Will delaying Punjab polls help PML-N?
If no financial turnaround is in sight then the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) led government should immediately head towards elections to save itself from further political damage, several former PML-N MPAs believe.
As the PML-N led coalition government in the Centre has decided to delay elections in Punjab by denying funds and security to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), the chances of elections taking place in Punjab on May 14 on the order of the Supreme Court are very slim.
A number of local PML-N leaders, however, do not view it as a prudent move.
They feel the rising inflation is fast eroding the popularity of their party and the specter of a whitewash at the hands of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is looming large.
They believe that the PML-N’s base of political support is still pretty much intact.
However, the worsening financial situation that has made eking out a living difficult for most people of the country is eating into the said support base.
A former MPA from Lahore who requested not to be named said people do not say anything to his face, but he is getting the feedback of his constituents indirectly.
He said his constituency largely comprises rural areas, where the PTI was non-existent a few years ago. However, now its popularity is on the rise.
Though the PTI’s popularity does not pose any real threat to him for now but if inflation is not reined in, then the tables could turn. Nothing should be ruled out in politics, he added. “We just cannot blame the PTI for everything after a year. People don’t buy it.”
“The PML-N has always delivered on its promises and always managed to bring down prices of food items; so hopes were very high when we took over. However, given that thus far we have failed to fulfill our promises, people are losing faith in us,” he conceded.
He said the party should do a cost benefit analysis. If there is nothing it can do for whatever the reason to fix the economy then it should take the country towards general elections, or at least allow elections in Punjab to take place.
He said if damage control was not possible, then the policy of damage containment should be adopted. The only way to contain the damage is to allow elections.
He said the MPAs from Lahore have been asked to complete party reorganization by next week.
“We have been advised to propose names of provincial constituency presidents, union council presidents and ward presidents. There has been no word from the party leadership regarding general elections.”
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Two former MPAs—both of which belong to areas regarded as the party strongholds—said in their respective areas—Gujranwala and Narowal—the party's base of political support is completely intact. In fact, they feel they are in a better position now than they were in 2018.
Both party leaders concurred that people are not saying much to their faces but there has been chatter amongst the workers about the PML-N’s failure to deliver.
The MPA from Gujrawala said Pakistan is at that cusp of a disaster. “We should leave aside our personnel differences and work for the country. Pitting one institution against another is creating chaos.”
He said if there is no workable plan for fixing the economy then the party should not impede elections.
He said the prices of essential commodities are going through the roof, and this was something that was out of their control. Mere assurance would not assuage the suffering of people.
He said if people take to the streets against our government, things will spiral out of anyone’s control at an astronomical pace. He said the government and the PTI should sit across the table from each other if they have any roadmap to ameliorate the economic conditions.
“We don’t need our chief justice, our establishment and our president to win elections. We need public support, and this is something the party is forgetting.”
The MPA from Narowal said blaming one’s predecessor is an ugly practice. He said every government which has been in the saddle for over three months should be held responsible for its own actions.
He said their government blaming the PTI may work on TV but it does not work in his constituency.
“People don’t buy it anymore. The PML-N will not be able to win close to 170 seats that it had won in 2018. However, all is not lost.”
He warned that if the trend continues, then the damage could take more than five years to repair. He said the party should not adopt a pro-establishment stance.
Another MPA from southern Punjab said the PTI’s politics is actually benefiting the PML-N and the PML-N’s politics is benefiting the PTI.
He said his party by obstructing elections is only making things more difficult for itself.
He said the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), despite being the PML-N’s coalition partner, is trying to use the situation to its advantage by blaming the financial mismanagement on the PML-N.
He said the PPP is creating an impression that they are a party in waiting. “The PML-N needs to tread carefully, as it is beset on all sides by foes.
He said since the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is not ready to release the $1.2 billion tranche, the financial woes are just going to get worse which will without a doubt impact the party's popularity.
“If the government has a plan to deal with this crisis then delaying will at least be good for the country, and if the said plan brings prices considerably down, the PML-N may even undo the damage the PTI has afflicted onto it, if otherwise, the PML-N should brace for a turbulent future.”
Former MPA Colonel (retd) Ayub Gadhi defended the party's decision to defer elections saying the people should decide if they need Pakistan or elections.
“Elections are not possible until the economic situation improves. Early elections will push Pakistan towards chaos. If the IMF deal is not working out then the government should look for other avenues to plug the gaps,” he added.