The numbers game
KARACHI:
The committee, constituted by the government with the task to probe allegations of manipulating economic growth figures, has cleared the state. However, the committee asked the Federal Bureau of Statistics to check the methodology of calculating the data.
The committee is headed by the Deputy Chairman Planning Commission, Dr Nadeemul Haq, which puts a big question mark, not because of any doubt about his credibility but due to his association with a department linked to the government. It would have been better had the government formed an independent panel led by an economist not associated with any government institution or political party.
If we assume that the growth figure of 4.1 per cent for fiscal 2009-10, cleared by the committee, is correct, then the sheer composition of the panel takes credibility out of it. More important than the numbers game is the real economic strength that we need to cope with the challenges of the present competitive environment.
Economies the world over, particularly the developed world, have been under stress in recent times and many have tasted the flavour of recession. If Pakistan also experiences a slow growth, it is no exception. The Asian Development Bank, in its book launched a couple of weeks ago, also said that cyclical downturns will occur and it is critical that “we plan accordingly.” It said that the policy-makers must use the current rebound as an opportunity to make the region’s future growth more inclusive.
Federal Bureau of Statistics
The Federal Bureau of Statistics is also a government organisation and there have been persistent calls for a year or two to make it an autonomous body free from any political influence. This body’s independence could also somewhat serve the purpose in this particular case as its data might not have invited many questions.
An autonomous body with professionals and experts inducted from the private sector is the pressing need of the day because its data will not only be accepted by the country but also by multilateral lenders and the international community.
Yes, the significance of authentic data is much more these days because Pakistan has been under the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) loan programme of $11.3 billion since November 2008. The IMF and other donors are keeping a close watch on the economic data and any misadventure may put a halt to the programme, under which the lender has so far disbursed $7.6 billion.
Will the data work
Does the government think the wrong figures, if any, will make ordinary people to believe that the country has crossed the stumbling blocks and started marching on a high growth path. Time will tell whether the economy is improving or not and people will see for themselves the fruits of economic growth or problems of economic woes.
The ordinary people do not seem to be much concerned about figures, what they need is a permanent job, reasonable clothing and a shelter. The economic data will please them only when the benefits of high growth trickle down to all sections of society.
In addition to that, they hope for a peaceful Pakistan without the daily targeted killings, bomb blasts, violence and political instability. When the security issues are tackled, the economy will improve automatically as local and foreign investors will rush to look for opportunities of pouring money into lucrative business areas.
Published in The Exprss Tribune, June 28th, 2010.
The committee, constituted by the government with the task to probe allegations of manipulating economic growth figures, has cleared the state. However, the committee asked the Federal Bureau of Statistics to check the methodology of calculating the data.
The committee is headed by the Deputy Chairman Planning Commission, Dr Nadeemul Haq, which puts a big question mark, not because of any doubt about his credibility but due to his association with a department linked to the government. It would have been better had the government formed an independent panel led by an economist not associated with any government institution or political party.
If we assume that the growth figure of 4.1 per cent for fiscal 2009-10, cleared by the committee, is correct, then the sheer composition of the panel takes credibility out of it. More important than the numbers game is the real economic strength that we need to cope with the challenges of the present competitive environment.
Economies the world over, particularly the developed world, have been under stress in recent times and many have tasted the flavour of recession. If Pakistan also experiences a slow growth, it is no exception. The Asian Development Bank, in its book launched a couple of weeks ago, also said that cyclical downturns will occur and it is critical that “we plan accordingly.” It said that the policy-makers must use the current rebound as an opportunity to make the region’s future growth more inclusive.
Federal Bureau of Statistics
The Federal Bureau of Statistics is also a government organisation and there have been persistent calls for a year or two to make it an autonomous body free from any political influence. This body’s independence could also somewhat serve the purpose in this particular case as its data might not have invited many questions.
An autonomous body with professionals and experts inducted from the private sector is the pressing need of the day because its data will not only be accepted by the country but also by multilateral lenders and the international community.
Yes, the significance of authentic data is much more these days because Pakistan has been under the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) loan programme of $11.3 billion since November 2008. The IMF and other donors are keeping a close watch on the economic data and any misadventure may put a halt to the programme, under which the lender has so far disbursed $7.6 billion.
Will the data work
Does the government think the wrong figures, if any, will make ordinary people to believe that the country has crossed the stumbling blocks and started marching on a high growth path. Time will tell whether the economy is improving or not and people will see for themselves the fruits of economic growth or problems of economic woes.
The ordinary people do not seem to be much concerned about figures, what they need is a permanent job, reasonable clothing and a shelter. The economic data will please them only when the benefits of high growth trickle down to all sections of society.
In addition to that, they hope for a peaceful Pakistan without the daily targeted killings, bomb blasts, violence and political instability. When the security issues are tackled, the economy will improve automatically as local and foreign investors will rush to look for opportunities of pouring money into lucrative business areas.
Published in The Exprss Tribune, June 28th, 2010.