Russia’s deployment of TNWs in Belarus

As the Russia-Ukraine war rages on, Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently stated that Russia intends to station its tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) in Belarus. It is believed that the construction work for deploying these weapons will be completed by July, followed by the process of stationing the TNWs. Russia has also considered training the Belarusian armed forces on how to launch the TNWs and operate nuclear-capable aircraft. However, it is believed that all TNWs may be under direct Russian command and control. Considering the geo-strategic location of Belarus, which shares borders with NATO countries such as Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania, in addition to its extensive common border with Russia and Ukraine, there can be several theoretical explanations for Russia taking such drastic measures.

First, it can be seen as Russian nuclear deterrence signaling to the US and its European NATO allies that Russia possesses and relies on nuclear forces, especially given the increasing conventional asymmetry between Russia, the US, and its NATO countries. It can be presumed that a nuclear state in a conventional force disadvantaged position would rely more on nuclear weapons for deterrence purposes.

Russian security leadership would expect that relying heavily on nuclear weapons use, as part of its emerging nuclear doctrinal posture “escalate to de-escalate,” would successfully deter the US and its European allies. This means that Russia has the deterrent force wherewithal to escalate the crisis, thereby continuing to possess the capability to de-escalate the crisis as well, without potentially risking defeat or accidental nuclear war. Russia’s potential adversaries would critique this deterrent posturing for obvious reasons.

Second, Russia may desire to follow the similar parameters of the US, which has already stationed its TNWs in many European countries. It can be seen as a tit-for-tat strategy. The Russian security leadership believes that the US has deployed more than 500 TNWs in Europe, while US security analysts presume that Russia has around 2500 TNWs. The US continues to station these weapons in those countries, and a similar notion is not part of the New Start Treaty between the US and Russia.

As the New Start Treaty between the two nuclear rivals is not functioning properly and is in a state of limbo, both sides could further exploit the weaknesses inherited in the treaty. Both sides have already done away with the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty. This means that both sides would not only continue to build sophisticated missile defense systems but also build short-range nuclear-capable missiles.

Third, although the Russian economy is weaker as compared to the US and its NATO allies, the Russian invasion of Georgia and Ukraine reflects Russia’s resurgence in the international system. Besides, Russia possesses many sophisticated nuclear delivery systems, which it can potentially threaten to use. Intending to deploy TNWs in Belarus indicates Russia’s power projection and escalating dominance against the US and its NATO allies.

Finally, this can be a clear reflection of Russia’s longstanding security concern about the US and its NATO allies’ attempts to integrate Ukraine into the NATO security system. Considering this, Russia aims to prevent Ukraine from becoming part of the NATO alliance, which otherwise could endanger Russia’s vital security interests.

All of this noted, Russia’s intention to station its TNWs is perceived to meet security-related objectives. Therefore, until a broader negotiation occurs between Russia, the US and its NATO allies to help resolve the Ukraine issue, Russia appears adamant not to withdraw its forces. It will continue to occupy important parts of Ukraine that best serve its military strategy.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 3^rd, 2023.

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