Pakistan’s predicament: three scenarios

‘Pakistan is at the crossroads’ is a cliché we used often to describe the state of affairs in this country. We have seen many tragedies. The Dhaka fall, wars with India, economic recessions, natural disasters and so on. But somehow we have managed to bounce back. Credit is given to the resilience of this nation. But the current mess we are in suggests that mere resilience may not bail us out this time. The present predicament is multifold. Perhaps, it is rare in our history that we have to deal with a plethora of challenges simultaneously.

The country is in the midst of political, constitutional, economic and security crises. As we prepare for Eid, there is enough evidence to suggest that the festivities this year are dampened by a record inflation. Unlike the past, this time one finds empty markets. The inflation has broken the back of this hapless nation and people have to sacrifice buying new clothes or shoes for ensuring meals every day. Their purchasing power has gone down drastically. Amid all this people at the helm are embroiled in power struggle. They have little or no regard for the miseries of the public. All sides have dug in to protect their interests while this nation of 220 million struggles every day. The worry is that there is no light at the end of the tunnel either. Meet any Pakistan nowadays the only question everyone asks: what will happen next?

There are three scenarios in the present situation.

First and an ideal one is that all stakeholders, including political parties and the establishment, sit across the table and find a way out of the current impasse. They should agree on a date for the general elections and decide the rules of the game to ensure that democracy in this country remains afloat. Free and fair elections are held to lead to smooth transition of power; and all sides must accept the results. But that seems far-fetched as the differences among the players are so deep that accepting such a deal is no less than a miracle.

Second scenario is that the Supreme Court manages to ensure elections in Punjab and K-P provinces despite strong opposition by the 13-party coalition government. The fact is that the establishment too is not keen that elections take place in the two provinces before the parliamentary polls due for later this year. Given the public opinion surveys, there is every likelihood that Imran Khan’s PTI would return to power in both Punjab and K-P provinces. Will this lead to any semblance of political stability? Certainly, not! The victory in Punjab and K-P would further embolden Khan who managed to galvanise people’s support despite being ousted from power a year ago. With a fresh mandate in Punjab, PTI would make life difficult for the government at the Centre. This would result in further chaos.

And now the third scenario. Parliamentary elections take place later this year with PTI already having governments in Punjab and K-P. Deep political divisions mean that general elections are unlikely to be violence-free. No matter what would be the outcome, the losing party is unlikely to accept the results. Elections usually lead to some sense of political stability since it allows the winning party to have a fresh mandate of the electorate. But in the current situation without any understanding between the stakeholders, elections in Pakistan are unlikely to bring any stability. In fact the situation would only go from bad to worse.

The IMF, World Bank and Asian Development Bank have presented a bleak economic outlook not just for the current fiscal year but for the next year too. No matter which party forms the government after the elections, their job would be cut out. The incoming government even with a two-thirds or a three-fourths majority would not be able to do much. The present crisis is of an epic proportion and perhaps ‘Pakistan is at the crossroads’ is no more a cliché as it depicts reality.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 17^th, 2023.

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