Russia and the risk aversion curtain

To understand the dynamics of the Ukraine war, it is essential to understand the world view that is resulting in Kremlin-Washington strategic divide. The traditional American narrative is about the global divide between democracy and authoritarianism. Whatever is democratic it supports and encourages and whatever contributes to authoritarianism it denounces and opposes. President Vladimir Putin thinks differently: he considers that this American division of the world is no longer relevant in this post-modern world. For him the real dividing line is between order and chaos. He considers that America has acted blatantly as an outside power to try and plant democracies in far-flung countries that were either not prepared or not ripe for such a transition. Colluding and siding with installed pro-American regimes all America has done in its unipolar moment is to lead such countries towards an uncontrolled and chaotic drive towards democracy resulting in the destruction of their state system and creation of disorder and chaos. This happened during the Arab Spring that engulfed most Middle Eastern countries and this is exactly what is now happening in Ukraine.

Neither utilising soft power to promote democracy around the world nor furthering American geopolitical influence is what bothers Russia or other regional powers. What bothers them is the American democracy promotion through regime change by force. The postmodern world is witnessing the rise of various centres of economic and military powers in various regions contributing with great speed to the regionalisation of world’s politics and raising a new curtain in world politics. During the Cold War the iron curtain divided Europe into two separate areas but the regional powers and their institutions are raising this new ‘risk aversion curtain’ to prevent the arbitrary and unreliable interference by the outside power like the US in their regional affairs.

This risk aversion curtain is being raised with the participation of many countries that now consider the US as no more trustworthy and reliable, rather a geopolitical predator that seeks to influence and turn upside down, with all the shortcomings, the political system that runs their states. Classic example of this is the pushback in the US-Saudi relationship, with Saudi Arabia making a bid to join BRICS. All the powers that are uniting to raise this risk aversion curtain are the supporters and promoters of the concept of multilateralism and are against the US dominance of the world through its grand strategy of hegemonic liberalism.

The risk aversion curtain cannot be raised without ditching the petrodollar as the world trading currency. Unless the dominance, control and hold of American dollar on the world economy is not sidelined, there cannot be a strong multipolar world and it is with this conviction that the powers like Russia, China, India, Brazil, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and many other countries are joining hands to raise together this risk aversion curtain. This risk — exposure to danger — comes from the over-extended power of the US that increasingly questions the quality of personal freedoms and rights in these countries; and on the one hand promises and guarantees them political, economic and military support and security, but on the other hand funds and promotes social protests, creates pre-revolutionary conditions which have already resulted in the destruction of countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Libya. Yet America has no plans of their restoration as a normal country. It prefers to hold no economic or post-war reconstruction dialogues but is more than willing to throw in more money and supply arms and equipment to escalate yet another war thousands of miles away from its shores in Ukraine.

Preventing Americans both from offshore and onshore balancing will be a great challenge for the multipolar world. The implementation of such a strategy will not be possible without the active participation of the European and the rich Gulf countries. The world has risked and seen many unnecessary wars and is pretty much on the brink of witnessing a third world war. Raising the risk aversion curtain will push back Americans to what they have been practising best before joining both the world wars — isolationism. The major driver of raising this curtain is to support order in whatever form in a given country instead of creating chaos in the pursuit of democracy. Americans have made huge blunders not only in trying to become the Arab hegemon but the hegemon of the entire world.

Despite the sanctions, all other powers of the world will have to show greater resolution and resilience to rise at the global stage to raise this curtain against the American colonial, imperialist and interventionist policies. In a multipolar world the real order will come by fostering international cooperation in rebuilding Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and Palestine. Ninety percent of Muslim population lives around the Indian Ocean; and with 21st Century being declared as the Asian Century, the pivot Asia American policy brings it further closer to the Muslim-dominated world. American democracy promotion in the Middle East during the Arab Spring created spillover effects that reached as far as post-Soviet Central Asia, Caucasus and other Asian countries. America has a history of supporting anti-government and anti-regime forces and the 21st Century can no longer afford this careless and violence promoting American policies.

The risk aversion curtain raiser countries are the future investors in the concept of regionalisation. They will have to invest in rebuilding the regional institutions to attain more power and further the regional economic and military securities. The American grand strategy of the global hegemony of liberalism can only be combated by raising the risk aversion curtain of strong and powerful regionalism with the regional powers no more blackmailed from exercising control over their spheres of influence in the regions.

America after what it has done in Belgrade (1999), Afghanistan (2001-2018), Iraq (2003), Libya (2015-2019), Syria (2014-2018) and many other countries has lost its moral standing to lead the world. It is seen today as a power that contributed more to the destruction rather than the construction of the world. A multipolar world in order is much better than a unipolar democratic world in disorder and chaos.