Afghan hand in TTP terror threat?
With the threat of economic meltdown growing worse day by day and a constitutional crisis that seems to have no end in sight, Pakistan is currently engulfed by a perfect storm of problems. Compounding the challenges the Pakistan Democratic Movement government is facing, a resurgent Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has carried out a string of deadly attacks since the collapse of last year’s peace overtures.
When Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired a meeting of the National Security Committee last week, observers expected the huddle would focus on the showdown between the government and Supreme Court that has dominated the country’s news cycles. Speculations were rife that the forum might endorse the government decision to reject the SC ruling on elections in Punjab.
To the surprise of observers, the statement issued by the PM office at the conclusion of the high-level meeting made no explicit mention of the current political tensions in the country. Instead, the NSC acknowledged the deterioration in the security situation and decided to launch “an all-out comprehensive operation with the entire nation and the government, which will rid the country of the menace of terrorism with renewed vigour and determination.”
“This comprehensive, all-round and comprehensive operation to eliminate the scourge of terrorism in all its forms from Pakistan will also include efforts at the political, diplomatic security, economic and social levels. A high-level committee has also been formed in this regard and will make recommendations regarding its implementation within two weeks,” the statement added.
In an in-camera briefing on the national security situation in the National Assembly Hall on Friday, army chief General Syed Asim Munir explained that the current campaign against terrorists was part of the already approved strategy of the state and that talking to the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was a mistake.
Post-Eid operations
Speaking to The Express Tribune by telephone about the implications of the NSC decision, a source on the ground said military operations would be conducted in targeted areas of North and South Waziristan after Eidul Fitr.
According to the source, a senior counter-terrorism officer, the decision to launch the operations comes after the Afghan Taliban was discovered to have been actively participating in attacks targeting Pakistan’s security establishment and law-enforcement.
“Our details show that in every ‘tashkil’ (movement), if ten TTP members were dispatched, five or four would be Afghan citizens,” the officer said. Sharing the details, the officer revealed that 51 Afghan militants were killed in targeted intelligence-based operations carried out by the military, police and the Counter-Terrorism Department over the last three months. “Even in the attack on the police station in Karachi, two of the terrorists involved were Afghan citizens,” he disclosed.
“We have informed and warned the Kabul Regime about the recent surge in the militancy across Pakistan and the participation of Afghan Taliban in these activities. We have demanded that they play their role in ensuring peace and stability in our country,” the source shared further, adding that there were reports of more movement by Afghan Taliban in this year’s spring season.
According to the officer, the areas where military operations are to be held in North Waziristan included Ghulam Khan, the border areas of Afghanistan, the stronghold of Hafiz Gul Bhadur, Datta Khel, Shawal, Shawa, Spin Wam. In South Waziristan, the areas of Azam Warsak, Zar Milan, Angoor Adda, the border with Afghanistan, Khan Kot, Sar Kand and Ladha are to be the focus of operations.
Areas that are believed to have a strong presence of Afghan Taliban include Shin Warsak and Zangara, the source said. He added that the locals have been informed and their displacement is expected. To support the post-Eid operations, security forces will establish more checkpoints, the officer shared.
Door shut for negotiations?
Sources said that Pakistan had lost a window for reconciliation with the Taliban following the killing of high-ranking Inter-Services Intelligence officer Brigadier Mustafa Kamal Barki on March 21.
According to the statement issued by Inter-Services Public Relations, Brig Barki encountered hardcore terrorists in the Angoor Adda locality of South Waziristan and sacrificed his life after he and his team ‘put up a valiant resistance’. Two members of Brig Barki’s team were critically injured, the military’s media wing added.
Talking about Brig Barki’s importance, sources privy to details said the ISI officer Pakistan’s window to the TTP and played a key role in bringing TTP leaders to the negotiation table in previous rounds of talks. According to them, he was the one who signed all previous agreements, particularly the Kabul agreement between the TTP and Islamabad.
According to one source, Brig Barki met the TTP leadership alone around eight times and was a man who enjoyed the trust of the group’s chief Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud. “Such was the extent of the trust between the two that Mufti Noor Wali joked that he trusted him more than his own brother,” the source said.
The source added that Brig Barki always travelled to Afghanistan on his own risk and had forced Mufti Noor Wali and other TTP Shura members to come to negotiations with assurances.
With Brig Barki’s cold-blooded murder and military operations being planned, sources said that any possibility of talks with the TTP was over for the time being.
TTP-Afghan Taliban cooperation
With the Taliban back in power in Afghanistan, the TTP has regained its footprint in Pakistan’s erstwhile tribal regions. Previous operations by Pakistani forces had forced TTP leaders into hiding in the neighbouring war-torn country. But during the subsequent withdrawal of the US and its allies from Afghanistan, the TTP forged even closer ties with the Afghan Taliban.
According to former Afghan security analyst Fawad Lamay, TTP has for years hosted various Jihadi groups like the Haqqani Network, East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), Uzbeks, Turkmen and Chechens. “With the Taliban back in power in Afghanistan, the TTP leadership now freely moves from one side to another, from border areas to main lands. It conducts meetings and more specifically has received intelligence from the Emirate-e-Islami (Afghan Taliban),” he said.
Lamay called TTP and the Afghan Taliban two sides of the same coin, adding that “it would be a lie to believe that the Emirate-e-Islami have broken off ties with other Jihadi groups.”
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior journalist from North Waziristan confirmed that if an attack took place in North or South Waziristan, four out of ten terrorists responsible would be traced back to Afghanistan. “Three of the last ten suicide attacks in North Waziristan were traced back to Afghanistan,” the journalist said. “It shows that the bonds [between TTP and Afghan Taliban] are still at place and TTP is enjoying backing from Kabul.”
Modern weapons and tactics
Following the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, both the Afghan Taliban and the TTP has found themselves flush with cutting edge equipment the Americans couldn’t take with them or destroy. The weaponry fighters from both groups are now equipped with includes state-of-the-art night vision and thermal sights, communications systems, long-range sniper rifles and grenade launchers. According to experts, some of the tools TTP fighters now possess are not available to Pakistani security forces.
In addition, TTP training videos now show an increased emphasis on precision in their hit-and-run attacks. Local sources in South Waziristan revealed that TTP fighters’ shots were so accurate that security personnel were not safe within their posts and have been ordered to vacate them after Asr time.
Cross-militant diplomacy
According to sources, the merger of Taliban groups has strengthened TTP hands across Pakistan. The TTP military commission, they said, has people with diplomatic experience who have attracted scores of militant, separatist and sectarian groups in Balochistan and Sindh.
In recent days, the Balochistan Liberation Army has softly inked an agreement with TTP, sources said, adding that it is only verbal at this stage as their ideology and areas of concern are different. A group of TTP from the Bannu Domail area and Abu Zar Fidae from the Peshawar adjacent Bara Tehsil of Khyber tribal district have also announced their alliance.
TTP reaction to NSC
In a statement in response to the decision taken at the NSC meeting, TTP spokesman Muhammad Khorasani denied that the current wave of terrorism Pakistan was the result of a ‘soft corner’ in negotiations with them.