Beware, heatwaves ahead!

In 2022, Pakistan witnessed harsh weather conditions from April to September due to heatwaves and irregular weather patterns. Heatwaves occur when a place’s temperature exceeds its limits. During high pressure, winds are trapped toward the ground and heat is reflected by the ground. In this process, heat cannot escape the area. The McKinsey Global Institute predicted that more than 50 million people could suffer from the coming heatwaves in Pakistan. Heatwaves impact all sectors of the economy, from agriculture to industry. They reduce the population’s productivity, increase the burden on the underprivileged, and jack up inflation.

According to World Bank reports, heatwaves decrease the productivity level of the employed population by 5-10%. This is a looming threat to the Pakistani population. Pakistan has a 74% employed population, of which 40–42% are directly involved in agriculture and exposed to outdoor working patterns. It is estimated that more than 40% of the working labour in Pakistan is employed under unorganised conditions, in addition to agriculture. Lethal heatwaves can adversely impact the working and underprivileged classes. The decrease in productivity levels of the working population can burden the economy more due to an underperforming index.

For instance, during heatwaves, wheat production decreases due to crop loss and crop damage. A labour-intensive job like wheat cutting becomes challenging in April and May. Heatwaves shrink labourers’ productivity, which leads to productivity losses in the wheat output. And this loss of productivity leads to inflation. Wheat is the main ingredient in the diet of the majority of Pakistanis. Low productivity and crop losses due to heatwaves cause an extra burden on the economy, contributing to high inflation.

The other deadly factor that is absent from our policy orientation is the increase in supply and demand for electricity due to heatwaves. The rise of heatwaves causes an increase in demand for electricity. This abrupt demand for electricity causes an energy crisis in the country. Moreover, production of electricity in Pakistan is largely based on coal consumption. To produce more electricity, we consume more coal, which multiplies greenhouse gas emissions, leading to global warming.

For people who cannot afford cooling machines or ACs, the coming heatwaves are a nightmare. The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) warns that the combined risks of extreme weather conditions in Pakistan can reduce GDP by 18-20% by 2050. This is a serious issue. Heatwaves should be considered the coming apocalypse for Pakistan in the coming years.

The Pakistan Cooling Action Plan has shaped some agendas in theory. In practice, it needs to be installed more maturely. Pakistan could, for example, work on a sustainable cold chain system in which the cooling industry would be able to serve two purposes. On the one hand, it can work to provide cooling through cold storage and transport; and on the other, it can create half a million new jobs in this upcoming cold chain system. Extending the discussion, it is necessary to reduce cooling demand across the sectors and reduce refrigerator demand in the coming years.

The government needs to invest in regenerative agriculture, ecosystem restoration and social protection systems for those who are at high risk of heatwaves. At the individual level, we should create rooftop gardens in urban areas. As urban areas are becoming urban heat islands, there is an urgent need to create such gardens. This is because greenery and gardening can help reduce the heat in megacities, which are exposed to harsh weather conditions.

Finally, adaptation and proactive policymaking can reduce the coming threats of inflation due to heatwaves, productivity paranoia and agricultural outcomes. Footpaths can be covered with roof and benches installed there. This will help the underprivileged class who can’t avoid being outside.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 8^th, 2023.

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