Karnataka election upset
Congress party appears to have pulled a massive upset in Karnataka, retaking power in one of India’s most economically and politically significant states. While most experts had been projecting a Congress victory around election day, nobody thought it would be a rout — pre- and post-election polling data suggested a reasonable victory margin, but the BJP’s infamous bag of dirty tricks was expected to allow it to limit the margin. Instead, interim results show Congress has won 135 of 224 constituencies, or over 60% of the assembly seats in the state of 60 million people, whose capital is the Asian tech hub of Bangalore.
Election watchers are also considering how significant the result will be ahead of next year’s national elections, as PM Narendra Modi seeks a third term. Although the BJP has dominated politics in northern India, Karnataka was the only one of the country’s five southern states where it led a government. Also, the unique political factors of the state were very much at play — Congress was unified while the BJP had major infighting, and there was significant anti-incumbent sentiment, driven by the instability of the BJP-led coalition that has led the state for the last five years. There was also pushback against a last-minute anti-Muslim push. Modi and other leaders ‘marketed’ a much-derided piece of Bollywood propaganda, but their salesmanship failed to inspire the Hindutva base and instead mobilised secular voters who were disgusted by the smear campaign.
Meanwhile, Congress has not made significant national-level inroads. Even now, it only leads four of the country’s 28 state governments. While the party will probably end up being a legitimate opposition in the Centre again — the Lok Sabha currently has no official opposition leader because despite being the second-largest party in the house, Congress does not have 10% of the seats, required for a party to nominate a member to the post. This is why, even though the momentum is now with Congress, 2024 will still be a rebuilding year for the party, and Modi will get his coveted third term.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 16th, 2023.
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