Will India play a US game?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Washington recently. This was the first state visit by Modi, the highest protocol the US accords to foreign dignitaries. He also addressed the joint sitting of the Congress. The lavish visit and red carpet welcome for a leader, who was once barred from entering the US because of his alleged role in anti-Muslim riots in 2002 as Chief Minister of Gujarat State, perfectly sums up the phrase — in international relations there are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies.

The US-India bilateral relationship has seen many ups and downs over the years. The dramatic shift in their ties came only at the turn of the 21st century when China slowly but surely started challenging the hegemony of the US. India having border disputes with China also feels threatened by the growing rise of Beijing. While the US needs India to counterbalance China, New Delhi wants Washington’s support to keep Beijing at bay. India being the most populous country and a growing economy is certainly an attractive market for the US and other countries but the major factor that has brought these two countries together indeed is China. The US hopes that deepening defence and other cooperation with India would protect its geo-strategic and economic interests. The visit of Modi was not only rich in optics but some substantive decisions were taken.

For example, General Electric of the US and India’s state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited will manufacture advanced fighter jet engines in India for the country’s indigenous light combat aircraft. The US has also agreed to set up a facility in India to produce battle-tested armed drones. For decades, Russia remained the major supplier of arms to India with 65 per cent share only a few years ago. That has now come down to 45 per cent while the US share has jumped from 1 per cent to 11 per cent. The other major decision taken during Modi’s visit was that US memory chip giant Micron Technology will invest up to $825 million to build a semiconductor assembly and test facility in India, creating thousands of jobs.

This indicates that the US is not only willing to sell arms to India but is not averse to the idea of transferring technology, something that has already raised alarm bells in Pakistan. The US arms sale and transfer of technologies to India may be aimed at China but the development will certainly upset the military balance in South Asia. Pakistan feels that deepening US-India defence ties is a direct threat to its national security. The US is certainly not bothered much as it is looking to achieve the bigger objective — to tame China. In fact just a day after Modi wrapped up his visit to the US, the Indian army violated the ceasefire along LoC. This was the first known transgression since the two countries agreed to renew the truce in February 2021. The statement issued by ISPR indicated that the Indian move was linked to its burgeoning defence ties with the US. “Driven by a new found geo-political patronage, India forces have embarked on a plan to take innocent lives to satiate their false narratives and concocted allegations.”

This suggests that tensions may flare up between Pakistan and India.

Meanwhile, the key question is: will India play for the US in its rivalry against China? During the visit, Modi opted not to name China or Russia, but he did make indirect references to both countries. Since its independence, India took pride in its non-aligned approach and maintaining a sovereign autonomy. The US would certainly want change in that approach. Observers believe that India’s interests may be aligned with the US but it is unlikely to completely join the US camp. In fact, India is following a shrewd policy taking advantage of the US vulnerabilities.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 26^th, 2023.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.