![political dance of death political dance of death](https://i1.tribune.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/238525-EjazHaiderNew-1314193749.jpg)
Rwanda? No. It’s Karachi, the financial hub and largest city of Pakistan.
Now, everyone wants the army to come and restore order. The hated, incompetent, responsible-for-all-the-troubles-of-Pakistan army, we are told, is the solution, the only organised force that can succeed where the politicians, the civil administration, the political parties, and the interior ministry have failed.
Will it, if the army were to be deployed to Karachi? Depends on how one defines success. If it means a visible drop in violence, it might work for some time. But if success means resolving the issues that have led to violence, the army has no means of ensuring that. The violence is political and is a contest between the defender of the status quo and the challengers. The army is not a party to this conflict. Nor should it become one.
But that is not the only reason for keeping the army away from the current mess. The most important reason for not embroiling the army is that the political parties know what is going on and who the killers are. They should, because every contestant is playing this bloody game. Let it be said plainly that we are not dealing with ghosts. And since the parties involved in the contest, the Pakistan Peoples Party, the Mutahidda Qaumi Movement and the Awami National Party, are together responsible for the current bloodshed, the civil administration and the police too know what’s happening, why and by whom.
Why should the army then be pulled in and to what end when the violence can be ended by the political parties? As I wrote elsewhere, the MQM knows it is losing control of the city. The demographics of Karachi are changing with the continuing influx of the Pashtun, and to some extent, since last year’s floods, by the Sindhis. That worries the MQM. But the MQM’s fear factor goes beyond having more Pashtun in Karachi. The party’s real concern is that it is convinced that the ruling PPP is embarked on a plan to reduce political space for it in urban Sindh.
The foremost issue in that context relates to the local government. The Musharraf devolution plan worked greatly to the MQM’s advantage. It gave the party the plinth on which to place the other two levels — provincial and national — of its vote. With that system gone, one of the major bones of contention is the shape and configuration of the local government system. Until that is worked out to the satisfaction of all the parties, especially the MQM, the violence will not ebb. Local government, and the manner in which the MQM plugs it into its two higher tiers of governance to aggregate interests, is the lynchpin of the party’s politics in Karachi. It is also the device through which it retains control of the city.
If the MQM were to concede ground on this score, it would mean the party’s vote disaggregation over time. The setback won’t just be at the local level but will also manifest itself at the provincial and national levels.
The PPP’s natural ally, given the nature of the contest, is the Awami National Party. The ANP justifiably wants a share in the city’s resources, including capturing the Pashtun vote. Its revisionism fits in with the PPP’s plan. In this trilateral struggle, the PPP and the ANP are loosely affiliated against the MQM and the next elections will definitely see seat adjustment between the two to try and capture at least two to three more NA seats in Karachi. The MQM fears just that. It also knows losing those seats could ultimately mean a downslide in its political fortunes.
The PPP has also brought the MQM under pressure, not just by aligning with the ANP and raising the spectre of the Haqiqi faction, but also by getting the British government (and the US administration) to put pressure on the party. This was helped in no small measure by Altaf Hussain’s anti-West and anti-US statements, though there is also a sense in London and Washington that the current government, for all its flaws, must complete its tenure.
The citizens, the traders, the MQM and the ANP may want the army to come in and cleanse Karachi but the government doesn’t want to make that call. It knows it can control the situation because it has a plan. True, those in the federal government are concerned about spiralling violence but they also have to bow to the wishes of elements within the party who are contesting for space in the local arena (that is one reason for the bitter exchanges between Zulfikar Mirza and Rehman Malik).
The problem is that like all plans, this one too could be the casualty of increasing violence. Into the melee have now also come criminal gangs, the land mafia and other vested interests that thrive on violence and instability. Business losses are increasing; productivity has declined tremendously. Most of all, there is great despondency.
But to think that any of this will make the contestants relent would be naive. The MQM is struggling for its unilateral control of the city; the others are pushing hard to make space for themselves. For the citizen, who is also the voter, there are no alternatives. Short of seeing a citizens’ movement, Karachi will remain mired in violence until one of the contestants emerges victorious or all agree on some rules of the game.
One argument in favour of army deployment is that at least it will quell the current violence. That may be true but the issue is not about mopping the floor, it is about turning off the tap. That can only be done by the contestants. In fact, this is the biggest irony: the very parties that are part of the government are also locked in a deadly embrace. This fact makes the current situation different from the nineties. It also accounts for the supposed ineffectiveness of the government.
The last time the army came to Karachi the situation was bad. The operation only created more problems. Then, too, everyone thought it best to pull in the army. Soon enough, everyone regretted the decision. There is nothing to suggest that the army deployment this time round would be different or give better results.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 25th, 2011.
COMMENTS (46)
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what is the harm in bringing the army in. what for it is. lot many r killed. lets save the others instead of discussing. sethi bhai is absolutelt right. if their is foreign aid to the warring paties army will take care of that. who else in our country is capable of dealing with them.
@gt: You wrote//Did not have to wait long for the conspiracy theorist!! Wah re Sethi, there is a Cabinet position in your future!!//
My friend, I am positive that you know,there was a time that it was thought by ignorant, that the earth's shape was Flat and not Round! Even then Round shape theory were ridiculed as conspiracy theorist :)...Not a single invention could have turned into a reality,without having been theorized first!...
My suggested caution is debunk theory's by all means which lack hard facts or logic backing them,but not the ones which do ! The west coined this "conspiracy theory" term to debunk challenger's claim to exposing their dubious,covert and nefarious acts.I wonder since when it caught on to our locality?.
Regarding the pun about the cabinet position.Believe me,only those are eligible for that position,who readily accept and follow, what is fed to them and not those who question :) Have a good day!
True those who have no other place to bury their dead and to Leave in case off bitter situations or calibrate marriages are the ones who are the die hards to make this city a success and return to sanity. No need for further hints, it is easy for anyone to realise who are the people who have built this city and who are the people who have sincere allegiance to its success. According to Imran Khan Karachi needs to be handed to governor Raj and Volunteers himself. What stake he has in Karachi and can he guarantee impartiality to mqm and ppp. Can you see any other level headed cool person more then Ishratul Ibad who has been the crises man in so many situations and is of those people who have sincere allegiance to this city.
@Yasser: true it is other parties who fear for seats and not MQM which believes in justice and eqaulity and true middleclass leadership , time for hereditory politics is coming to an end. Inshallah lyari will also have MQM MNA, ofcourse no problem with baloach speaking , it is the thought and belief systen and not ethnicity which is important .
best analysis by ejaz haider.......
nice description about this chaotic circumstances...................
@aysha majeed: wonderful insight to karachi problem , i wish more people see on these lines , we need to see who really are karachiite , no matter what language they speak if they are genuin karachiwala , and have nowahere to go if things get sour these are the only people who have true welfare of karachi their objective , It must be given acdemic and sociological assessment and then allow people to have permanent abode .
funny i meant my earlier letters
Theirs is a deity fattened on sacrifice and he is currently obese ha ha guess he ia responsible for all the atrocities
My faith in our country to come out of this mess has once again tarnished when there is no honesty and integrity , i really dont understand why my letter did not get published in full . When your news papers claim that views from every side will be given space , therefore my letter be printed with full text .
The article only hints citizens taking control themselves even though it should be its central theme. I think that is where the solution is. The politicians and the army are not. I would rather our intellectuals try and mobilize the people rather than simply meeting their column writing obligations. Ansar Burney is starting a movement. We need to prepare the citizens to take part in the movement. Even if he doesn't, people need to be mobilized still to express themselves through rallies and demonstration. So what if the citizens have to take over the streets as well. There is no hope if Karachi remains like Rwanda but there is if it becomes Cairo. Where are the rights activists? Why aren't they taking out rallies? The political parties outside Karachi are all quiet. Why are the PML N and Q both cooped up in Punjab and only watching the show. Why don't they come out to the street? Or was the restoration of CJP more important than saving lives? Where is Imran Khan? Why has he not made the ethnic violence in Karachi the central issue of his protests? Why can't the Pakistan government put pressure on UK to extradite Altaf Hussain? Why can't he be tried in Pakistan? Why can't Rehman Malik be arrested for total inefficiency and probable involvement in murders? Why can't we hold ANP and PPP responsible for collusion in the mass killing? This whole government is out of order. For the those supporting army action here, do you think that nosy ISI have not taken sides here? If I say who my comment might not be published so I will leave it for you to guess. Don't the ISI will hesitate from making an environment where army takeover of Karachi or the whole country is justified? They never have. Why would any intelligence agency not be involved in such a hot blood-fest as Karachi? A movement of the citizens is your solution. You can't expect mercy from mass murderers, can you? Mobilize yourself with or without the help of the Ijaz Haiders.
Save the links of your OP-ed and blogposts about demographic changes and ANP(who is hardly supported by 1000 Pashto speakers in Karachi) making any kind of in roads in Karachi politics in next election and you will see MQM not only regaining Karachi seats but will make inroads into TandoAllahyar, MirpurKhas and Bhit Shah. It is not MQM who is in fear, it is PPP who is in fear that they might end up becoming second largest Party in Sindh followed by the new largest party of Sindh that will be MQM. fingers crossed
I dont understand why my comment is reduced to one sentence that too doesn`t make any sense after getting chopped, i dont think it was longer than the comment made by M.Sethi , i would be thankful if my comments are given with full text which then make my opinion known to other readers , i hope the editor will not deny this right .I am so disappointed i thought your esteemed news paper which has become very popular in a short time would not act discriminately
Readers will celebrate when Mr. Ijaz Haider will find some fault with the Pakistan Army in engineering the terrorism, militancy and violence in Karachi. He doesn't have courage to admit that his organisation created those militant organisations which killed hundreds of doctors in Karachi. Perhaps doctors who were killed criminals, as per Mr. Haider's interpretation of patriotism, were traitors because they were Shias and subsequently were loyal to Iran! I wonder if he also pointed out that Dawood Ibrahim had been living in Karachi courtesy to ISI. Mr Ijaz needs also to remind himself that all ethnic and sectarian and divisive forces in Karachi were created by the Pakistan Army to weaken the political forces in Sindh! May God give courage to Mr Ijaz Haider to speak the truth!
Excellent analysis Ejaz! You have summed up the situation very nicely.
I am surprised at the comments here. Most people missed the point. Writer is saying that it is a political mess and it can only be resolved by the political parties involved. Army would like to stay away. Ejaz is not saying that sit back and enjoy the show. Let's see if the political parties resolve the issue which they could if they want to.
demographics of Karachi are changing with the continuing influx of the Pashtun
In the 1998 census, 48 per cent of the city’s population was Urdu-speaking, 14 per cent Punjabi-speaking, 12 per cent Pushto-speaking and some nine per cent Sindhi-speaking.
Did not have to wait long for the conspiracy theorist!! Wah re Sethi, there is a Cabinet position in your future!!
In case of Krachi-problem the main hurdle is our age old nature i.e.-know all tell nothing- developed over a long period of time due to different social upheavals through history caused by constant conquests from north and south by invaders of varying faiths and beliefs,Overtime a strange kind of dislike towards each other has penetrated our minds and created a mindset which has divided us into different groups vis-a-vis provincialism,ethnicity,linguistic-divide,religious-divide(same religion different groups and groups within groups of various faiths?),Infiltraters and refugees(not those who migrated in 1947) have further aggravated the situation,as they are now almost permanently setteled in various parts of Pakistan,and want to be treated as equals but give nothing in return,because when it comes to give they become non pakistanis.So to earnestly solve Karachi-problem(and of entire country) mammoth deliberations and concrete action are very urgently required..who will do that??
Hilarious, how people have jumped on the easy bandwagon of letting those inept politicians sort out the mess, while people are dying.
It’s not OK to let this go on.
It is not your mother, father, brother, sister, son, or daughter that is dodging bullets and in the crossfire.
Close your eyes and imagine anything even 10% close to this in a civilized society.
Is a Pakistanis life worth so little....or it's not your family member that is directly suffering.
..Easy isn't it for all the arm chair quarterbacks or as you would say in cricket lingo captain
Do you remember the accusations of MQM regarding Talibanization of Karachi? Have you considered the possibility that there is a link between removal of FC check posts in Balochistan as a part of the "Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan?" Did the present Govt do anything else for the people of Balochistan under this program besides removing the check posts to please a few local MPAs and MNAs? Do you know that now, Hub (Balochistan) has become a hub of Taliban activities? Do you know the distance between Hub and Karachi? Why is the violence most intense in Kati Pahari and surroundings of Sohrab Goth? The answer is simple, PPP encouraged the ANP as an ally to try to gain space (for bhata mafias) from MQM. To do this, hardcore fighters were brought in from tribal areas. So, basically, if the Army is brought in, the scenario will be very different from past IS operations in Karachi. This time, intense violent actions will be taken against the Army and the local population including suicide bombings at a scale that surpasses Peshawar. The problem in Karachi is a political mess in which the mainstream political parties are not using conventional means (such as campaigning and public service) to enhance their influence. Instead they have resorted to the 80-90s methods of street violence and target killings. Things have escalated. However, the answer is not in the deployment of the Army, it lies in a political settlement. The people of Karachi need to teach their parties the correct way of pursuing political objectives. Otherwise throw them out - all of them!!!!
What? No CIA/RAW conspiracy behind the killings?!
One of the finest analysis I have read on this issue!
With the hordes descending upon Karachi with their tribal mindset where arms are considered a piece of ornament and the size and quality of the weaponry possessed demarcate area under control, we have lost Karachi, the city, the ethos, the evening cool breeze.
If this should be considered at all, each province and its people have one big city (Lahore, Quetta, Peshawar & Karachi). I have no idea why our brothers from KPK deserve to make living out of two cities and even become a stakeholder. Also, it needs to be decided born and raised in Sindh are sindhis, are Pasthuns are also sindhis?
They currently may not seem a threat to the big landlords of Sindh because they don’t talk about land reforms, or for the welfare of the harees, but after taking over Karchi, they will move on deeper into sindh.
They can continue to live in Karachi and take their share out of the bleeding economy of the city, but should they have voting rights? One must address this question academically. Do they bury their dead in Karachi, do they keep their money in Karachi and many more questions to follow.
Please have some sense prevail in the city. MQM may not continue to be the leading party of urban sindh, all parties have their taste of glory and vote bank, their days may be over.
But can we have people who have the welfare of the city at heart and not consider it a goldmine to, dig, devour and dispatch.
Agreed! The best analysis I have read so far. See it is not always foreign intervention or some supposed "U.S plan for Pakistan". Our Geo-strategic position and what we have had to go through because of it has skewed our mindset towards international politics than domestic. About time we re-think.
The three stakeholders involved in Karachi are equally responsible for this carnage. Each one of them wants an absolute control over the prize. Innocent people are being murdered for the sake of money and land. Its a gang war. Mafias are stronger than law enforcing agencies. Army is the only viable institution which is not afraid to take any action. True that the decrease in violence would be short lived which makes it important to find a long lasting and genuine solution of this festering wound. Unfortunately, given the intricacy of this problem and deep rooted interests involved, the solution would not be that simple.
Totally agree with EH that this is a political issue and be solved politically. Army if comes in to aid the civil admin will be use less because these are the people who are actually part of the problem but the subsequent question is can one be a part of the solution who are part of the problem.My suggestion as one being born and raised in karachi is that bring in governor rule (change the present one with someone more respectable like justice fakhrundin ibrahim,asma jehangir,asma jehangir who is neither mohajir,pathan or sindi),kick out all grade 18 police officers(all are political appointees are are part of the problem) and bring in federal government police people and have for god sake rehman malik and dr zulfiqar out of the sight.
Correct analysis!
You start with the reflection of comparing the intensity and depicting the gory scenario of what is taking in Karachi with Rwanda ,but strangely not the scenario of the former East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) in 1971.Where similarly it was thought to be a "Political Death Dance' close to the gruesome acts witnessed in Karachi, were unleashed on the West Pakistanis and Biharis by the Indian trained militant wing of the Awami league called the Mukti Bahini?.
I feel you have the analysis quite close to what it seems on the surface.However,why over-look the possibility of a foreign third party's hand in it ?.Especially bearing in mind that the whole of Pakistan,in the aftermath of the 9/11 has been a victim of the worst type of terrorism! Another few thing which draws ones mind towards a God forbid, deeper conspiracy, are the gruesome and horrific atrocities perpetrated on innocent unarmed victims,by the terrorists which have sent terror down the spine of the innocent people of Karachi.For instance,burning a bus loaded with passengers on board and the daring act of attacking the truck load of Police men resulting in killing a few and the way the condition in which the dead bodies were found mutilated,some with heads chopped of or throat slit etc.
Historically and presently, Western empires have divided people against each other, blamed the resulting conflict on the people themselves, and thus justified their control over both the people, and the region they occupy. This was the strategy employed in major recent geopolitical conflicts such as the breakup of Yugoslavia and the Rwandan genocide.
In both above captioned cases, Western imperial ambitions were met through exacerbating ethnic rivalries..providing financial, technical, and military aid and training to various factions; thus, spreading violent conflict, war, and genocide.thus, spreading violent conflict, war, and genocide. In both cases, Western, and primarily American strategic interests were met through an increased presence militarily, pushing out other major imperial and powerful rivals, as well as increasing Western access to key economics resources...
What if the agenda for Pakistan God forbid could be similar to that applied throughout the broader Middle East Central Asian region. Our hidden enemy's strategy, supported by covert intelligence operations, consists in triggering ethnic and religious strife, abetting and financing could be for a secessionist movements, while also weakening the institutions of the central government ?.Having the broader objective to fracture the Nation State and redraw the borders of Pakistan!
Many known western and local analysts have written in articles showing speculative foresight that Pakistan prior to 2015,could through a plan be destabilized by a civil war on the basis of ethnic strife.
Today what is happening in Karachi and Quetta,could it be beginning of that international conspiracy ?.These could be hired international conspirators men having mingled amongst local party's you had named in your analysis above.In order to to pit each other against each other ?.Would it be wiser that.before the situation gets out of hand the Pakistan Army should immediately act and take control of the city ?Instead of being complacent with short memory span of what took place in Abbotabad in May this same year!...
I would personally be grateful to see my Pakistan Army patrolling the city,then some foreign one!
May Allah bless us and Pakistan and keep in his aman (protection) always.Ameen!
Excellent analysis,
Ejaz Saab tell us one thing? what should be done? why do all the self acclaimed intellectuals so lenient with these political parties? they want their share of the city on the expense of innocent peoples lives, you suggest that don't bring in the army, i say why not? people are dying everyday like sheep's and you say sit back and let the political clowns play their cat and mouse chase, this is no logic.
Yes we all know that army's job is to defend the borders, i by no means am in the favor of army but when you cannot handle the bloodshed something has to be done, try telling all this analysis of yours to the people who have lost fathers,sons,husbands and other family members,what sort of people are we? people die and we say army will not go the barracks once its unleashed, if these political government had played a positive role from the beginning there would have been no menace of martial law.so by a citizens point of view i might get the impression that the current democratic champion government has failed us a big time but yeah analysts and intellectual say let them play their games. God bless.
A simple solution would be to NOT support either of these parties in the next election. We all know they aren't any good for us or the city. If someone still believes otherwise they need lightning to strike them to have some senses knocked into them.
yes precisely, leave it upto the criminals to sort out the mess they intentionally created. what makes you think those who started this heinous bloodshed are "sincerely" thinking of restoring peace in the city?
So what your saying is that the political parties who are sponsoring the kidnapping/torture/murder should be left alone to work things out? Does that really sound reasonable to anyone?
The requirement is a political solution, the share of political power and the rewards assoicated with that power. Since PPP is the larger party with interests both at the provincial level as well as the centre, it has to suggest the willingness to negotiate and give up some of the rewards, in the larger Pakistani national interest. And most of all voters at the next electoral contest should think beyond immediate ethnic affiliation, and reward the parties that show inclination to compromise rather than those that for the sake of their own selfish interests, continue to look the other way while innocent men are losing their lives.
problem at this point of time to stop this bledshed, what so ever means may be adopted. Can we wait for series of dialogue meanwhile bodies are coming down. They must be forced to come up some point. If we will keep on waiting for dialogue. we will lose image, economic crises, more bloodshed and after some time situation would be resembling mexican gang war. We need to realise this.Ranger will definitely not take initiative due to obvious reason. Media created a hipe on one such killing. Where is media now. Every one means every one safeguarding their interest.
So easy to write an essay or an article about the cause All parties are involved...OK...implying let them work it out…huh huh So sit back and play the backseat analyzer and maybe it will all end.... Intellectual neophytes and banana republic thinking at best
Clean the crap...any way possible even to get a temporary relief in order to place a strategic plan...army may be a short term solution but needed to stop the bleeding (police and rangers are shackled)....maybe it will save a single life...
Grow up...maybe the world will start to look at you seriously...i.e. foreign investment, partnerships, and economic cooperation....just maybe
Very good analysis. One thing more to add is that PPP and ANP have many things in common ie manned by Sardars, Maliks and Jagirdars; and both parties are headed by one family ie chairmanship based on heir ship; while MQM is manned by educated persons, mostly professionals and properly trained as politicians and bound by a harsh and strict discipline.
Does this mean that Pakistan and by extension Muslims have a problem that can not be laid at the door of Hanood/Yahood/Nasra or RAW/Mossad/CIA fellows? Strange indeed.
And the White as Lilies all conquering Pak Afwaz may not be the best bet in Karachi?Stranger still.
Pakistan was handed over to incompetent and selfish people who excelled in crookery , nepotism, corruption and bypassing of standards / procedures etc.
Our condition will become worst until and unless we adopt Honesty as our national policy.
As usual excellent article!
A very well reasoned article, and one of the rare times I find myself agreeing with the author's view on the army - even if it does omit that the "everyone" who want the army to come into Karachi include the army itself. Martial law in Karachi is the old military tactic of restoring prestige and confronting the government. Well done Ejaz - one hopes good sense will prevail.
Good analysis, actually these three parties are equally responsible for killing the innocent people. And if the government has a plan to control the situation then why it is playing delaying tactics, but just to revenge each others
It is too simple an explanation. I think few know who is behind all the killings. Talk to anybody in private and he will blame this or that group depending on which side of the fence he is standing. Reason is lacking. If we bother to reason at all, far too many of us do so only to confirm our views So the theory that political parties know what is going on is sketchy. If those running the country knew, they will solve the problem and get all the credit for it and be sure to be elected next time around. The problem with the army is that when it comes, it sticks round for far too long. Army should concentrate to what they are hired for: Defend the borders and leave the country to civilians, however inefficient they may be.