The final sin

Granted that Imran Khan and his PTI reached the pinnacle of political power in 2018 through significant facilitation, if not entirely. Former army chief General Bajwa acknowledges as much and much more. The army has since then ‘disavowed’ direct or indirect intervention and turned ‘apolitical’. How we reached that point in institutional recourse is interesting. Year 2016 was marked by yet another public falling of the military with the civil over the issue of Dawn Leaks which are now a part of the record of this disharmony of decades. Nawaz Sharif did not stop at sacking one army chief, Jahangir Karamat, in 1998, and tried repeating the act with Parvez Musharraf who struck back with his own version of ‘the empire strikes back’. When Nawaz returned to power in 2013, he leveled with the now-retired Musharraf by implicating him in a 1999 ‘treason’ case with a penalty of death, if proven. The two, civ and mil, fell out on Musharraf eventuating in Dawn Leaks, give or take the story on either side.

When investigating for crimes alleged in Panama Papers an omission in declaration under oath by the PM became his felling curse. (Justice Asif Khosa’s analogy with Sicilian Mafia and how its head, Al Capone, was nabbed because of a tax omission reflects the similarity). It is alleged that both, the courts and the military — which was highly influential in the power-stakes — let the axe fall on Sharif, conveniently seeing the end of someone who was inherently combative with other power centres. With the PML-N out of favour in repeated falling-out with the military chiefs in all their turns at power, and the PPP reduced to a regional party having lost its position and electoral strength in Punjab, military — in Kingmaker’s role — opted to support Imran Khan as someone who could usher stability and progress to a country increasingly left behind in regional and global comparisons.

Military has always been influential in the matters of the state but that is more a sign of personal proclivity of an army chief than a default recourse. At other times misgovernance in political hands or rampant corruption at the highest level, or simply personalised and egotistical falling out between individuals at apex positions in power, has meant that a dreaded breakdown of order pushed intervention if not a direct takeover by the military. That is the basis of how often military gets recounted as a regressive influence on the democratic culture in the country. Over time this has become the norm where most political parties seek direct or indirect affirmation of the military in their quest for political power. It was in this backdrop then that the military ostensibly went all out to support IK and help him succeed when he found power giving rise to what is popularly termed a hybrid regime.

That it was not to be became obvious in the very beginning. IK seemed out of sorts in selection of his team, was short on his homework to run a state as complex as Pakistan and did not have a clear vision of either policy or governance or its formulation. His first couple of years in power were utter disappointment. He turned stubborn in defiance which when added to his inherent arrogance made him an impossible cohort in a system of governance and politics which was based on cooperative existence and function. The economy crashed, politics became polarised, the administration stalled — the civil bureaucracy could not comprehend his haughtiness, the parliament stood paralysed and combative — he rarely attended a session, entire governance ground to halt. Rather than accept errors in conception he turned greatly more defiant, combative, isolated and suspicious.

Despite widespread support of the people and of all organs of the state incompetence in vision, policy formulation and administration of governance became insurmountable challenges. That is when he went to war with one and all who he found critical. The one positive that he deserves the credit for was how the country and the nation stumbled through the testing years of Covid and came out well in comparison with many. But it was based less on an assured vision than the lucky breaks which helped getting through with least pain. Even greater credit goes to the military portion of the combined set-up which through its organisational strength was able to guide and implement what gets counted as a success story. Economy wasn’t as a success story as is narrated and had clear determinants of why and how it became to be seen relatively better in the last two years. Importantly, it was unsustainable and crashed as soon as global determinants changed.

As IK’s last year in power approached and the economic indicators stood skewed beyond repair — how the economy has tanked in the last year was on the anvil — and both, his popularity and reelection were on the line he chose to do what failing politicians tend to when their ship is sinking: they travel abroad. He chose a populist than a realist route to foreign policy unleashing external influences that we as nation could do without — he later tried invoking it as a sympathy plank to his sinking prospects — and took on the army chief in a personal vendetta as the ultimate resort in Pakistani politics to enthuse support for machoistic idealism even when misplaced.

The army declared itself ‘apolitical’ and with some probable nudging in the background enabled the opposition to gather its marbles and collective guts to finally show the door to this ‘political outsider’ with a VONC. All legal and constitutional, mind you. But the power-stakes must bend one or the other way for it to change its balance. The balance tilted and the PDM was conceived and contrived in power. What has followed is too recent to enumerate.

PDM stands on a flimsy ground, is on the wrong side of the constitution in denying elections, has failed to provide political response to deepening political challenges and is patently incapable to either govern or resolve Pakistan’s bedeviling challenges. If IK was short of ideas, this one is as incompetent and riven with familial and tribal interest and agendas. The country is in throes of deep economic malaise because of this government’s inattention or mishandling or both. Some think it could well be a deliberate slide to pose a Hobson’s choice on powers that be. Take it or leave it. The fracas in the SC is yet another contrivance of the same strategy by the PDM.

The SC has ordered elections. This is the first step to resolving this multifaceted breakdown of order. This is what the constitution also ordains. To be on the wrong side of both for short-term gains and convenience is failing the state and its people. Let it not be said we were found siding the wrong. Let it not be ‘the sin’ which finally sank the ship down fully. God forbid.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 7^th, 2023.

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