LB mathematics

Karachiites will have to do a lot of tweaking as they deal with a hung verdict at the local government tiers. The delay in compiling of results, marred by allegations of administrative meddling, has left behind a sour taste as the PPP and the Jamaat-e-Islami stand almost neck-to-neck with a split and indecisive mandate. The PPP with 93 votes — as it rules the roost with the Sindh government muscles at its beck and call — will try all it can to muster the logical support of its allies, PML-N and JUI-F, as well as Independents and Afaq’s MQM, which has a lone but masculine vote. But it will still fall short of simple majority in a total tally of 235 to grab the prestigious mayor slot.

This is where the high politics is pitched, as the not so-estranged but ideologically poles apart JI and the PTI are likely to cobble an alliance with the vengeful resolve to rule and develop Karachi by keeping the MQM-P and PPP at bay. JI with 86 and PTI with 40 UCs under their belts are well-poised to carry on the marriage of convenience with a pledge to deliver what the largest metropolitan had been longing for decades. Not so difficult is the arithmetic of Hyderabad, Badin and other districts of Interior Sindh that have simply gone the PPP way.

This second phase of local bodies’ polls in Sindh will long be remembered for grave errors of judgement. MQM-P stands out with its lacunae of sleeping all the way as delimitations were carried out by ECP. Its rising to the occasion was purely political in essence with an apt calculation to float the sympathy vote. Has it worked is not hard to guess. So is the pathetic matrix for the PTI, which loved and believed in rhetoric rather than organising itself at the grassroots level. PTI’s popularity at the national level proved to be a different ballgame, as Karachiites tongue-in-cheek questioned the veracity of Rs1.1 trillion Karachi Transformation Package which didn’t see the light of the day. The vote for JI is all because of its relentless campaign to stand out and be counted. It is seized with a rare opportunity to deliver.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 18^th, 2023.

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