Is Middle East moving towards stability?

The recent announcement that Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to restore diplomatic relations after a lapse of seven years and agreed to reactivate a 2001 security cooperation accord and an earlier pact on trade, economy and environment augurs well for the stability of the Middle East. If implemented faithfully it could be a turning point in the relations of the two most important Muslim countries with positive implications for the region. The credit for this diplomatic breakthrough goes primarily to the sagacious Chinese leader President Xi Jinping and his foreign minister who has been working behind the scenes with great subtlety in bringing the two countries to cooperate for the common good of their people.

It is a great victory for Chinese diplomacy and a reflection of the statesmanship and positive outlook as it knew that the entire dynamic of the Middle East could change with this development provided the agreement is implemented faithfully. More significantly, the ability of outside powers especially the US to manipulate events and promote discord among these countries for their warped objectives would be greatly reduced. It is amazing how America that has been the most influential and dominating player in the Middle East finds itself on the sidelines. Israel obviously, being an arch enemy of Iran and the major source of discord for its illegal occupation of Palestine, is greatly disturbed. Its efforts to get closer to Saudi Arabia to drive a wedge between Saudi Arabia and Iran thankfully have not worked and it finds itself at a loss. This accord has come at a time when Israeli atrocities on the Palestinians are at its peak. It is to be seen how it reacts to it overtly and covertly.

The détente between these two countries will bring relief to smaller Muslim nations in the region as they have been used by these two powers in pursuit of their ideological success and power play. In the process some of these countries have sharply divided communities on sectarian fault lines. There is the other school of thought that feels that these two major powers would be “dividing up the region amongst themselves at the expense of the interest of smaller countries”. This view is essentially a reflection of frustration of those who were banking on differences and enmity among Ummah. What is good news that regional states Iraq and Yemen that enjoy good relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia played a very useful role in facilitating the agreement.

A major benefit of the reproachment would be that it would overtime reduce their heavy dependence on super and major powers for their security. And above all allow them greater freedom to shape the destiny of their nations in the interest of its people rather that as vehicles or instruments of manipulation by major powers. They should be able to exercise greater leverage, commensurate with their national power while dealing with external powers and should be in a better position to focus more on the genuine welfare of their people and the fundamental interests of the country.

Another positive outcome of the agreement, provided it is implemented in letter and spirit, could be that the minorities, Shia and Sunni, can expect a fairer treatment and their loyalties will not be subjected to doubt. From a Pakistani perspective or for that matter in countries where there is presence of Muslims of both denominations inter-sect harmony should improve.

Hopefully, the trade and commercial activity between Saudi Arabia and Iran would increase, once the UN sanctions are lifted. Nonetheless, there are several items that fall outside the ambit of sanctions that could be traded. Being the major producers of oil, they have a great advantage of influencing the global energy market.

The deal would be a blessing for Iran as it comes at a time when it is undergoing the harshest sanctions that have brought enormous misery and poverty to its people. Although Saudi Arabia and other nations have to engage with Iran within the parameters of its sanctioned regime, still there is considerable scope for cooperation as the recent Saudi-Iranian agreement indicates.

It should be a matter of concern for leaders of Saudi Arabia, Iran and other Muslim countries that they are lagging way behind in science and technology and education in general and are heavily dependent on major powers in several critical fields of national activity. History reminds us that in 16^th and 17^th century, Muslim countries had progressed to a level that they were considered to be leading in certain arts and sciences. To rise from the present decline would need a herculean effort spread over years that we do not foresee or expect at least in the near future. Qualitative change can come about if leaders are visionary and dedicated; as progress is not the monopoly of any race, religion or country. If the focus of Muslim countries is correct and they are able to provide quality education and a fair political environment, the potential is there to alter the strategic dynamic of their region.

America has welcomed the development but underlying misgivings about Iran persist. There are concerns that lately Saudi Arabia is asserting itself, broadening its contacts and seeking closer relations with China and Russia, while maintaining its historical ties with US.

It would be interesting to compare China’s efforts at playing a major role in Middle East to what the US has been playing and continues to do so in South America, West Asia and several countries of Africa. Apparently, China’s self-interest in promoting the Saudi-Iranian deal apart from enhancing its international stature as a major regional and global player will serve its economic interests as prices of oil in the international market would come down and in due course stabilise. This would enable it to maintain its competitive edge in a free global market. Whatever the motives as long as these converge with the interests of Iran, Saudi Arabia and the region is what matters.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 15^th, 2023.

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