Kingmakers and politics

Our politicians have exercised their reckless genius to maximise political benefits for themselves and their parties

On the third of January, the US House of Representatives witnessed a rare scene. The election for Speaker of the House, usually a straightforward process, failed to yield a result on the first ballot, making it the first time in a century such an incident had occurred. Eventually, over four agonising days and a total of fifteen ballots, the House finally managed to get Kevin McCarthy elected as Speaker with the thinnest of margins — but only after an array of concessions were made to a far-right Republican bloc of 15-20 members that had initially opposed McCarthy’s candidature.

This was a high-profile example of a specific case that usually parliamentary systems are susceptible to: a minority bloc extracting overdue concessions from the majority by leveraging electoral mathematics that affords them the position of a kingmaker.

Here in Pakistan too, our politicians have exercised their reckless genius in no short order to use this playbook to maximise the political benefits for themselves and their parties.

Take the case of the PML-Q. In 2018, with just 10 MPAs and 5 MNAs, the Chaudhrys managed to obtain the Punjab Assembly Speakership, multiple provincial and federal ministries, prioritised development funds and even a Senate seat as the cherry on top. So much for the Q-league being a district-level party.

On other occasions, circumstances have allowed the kingmaker to become the king himself. In July last year, Pervaiz Elahi (whose party had won about one per cent of the popular vote in Punjab), grabbed the Chief Minister’s slot of Pakistan’s most powerful province.

Manzoor Wattoo did much of the same in 1993, where he was instrumental in overthrowing the PML-N’s Punjab government by luring independents to his PML-J and forming a coalition with the PPP to hold the CM slot for two years.

In all these cases, why did the minority party wield a disproportionate amount of power over the majority? Simply because of the way our political system works: government patronage and offices of the state are too juicy of a proposition to pass up on. Plus, parties face a serious disadvantage when the state machinery is used against them. Thus, the PPP and the PTI were content with being in unwieldy coalitions, as long as it meant that they weren’t relegated to the opposition. That’s why parties are willing to be held to the sword by minor players: it just seems like the lesser of two evils.

Not that it matters to the politicians, but the fact is that the role of the kingmaker inherently goes against the crux of democratic values, as it impedes the will of the majority. And once you allow yourself to be held hostage by a small, overly-ambitious bloc, what’s going to stop all your party members and coalition partners from demanding bigger pieces of flesh the next time around?

In the case of the US Speaker election, Kevin McCarthy’s capitulation to the extremist bloc — by way of lucrative committee assignments and major changes to the House’s Rules of Business — only served to strengthen the positions of the rebels. He’ll have the Sword of Damocles hanging over his head throughout his Speakership.

Now here arises a pertinent question: what significance does the kingmaker role hold for Pakistan? After all, Pervaiz Elahi and Manzoor Wattoo were simply seasoned politicians who made the best of a rare opportunity to seize power and boost their political and financial bases through the vast powers of the CMship. And what’s the harm in parties grabbing an extra ministry or two for themselves?

The answer is that in Pakistan, it’s not so much about the pieces on the chessboard than about the ones moving those pieces around.

When no single party obtains a majority in the assembly, small players get the opportunity to become powerbrokers, and this kingmaker role offers vast space for political machinations to be orchestrated by certain string-pullers. That’s why a hung parliament is the best outcome for the powers-that-be.

While it would be ideal for behind-the-scenes players to have all the politicians subject to their whims, it’s just too messy of a task to pull off. Therefore, why not let the politicians do the grunt work of assembling most of the puzzle, while holding the last piece yourself?

Let’s look at how this strategy may play out in the upcoming Punjab provincial elections. The PTI is arguably in the most powerful position electorally and appears poised to win a majority. Its primary rival in the province, the PML-N, does not seem likely to put up a significant challenge, as the PML-N’s decision to join hands with its former arch-rival (the PPP) and head a shaky coalition at the federal level, along with its inability to tackle inflation or provide effective governance has seen a massive disintegration of its electoral base. However, some have claimed that the federal government and a partisan caretaker CM, possibly with support from powerful quarters, will attempt to interfere in the elections in order to deny the PTI the Punjab throne.

How might such a scenario play out? It is unlikely that the elections will be manipulated to an extent where the PML-N wins an outright majority, as such blatant interference could invoke a significant public response. Instead, behind-the-scenes players only need to prevent the PTI from gaining a majority in the assembly, possibly through pre-poll political engineering and the rigging of a few crucial seats. A situation could thus be fashioned where the smaller parties, along with independents, again emerge as the power-brokers in the province. These kingmakers — the metaphorical last piece of the puzzle — will allow space for the favourable party to be nudged into power.

Is there a way to shift the balance of power back to the parties having a public mandate? Sure: if our politicians sat down and reached a consensus to not let rogue elements exert unreasonable amounts of power over themselves, then the role of the kingmaker could be negated. Ultimately, there won’t be a head to place the crown on if both sides refuse to play ball.

Good luck with that though. We’re in Pakistan after all.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 24^th, 2023.

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