Eid amid distressed economy and conflictual politics

In a few days people in Pakistan, like the rest of Muslims worldwide, will be celebrating Eid-ul-Fitr, the most revered religious holiday for Muslims. As it comes after a month of fasting, Ramadan, the joy is even greater. But this year, there is not much to celebrate due to the deep political and economic crises that have engulfed the country. The economic downturn has been going on for several years, but the prevailing political unrest has accentuated the economic challenges with food, gas and oil prices rising steeply.

With demand for goods and services shrinking, thousands of industrial employees in all cadres are being laid off or are under threat that axe may fall on them.

The irony is that it was the economic crisis and mishandling of PTI government that provided Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif the leverage to build public opinion against Khan in 2022 that led to his ouster through a no-confidence motion in the parliament. PM Sharif accused Khan of gross economic mismanagement and mishandling of foreign policy as relations with the US hit rock bottom. Even China had reservations the way Khan was pursuing certain policies.

After one year in office, the PML-N led coalition with PPP as its junior partner has done no better. The state of the economy is in dire straits and the future looks bleak. Banks are under pressure as losses in investments and loans mount. Several business houses have been closed and foreign companies are pulling out. Industries have either shed their manpower to cut losses or closed the factories with its attendant consequences. Those with skills and qualifications are leaving the country. Mass unemployment coupled with the rising cost of living is a recipe for serious trouble. This is despite the fact that Pakistan in May 2022 was committed to IMF to pursue austerity by controlling rising inflation, stabilising foreign exchange reserves and reducing dependence on foreign imports of luxury and unnecessary items. There was also a plan to curtail tea imports to ease financial pressure; but as experience has shown, implementation of these measures is half-hearted at best while core inflation keeps galloping on a monthly basis burdening the poor with untold misery.

In this scenario, the PML-N government — realising that their chances of winning are very slim — is trying to delay elections on one pretext or the other. Their leadership is crossing constitutional boundaries and showing brazen defiance to Supreme Court orders that elections be held on time. Not realising that these desperate moves are shaking the foundations of the country that they or any other political party or institution would not be able to set right. To restore stability and place the country in the right direction strict adherence to the constitutional requirement of having elections on time is imperative. These must also be free and fair, lest they set a chain of protests and further worsen the overall situation.

Although Pakistan’s history is replete with serious financial and political crisis, its strategic leverage due to its geostrategic location and superpower rivalry provided it the clout to steer through. The global and regional scenario now is very different. The focus of major powers rivalry is in Europe, Afghanistan has lost its significance and, in any case, considered a country beyond redemption. Pakistan’s weak economy is no attraction for the US and the West. Their focus is on India and China. American leadership is aware that Pakistan’s nuclear assets are safe and secure. However, at the tactical level, they would like India and Pakistan to engage in a dialogue so that India could focus on China undistracted and Pakistan would not have to lean heavily on China. But PM Modi is adamant on maintaining the freeze using a false pretext that Pakistan promotes insurgency in Kashmir. Whereas, the reality is that the resistance to Indian occupation is genuine and Kashmiris remain undeterred despite the brutality and inhuman treatment being inflicted on them. Trying to isolate and maintain pressure serves BJP government’s policy of bleeding Pakistan economically and keeping political pressure. Meanwhile through unilateral legislation and coercion BJP government has altered the status of Kashmir and fully integrated it in the Indian union, in blatant defiance of UNSC resolutions and international law.

The situation in Afghanistan is also troubling. Apart from the harsh regime that the Taliban government has imposed on its hapless people its association with TTP and groups hostile to Pakistan is a matter of grave concern. It has implications for the security of CPEC projects and our border areas. While the security of these areas should be a top priority so should its economic development and well-being of the people. Neither this government or previous ones have given the due attention these deserve. Unless there is a comprehensive approach that includes economic uplift of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, mere kinetic measures will not suffice. Whereas the integration of the tribal belt into KP was a prudent measure but much more in terms of development of the area was necessary. To expect the present government to address these challenges would be unrealistic but only reinforces the need for early elections.

The confusion that arose due to differences of opinion among judges on issues of election apart from reflecting poorly on judiciary has serious consequences for the country’s stability and image. Hopefully, the Chief Justice’s verdict that elections should be held within three months would prevail.

The role of the military leadership would be critical in shaping future course of events. Their support for elections in accordance with the constitutional mandate and taking a neutral position regarding the outcome of the elections would place the country on a stable course. High hopes rest on the new Chief and his team, more so as the present government being an amalgam of political parties with weak national support relies on it.

Those who have witnessed Pakistan since its inception know how resilient it is and its ability to come out of crisis.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 19^th, 2023.

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