The rich man’s failed revolution
Actions have consequences. The problem with our habit of offering ball-by-ball commentary is that we often miss forests for trees. But when the penny drops, as it must, we are stuck in the no man’s land between denial and bargaining.
Two elements are intriguing. This country’s elite. And this country’s liberal class. The socially liberal, politically conservative, religiously superstitious, economically selfish elite is a wonder, as no other class has been treated so kindly by this state. Yet, it was out on May 9, promising to burn everything down. The purpose was just, they say. They wanted to bring about a revolution. Yes, the same folks who ask their underage maids or babysitters to turn their backs to avert evil eye when they eat at fancy, upscale restaurants. They ought to answer two questions. What is the point of a revolution if not to empower the same class they oppress? And when has the subcontinent in the five thousand years of its history ever produced a half-decent revolution?
And the liberal class has always been portrayed as the enemy of the national identity. The enemy of modesty and propriety, even family values and the national interest, essentially a security risk. And yet this class of insufferable misfits refuses to quit. You will not find any liberal trying to blow himself up to make a political point. Nor try to burn down military installations. But they are not forgiven.
Almost a year ago, at an Islamabad think tank, when an anchor colleague particularly close to the previous government repeatedly insisted that the country was in the throes of worst state repression and then thundered out, a senior diplomat turned to me to ask if things were really that bad in the Islamic republic. I told him that the situation was about the same as ever. But throughout the country’s history, a privileged class was constantly sheltered by the state. Since it was now exposed to the same rigours of life faced by everyone else, it thought the sky was falling. The good ambassador smiled and conceded the point.
This pampered elite finally took the matter too far on May 9. There are layers of what transpired on that day and what was planned that are still coming to light. And when the true scope of the catastrophe it entailed is known, detractors will likely find some closure. The reports from Mianwali and the outskirts of Peshawar are particularly stunning.
Conservatives in several societies have learned a new trick. They flood the public square with truckloads of conspiracy garbage to befuddle the public mind and deflect attention from the severity of the crimes committed. It has been known to work in the past.
One prominent example of this is the January 6 insurrection. It is one thing for Tucker Carlson to play edited parts of the US Capitol footage and claim that the insurrectionists were gormless tourists at the wrong place at the wrong time, but altogether another to relive the moment. Those were tense times. Incidents of the militant far right and white nationalist hate crimes were rising. From Boogaloo Bois to Jon Voight, countless elements called and even pushed for a second civil war. In fact, it wasn’t until General Milley and other service chiefs put out a public statement in support of the democratic process that this crisis abated. We even know today that there were active attempts to divide the armed forces. Had they succeeded, the storming of the US Capitol could have triggered a devastating civil war.
Now back to May 9. It is easy to reduce a nationwide violent disruption to a single act of arson — namely, the burning of the corps commander’s house. The human mind is known to play this trick. The collapse of Margalla Towers became the face of the 2005 earthquake. Swat’s collapsing hotels encapsulated the 2022 floods. Similarly, the US Capitol symbolised what went on in the US. But the accurate scale of the tragedy is not known for years.
It is important to note how authorities are viewing the whole episode, and for that, you have to take stock of the actions, statements and insinuations in the past one year. There is enough evidence to suggest that the purpose was to manufacture a coup within the military ranks to violently overthrow the civil and military leadership. At least in theory, the outcome would have been final and absolute. But as things go in actual life, this could easily lead to a civil war. When coups fail, we downplay their significance. But you do not need to be a rocket scientist to know what would have happened had they succeeded or botched it in a way that it spun out of control
This is not the first time an attempt was made to divide the armed forces. But two things are important to remember. One, that such attempts never succeed. Two, the armed forces do not forget or forgive such attempts easily. Ask the two populist leaders in the past that came close to doing something similar.
So, if you are labouring under the delusion that the changes the country is undergoing might be temporary, then you need to understand this moment in history. The state may look weaker today, but in security terms, it is far more potent than Gen Musharraf’s time after facing two decades of insurgency and terrorism. The argument that you need political stability to have economic stability is not as democratic as you might like to think. There are many ways to manufacture political stability. Not all of them are as savoury. As for the concerns regarding economic and diplomatic isolation, guess who helped successive civilian governments get financial bailouts from other countries and institutions recently? Ever wondered how or why?
Misinterpreting auguries can lead to miscalculations. Our pampered class of revolutionaries unleashed a chain of events on May 9 that have not stopped unfolding yet. If the purpose was to divide the state to overpower it, these events had the exact opposite effect. It has resulted in a remarkable level of unity and consolidation. Some genius plan, really. And the proponents of conspiracy theories forget we have seen trailers of what went down on May 9 in protests immediately after Mr Khan’s ouster on April 10, 2022, and at Zaman Park on March 14.
The rich man’s failed coup could have easily ended democracy in the country, but so far, it hasn’t. Small mercies. It is crucial to remain circumspect and not get swept by emotions.
The January 6 insurrection, recent violent protests in France and May 9 share many patterns. Interestingly, none of the countries in the Russian orbit, including India, has witnessed anything similar. Democracies may eventually see this pattern, but their detractors and conspirators already know which country belongs to which side. So I will not lose sleep over Pakistan’s image abroad just yet.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 3rd, 2023.
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