection against unfavourable environmental factors and conditions become distinct.”
Natural disasters are often confused with natural hazards. A natural hazard is “unexpected and uncontrollable, relatively rare events that have substantial impacts on the environment at a global or regional scale, whereas natural hazards may not directly impact human lives. Thus, all-natural disasters are considered natural hazards; however, the opposite is invalid.”
Climate change disasters affected 100 million people in 2020 alone. It incurred an economic loss of $190 billion and caused 15,082 deaths in one year. Half of these CRDs comprised hydrologic hazards (floods and landslides); 40 per cent involved meteorological hazards (temperature extremes, fog, and storms); and 10 per cent were associated with climatological hazards (drought and wildfires).
The impact of climate change affects human well-being, especially of the marginalised and vulnerable.
Studies show unresolved climate change conditions will push 130 million people into poverty over the next ten years.
Urban dwellers are equally as vulnerable as those living in rural areas. The only difference is that, in the case of the former, it increases the likelihood of persistent poverty and prolonged rehabilitation processes. The impact on cities ranges from storms, storm surges, floods and landslides to wildfires. These events are predicted to happen frequently and with severity in the future.
In the medium term, cities located in the coastal areas will be inundated due to rising sea levels. In the longer term, the climatic impact will affect agriculture and biodiversity. Costs for maintenance and reconstruction are likely to increase.
In 2014 according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 6th assessment report), heat waves were responsible for the death of 45,000 flying foxes in a single day in Australia.
Therefore if we fail to limit global warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C, the rising incidence of natural disasters because of changes in temperature and precipitation will continue to cause damages and losses to human beings and biodiversity.
Since the onset of the industrial revolution, followed by mass production and electricity generation, the emission of CO2 has increased manifold. Researchers have estimated that between 1970 and 2002, global emissions increased by over 70%. The sad news is that even today, coal is the largest electricity producer.
There is no sign of its early replacement by renewable energy. Experts do not see it happening before 2040. Even then, it is predicted that 58 per cent of electricity will be produced using fossil fuels.
Moreover, some industrial processes, such as cement manufacturing, involve heating calcium carbonate to generate calcium oxide and carbon dioxide.
Jérôme Haegeli, Group Chief Economist, Swiss Re, says: “Climate Change is a systemic risk for the whole world. Unlike the COVID-19 crisis, it does not have an expiry date.”
Published in The Express Tribune, July 6th, 2023.
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