Deepening survival crisis

After its integration in 1971, Pakistan today faces another serious threat to its survival. In 1971, it was primarily a political crisis mismanaged by the then military regime of General Yahya Khan. But in 2023, Pakistan’s survival is stake because of a multi-dimensional crisis featuring political instability, economic failure and constitutional breakdown.

Will Pakistan be able to deal with the ongoing crisis of survival? Why are politicians, generals, judges, bureaucrats, businessmen, clergy and eminent personalities unable to cope with this crisis? How did the failures of elites and the indifference of masses augment the crisis that is threatening the very foundation of the country? These are the questions being raised today by those who are highly concerned about the dangerous situation on multiple fronts and the absence of a strategy to save the country from an impending disaster.

There are growing concerns about the outbreak of a civil war due to deep-rooted political polarisation as well as a tug of war between the parliament and the judiciary. The PTI chairman’s warning that the government’s failure to hold election to the Punjab assembly on May 14 would compel him to hit the streets in protest means all is not well.

The crux of Pakistan’s survival crisis lies in its crumbling economy. With just $5 billion worth of foreign exchange reserves, dwindling exports, declining remittances, inflation at around 45%, unimpressive per capita income and a sharp fall in the value of the rupee against major currencies should be enough to raise alarm bells for the 230 million people of this country. More than one million Pakistanis have migrated for better future in one year’s time. Frustration, anger and antagonism among the youth who form 60% of the population is feared to trigger violence, crimes and terrorism. Those aloof from these ground realities are the ones who live in their comfort zones and are least committed to this country.

It is not just a matter of our economic survival, politically too we are facing the worst of times because power hungry politicians are more interested in seeking power by all means rather than taking steps for pulling the country from the brink of a disaster. No government in Pakistan in the last several decades has successfully dealt with issues pertaining to energy, water, food, education, health, environment and other human security challenges. The discourse in parliament is not about addressing severe economic challenges but on how to demean the opposition. Adding to the crisis is the dangerous confrontation between the judiciary and the government. Never before in the history of Pakistan, a government has demanded the Chief Justice’s resignation and refused to implement Supreme Court orders. Also, the criticism of the security establishment over its alleged role in ‘regime change’ is unprecedented.

The prevailing confrontation between the state institutions is enough to raise questions about the country’s survival as a viable state. The situation needs to be analysed from three angles, as follows:

First of all it is the unprofessional handling of issues that threatens the very existence of Pakistan. Non-serious, imprudent and irresponsible management of issues by those who wield power means there is no honest and competent leadership capable of coping with multiple crises. For the first time in the history of Pakistan, there is a sharp erosion of ethics and values at the national level which is reflected in the deterioration of state institutions and indifference of those who matter. When the Prime Minister of a country is defiant against the Supreme Court Chief Justice and other judges and when the election commission is unable to comply with the orders of superior court in sheer violation of the constitution, the die is cast. When the parliament disobeys Supreme Court orders and elected representatives are not bothered about their unprincipled stance, the country’s survival is certainly at stake.

Second, it is not only the coalition government, parliament or election commission that are pursuing a policy of disobedience of the Supreme Court, but almost all political parties are bent on resisting elections in Punjab on May 14 because of the fear of their rout at the ballot. Parallels are being drawn between 1977 and 2023. Following 1977 general elections, a majority of the political parties took the position that ZA Bhutto, the then Prime Minister, must be removed from the scene. Bhutto’s popularity and his perceived vindictiveness led to a collusion between the opposition PNA and the military, leading to the imposition of the country’s longest martial law on July 5, 1977. Likewise, in 2023, a majority of political parties are fearful of the popularity of Imran Khan and his perceived vindictiveness. His removal from the scene is a common agenda of the member parties of the incumbent coalition government. To them, Pakistan’s survival is less important than eliminating Khan from the scene. Amid such a dangerous approach that has devastated the economy, destabilised state institutions and augmented polarisation at the societal level, is there any light at the end of tunnel? The situation seems more alarming than in 1971 and 1977.

Finally, Pakistan is blessed with world’s tallest mountains, best canal system, vast deserts, fertile land, mineral and natural resources, but it lacks a leadership that is honest, hardworking and intelligent. As a result, despite its potential and positives, the situation in the country has declined in in terms of work ethics, per capita income, performance of state-owned institutions like PIA, Steel Mills, Pakistan Railways, WAPDA and so forth. When decline is allowed to continue by those who matter, the outcome is degeneration. The threat to country’s survival is quite serious.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 2^nd, 2023.

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