Project strategic defeat of Russia?

In his State of the Nation address before Russian parliament on February 21, President Vladimir Putin said: “The responsibility is on the West and the Ukrainian elite and government, which does not serve the national interest, but rather serves the interest of third countries which use Ukraine as a military base to fight Russia. The more they send weapons to Ukraine, the more we will have the responsibility of the security situation at the Russian border. This is a natural response.”

Putin’s fresh offensive against the West which he unleashed in his State of the Nation address doesn’t end in blaming the West and sustaining his country’s war against Ukraine till victory is achieved, but he announced suspension of Strategic Arms Reduction Talk (START) treaty with the US which was signed in 2010 and is due to expire in 2026. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken termed Putin’s act “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible”. Likewise, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made clear that “over the years, Russia has violated and walked away from key arms control agreements. With today’s decision on New START the whole arms control architecture has been dismantled.”

Fresh offensive launched by Putin against the US and NATO is not meaningless. Policy of strategic encirclement of Russia by NATO got an impetus when Ukraine expressed its readiness to join the Atlantic alliance.

US President Joseph Biden during his address in Warsaw on February 21 asserted: “Ukraine stands strong a year after the Russian invasion and that Moscow would never defeat its neighbor. A dictator bent on rebuilding an empire will never be able to ease the people’s love for liberty… brutality will never grind down the will of the free. Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia — never.” Biden’s address was delivered a day after he undertook a surprise visit to Kyiv and along with the Ukrainian President assured unabated help to counter the fresh Russian offensive.

After the addresses by Putin and Biden it is clear that the two sides are moving towards a head-on collision which would have serious ramifications as far as global stability and order is concerned. A year after the Russian attack over Ukraine, it seems Moscow is determined to resist Western pressure in the form of colossal economic and military assistance to Kyiv and imposition of sanctions. It is not only NATO which has been a source of major assistance to Ukraine to counter Russian invasion, Japan also announced $5.5 billion for Ukraine in the form of economic, humanitarian and medical assistance. Isolating Russia from mainstream world is now Western strategy under project “strategic defeat of Russia” which will further compound existing polarisation at the international level.

In his State of the Nation address, Putin released his anger against the West when he asserted: “We were open and sincerely ready for a constructive dialogue with the West; we said and insisted that both Europe and the whole world needed an indivisible security system equal for all countries, and for many years we suggested that our partners discuss this idea together and work on its implementation. But in response, we received either an indistinct or hypocritical reaction, as far as words were concerned. But there were also actions: NATO’s expansion to our borders, the creation of new deployment areas for missile defense in Europe and Asia — they decided to take cover from us under an ‘umbrella’ — deployment of military contingents, and not just near Russia’s borders.”

The die is cast and battle lines have been drawn between Russia and the US-led Western world. What will be the response of other global actors like China, India, Iran, South Africa and Brazil because their positions will matter in devising the future shape of things as far as the war in Ukraine is concerned.

Putin’s well-crafted State of the Nation address and Biden’s subsequent speech in Warsaw will have three major implications.

First, strategic umbrella which NATO is trying to provide to Ukraine will further provoke Russia and compel Putin to take further actions similar to suspending START treaty. A new nuclear arms race between NATO and Russia will further destabilise the already fragile world order. If Russia embarks on deploying a new category of strategic nuclear missiles targeting US allies in Europe and Asia, the outcome will be similar to nuclear arms race between the then USSR and the US during 1960s and 1970s. Agreements on reducing nuclear and conventional forces since Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) agreement of 1972 and 1979 along with Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement of 1986 will be reversed.

Second, Biden’s warning to China during the Munich Security Conference held the other day that it should not support Russia over Ukraine will have no impact on Beijing because of the deep-rooted strategic alliance between Russia and China. Furthermore, a summit meeting is due between the Russian and the Chinese Presidents soon which will overview NATO’s escalation of threats to Moscow over Kyiv. Realistically speaking, despite fault lines of Putin and his failure to neutralise Ukraine in the yearlong war, it will be quite difficult for NATO to capitulate Moscow because despite sanctions imposed by the West, Russia is resilient to withstand growing Western pressures. By accusing the West of escalating war in Ukraine, the Russian President in his State of the Nation address argued that the Munich Security Conference launched endless accusations against Moscow regardless of the fact that more than 900,000 people were killed and 38 million became refugees because of the American military interventions since 9/11. Terming the present Ukrainian government similar to Neo-Nazis, Putin accused the West of launching project ‘strategic defeat’ of Russia so as to impose anti-Moscow regimes bordering Russia.

Finally, Russia’s counter offensive vis-à-vis the US-led NATO assertion cannot succeed unless Moscow relinquishes its claim over Ukraine and withdraws its forces that country. Unfortunately, the peace plan of both Ukraine and Russia to end the war is a non-starter because both sides want to stick to their positions. Ukraine wants total withdrawal of Russian forces and payment of compensation whereas Moscow wants a guarantee from Kyiv not to join NATO and not be a part of encircling Russia. The UN is also active for peace in Ukraine.

Nonetheless, Putin’s offensive posture is not only limited to the battleground but it goes beyond in the realm of nuclear arms control.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 28^th, 2023.

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