When vacuum in strategic decision-making deepens

The ongoing month of March is highly likely to witness fundamental changes in Pakistan which is currently suffering from issues like economic meltdown, political polarisation as well as fragility of state institutions.

Contrary to the Supreme Court’s order – whereby elections to Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provincial assemblies are to be held within 90 days of the assembly dissolution or a closest date – the Election Commission of Pakistan has announced postponement of Punjab Assembly election, scheduled on April 30, to October 8. This threatens a head-on collision between the top court and the electoral watchdog – something that does not auger well for a country mired in host of crises.

It is the power-hungry elites who have brought the country to a pass where national security, sovereignty, economic wellbeing and political stability are all at stake. Confusion and incoherence persist on issues of national interests. Imprudence and short-sightedness tend to shape the perceptions of those who wield power, as they are only interested in clinging on to power as long as possible. In sheer disrespect to vote, they are denying the people of Punjab and K-P their legitimate right to elect their representatives.

None of the constituent parties of the PDM, which is thought to be backed by the powerful security establishment, is serious about complying with the Supreme Court order to hold election to the two provincial assemblies within the constitutional timeframe. Scared of the PTI popularity, the ruling coalition is using the excuse of the prevailing financial crisis to delay the vote, and maintain the status quo to serve their political interests.

An unmanageable economy and painfully poor governance tend to augment popular resentment against the incumbent government which has failed to deliver since it dislodged the PTI-led government through a vote of no-confidence in April last year.

With the executive, the election commission and the security establishment on one side and the opposition (PTI), judiciary and presidency on the other, one fears an institutional collision coming up in the days to come. The manner in which the incumbents are trying to deny the people their right to vote in Punjab and K-P points towards fragility and vacuum of strategic decision-making, which threatens further escalation of the prevailing crises.

When the federal government and the election commission care a damn about complying with the Supreme Court order to hold elections, in blatant violation of the Constitution, the outcome is not difficult to gauge.

In Pakistan’s political history, the month of March is full of unfortunate events like the imposition of the second Martial Law on March 25, 1969; the launch of the military operation in the then East Pakistan on March 25, 1971; and the beginning of the PNA movement in March 1977 against the Zulfikar Ali Bhutto government over allegations of rigging in elections. Likewise, March of 2023 is witness to a dangerous tug of war between PDM and PTI which threatens anarchy in the country. Partisan, divided and polarized, state institutions are contributing to the prevailing political and constitutional crisis.

The strategic vacuum in the decision-making process can have three major implications.

One, polarisation and division may trigger institutional collapse. Like never before, the federal government is hell bent upon delaying elections in Punjab and K-P on one pretext or the other, and has even used the so-called joint sitting of parliament to postpone the vote. The election commission obliged the PDM by deferring the elections in a clear violation of the Constitution and the Supreme Court order. An open confrontation between powerful state institutions is sure to destabilise the country at all levels. Not only the defence ministry, but the ministries of finance and interior have also refused to provide the needed support for holding the elections, which is tantamount to disobeying the Supreme Court order and violating the Constitution. The warnings from the PTI, the Supreme Court Bar Association and all others who are sensing a dangerous scenario must be taken seriously. The PDM clearly seems bogged down by ‘Imran phobia’ and taking decisions accordingly – the consequences of which are not difficult to comprehend.

Two, the country’s most powerful and organised institution with deep-rooted involvement in the governance affairs cannot remain oblivious to the prevailing political tussle. Already, internal and external forces are targeting that institution, and those in command of it are required to make decisive moves to avert a disaster. Rather than putting its image at stake, the institution should avoid taking sides in the ongoing power game. Gone are the days of takeovers in Pakistan – more so because of the serious security challenges in Balochistan and former FATA.

And third, lack of strategic foresight on the part of the PML-N and the PPP, the two oldest parties of the country, to deal with the grave economic and political crises is a sad reminder of their failure to learn from history. How Pakistan got disintegrated in 1971 and how political violence in the wake of the 1977 general election led to the imposition of the country’s longest martial law must be taken seriously, as continued lust for power will result in worsening of the many prevailing crises and an irreparable loss to the country’s national interests, security, sovereignty and governance.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 28^th, 2023.

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