How autarky can fuel conflict

From the Neolithic Revolution to post-industrial societies, energy consumption per capita is a fundamental prerequisite to understanding human evolution and progress. For energy consumption per capita, humans need to exchange potential energy sources from one state to another. The unprecedented change of the Enlightenment Era is due to improved energy exchange among humans. As we developed efficient mechanisms to export and import energy consumption patterns, we got conscious evolution. Humans are interdependent in energy goods exchange. Interdependence between humans in the face of natural calamities is essential for human survival. Autarky sometimes creates negative self-reliance, which ultimately leads humans towards conflict and state hubris. Making any state economically self-reliant provides the road to disconnect from the interconnected and interdependent economy that eventually leads to fascist threats because of closed economies that pursue national interests rather than global interests.

In the 21^st century, autarky threatens world peace. As American sanctions and tariffs have severe implications for the Russian and Chinese economies, it is assumed that the self-dependency of both states will reinforce the existing order of the world based on authoritarianism and conflict at the global level. Autarky has risen in response to globalisation to protect local industries and national economies. When governments become self-sufficient, they become weak to external shocks, such as natural catastrophes or economic downturns, which can activate political fluctuation and social turmoil. This can lead to disputes and wars.

There is a perception that nationalism in international systems will bring animosity and threats to the forefront. Nationalism and xenophobia can also result from autocracy. As a country becomes self-sufficient, it may put its own interests above those of other countries. Autarky can lead to confrontational rhetoric that contributes to war.

Autarky can cause cooperation problems. As nations become more self-reliant, they may not need to exchange information with other nations or rely on international organisations. This can make it more difficult to achieve consensus and resolve disputes peacefully. Moreover, autarky causes military build-up as nations strive to safeguard themselves from external dangers. To protect its borders and resources from fear, a nation may need to resource its military more as it becomes self-sufficient. This can create uncertainty between countries and lead to an arms race. In addition, autarky is attributable to economic protectionism, which deteriorates trade exchanges and global trade. A reduction in economic trade can cause strain and lack of consensus to solve coordination issues.

Autarchy causes paranoia and forces states to not invest in education, innovation, cultural exchanges and human capital. Such states focus on control, surveillance and authoritarianism. Consequently, certain countries cannot attract global talent, which eliminates positive competition on the international stage. States can be misled into a jingoistic struggle when they lose the ability to compete globally and innovate.

In addition, autarky can foster a sense of entitlement, as nations believe they have the freedom to regulate their own resources. This eventually leads to conflict and war. Humans developed complex interactions and exchanges between pre-industrial and industrial societies that accelerated innovation, advancement and peace. Global peace may be shattered if countries return to less interdependence. The American order must not exhaust states in order to develop open and fair trade and exchange opportunities for world countries. Otherwise, natural access blockage will contribute to conflict, confrontation and war.

Autarky is a complicated subject that needs thorough reflection on its advantages and dangers. While self-independence is crucial, it should not be sought at the expense of global alliances and stability. Countries should aspire to a proportional strategy for economic growth that fosters creation, variety, and international trade while also facilitating autonomy and sustainability.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 22^nd, 2023.

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