10-year plan for power production approved

The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has approved the 10-year Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2022-31 (IGCEP-2022), which envisages the phasing out of furnace oil by the year 2031.

National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) had developed and submitted the IGCEP-2022 in line with the relevant provisions of Grid Code 2005. It is a dynamic document covering 10-year planning and will be revised annually.

It will act as a primary document to add new capacity to electricity generation to meet future demand in a scientific and systematic manner, thus avoiding the boom and bust cycles recurring in the country.

IGCEP-2022 builds on the plans laid down by the preceding iteration and proposes a gradual shift from an energy mix heavily dominated by imported fossil fuels like coal, furnace oil and re-gasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) towards the one dominated by indigenous sources of energy including hydel, Thar coal, wind and solar.

Furnace oil is expected to be phased out by 2031. Similarly, the share of electricity generation from RLNG and imported coal will drop to 2% and 8% respectively by 2031.

The contribution of hydel, wind and solar photovoltaic (PV), which currently stands at 28%, 4% and 1% respectively, will be increased to 39%, 10% and 10%, thereby increasing the total share of green electricity to around 59%.

IGCEP-2022 also provides details of six additional scenarios, simulated to cater for any unforeseen events in the future, including dealing with varying electricity demand as well as four sensitivity scenarios dealing with early commissioning of Diamer-Bhasha Hydropower Project in 2029, commissioning of Chashma Nuclear (C-5) in 2029, inclusion of local coal power projects in 2027 and 2030 and unconstrained addition of projects based on renewable energy.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 4^th, 2023.

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