Who could be the next army chief?

ISLAMABAD:

Pakistan will have a new army chief by the end of this month, bringing an end to the six-year tumultuous tenure of incumbent General Qamar Javed Bajwa. In any other country the appointment of an army chief is a routine affair. No public debate, no extensive closed door discussions and no media hype. But this is Pakistan where perhaps the appointment of army chief is as important as general elections.

This much interest is not without reasons. The army has ruled this country directly for not less than 33 years and is believed to have pulled strings when it was not in power. It was, perhaps, because of this reason that since 1997 only one army chief went home completing his three-year term. Rest stayed on beyond their terms either by a military coup or securing extensions in their services.

General Raheel Sharif was the only exception in recent history who hung his uniform after completing his three-year term, though many believe that he also wanted an extension but was not granted one by then prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

The outgoing Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa too was supposed to bid farewell to the army in November 2019 but he was also given an extension or he secured one. In fact the matter ended up at the Supreme Court, which in reality made the future army chief’s job easier if he intends to stay on. Under Supreme Court instructions, the Parliament had to amend the Constitution to legalise the extension in the services of the army chief.

But at the fag end of his career, General Bajwa has tried to confine the establishment within the constitutional role. When the Director General Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Lt General Anjum Nadeem made an extraordinary appearance before the cameras, one of the main objectives of his press conference was to convince the military’s detractors that the establishment would no longer want to interfere in political matters. The decision, the spy chief stressed, was not taken by an individual but by the institution after extensive in-house deliberations. The policy of the establishment to remain apolitical would continue under the new army leadership, he assured.

Against this backdrop, the appointment of a new army chief has become more significant. All eyes are on the Prime Minister and who he will pick for the coveted slot, which has both domestic and international ramifications.

The process of the appointment of a new army chief is well laid down in the Constitution of Pakistan. The ministry of defence will move a summary containing the names of senior generals eligible for the top slot, to the Prime Minister Office. It is a practice that a list of the five senior most generals is sent to the Prime Minister, who will then promote two of them to the rank of four-star and appoint them as Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee and the Chief of Army Staff. Remember, the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff committee slot will also become vacant a day before the army chief’s retirement. The CJCSC is a ceremonial post and hence there is little interest. The entire focus is on who will get the army chief slot. Barring any exception, one can assume the new army chief will be from the top five generals in the seniority list.

The top contenders

Lt General Asim Munir, the Quartermaster General at the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, is at the top of the list in terms of seniority. His case is interesting given the fact that all other generals who were promoted to three-start in September 2018, have retired. His retirement date is November 27, just two days before the change of command.

The reason he has not yet retired is because his promotion badges were installed two months after he was elevated as a three-star general. It is the installation of badges that determine the retirement date. If he becomes the army chief that would certainly be seen as ‘qudrat ka nizam’ (law of nature), the phrase recently used to refer to the Pakistan cricket team’s miraculous entry into the T20 world cup’s knockout stages.

General Asim has diversified experience in the army. He has served as Corps Commander Gujranwala. He was also the DG ISI from October 2018 to June 2019. His short stint as head of the premier intelligence agency raised many eyebrows. It was said at the time that then prime minister Imran Khan was not happy with him since he was believed to have brought the alleged corruption of his wife to his notice. Imran was also thought to have been irked by Gen Asim’s resolve to go by the book. Gen Asim also served as DG Military Intelligence. He is considered as a frontrunner as the government has indicated that the principle of seniority would take precedence this time in the appointment of a new chief.

Lt General Sahir Shamshad Mirza is the second in the seniority list. He is Corps Commander Rawalpindi. He also served as Chief of General Staff (CGS), a key position most army chiefs held in the past. CGS is known as the de facto army chief since he heads both the operational and intelligence directorates in the army. In simple words, every file in the army goes through his table. Previously he served as Director General Military Operations.

General Sahir has an interesting personal background. He lost his parents at an early age. He rose to this position with sheer hard work and struggle. It is said that he mentioned his unit in the parents’ column. Those who know General Sahir closely say he enjoys a good reputation in the army. He is not involved in any controversy and there is not much debate about his candidature. Observers believe if he is not given the slot of army chief, he may become the next CJCSC.

Lt General Azhar Abbas is third in the senior list. He is currently the CGS, considered a crucial position within the army hierarchy. He also served as Corps Commander Rawalpindi. As CGS he has worked closely with the outgoing army chief. He is known for being an expert on India. In terms of experience, he ticks all the boxes to become the next army chief.

Lt General Numan Mahmood is the fourth in the seniority list. He is currently the President of the National Defence University. He was serving as Corps Commander Peshawar before being replaced by Lt General Faiz Hameed in November 2021.

General Numan is the least discussed candidate for the army chief slot. Perhaps few give him the chance to reach the top. However, both General Raheel Sharif in 2013 and General Qamar Javed Bajwa in 2016 were also written off but they eventually went on to become army chiefs.

The fifth in the seniority list is the most talked about three-star General. Lt General Faiz Hameed is currently posted as Corps Commander Bahawalpur. Previously he served as Corps Commander Peshawar. He had a long stint at the ISI — first as DG Counter-Intelligence and then as DG ISI. He was considered close confidant of General Bajwa and that was why he was given all the key postings.

He rose to the prominence first as DG-C in ISI when his name surfaced on an agreement the government had signed with Tehreek-e-Labaik to end the three-week long sit-in in Islamabad. He was in the spotlight once again when a judge of the high court accused him of pressuring the judiciary not to give any relief to ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif before the July 2018 elections.

He was at the centre of another controversy when then prime minister Imran Khan wanted him to continue as DG ISI. The army chief eventually prevailed but the standoff with the PTI government tore apart the same page forever. There were rumours that Imran wanted to appoint General Faiz as the new army chief, though the deposed prime minister has always denied such claims. Given so much controversy surrounding his candidature, chances of General Faiz getting the prized army chief slot are slim.

Dark horse in the race?

Lt General Muhammad Amir, the current corps commander Gujranwala, is also in contention for the army chief. He has served as military secretary to former president Asif Ali Zardari. Some speculate that the Pakistan Peoples Party wants Gen Amir to be considered for the army chief slot.

In 2013, General Raheel was at number three in the seniority list, and in 2016 General Bajwa was at number four. With this sequence, the lucky number seems to be five.. But this is the post of army chief and not a lucky draw. Therefore, you need more than luck to become the army chief in Pakistan.