Dar-konomics

J ust imagine the UK economy going down with a double deficit, on current and fiscal accounts; the US on a spree of raising interest rate to supposedly curb inflation which they will fail to; and economists around the world yelling out their throats that the global economic depression is coming, not in years but in months or weeks. They are predicting the fall of the European economy, and the fall of once blooming economies around the world. And here comes our superman Mr Dar, right from the UK, with his magic wand, and abracadabra the dollar starts falling to the rupee.

The nation is stunned and amazed, they are waiting for him to take the rabbit of economic reforms out of his hat and set the country going on a path to progress. But no, within two weeks of his return, he heads back to the US now. The nation is now waiting again — will he be back with the rabbit, or will he be back with a broken wand! Just think what a bankrupt UK would have given Dar on his way home, and what the straggledout US economy will have given him this time. Both these states have notoriously built up staggering debts — the US has a debt of 124.7% of their GDP and the UK 99.6%. They are both in trouble and both have one formula to carry forward: accrue more debts. So how does this whole thing work? How do bankrupt states create farce money and lend it to others? How does Dar step into Pakistan after five years, makes no economic reforms, and the dollar goes down? Is it the market’s confidence in him, or is it the US and UK’s confidence in him — confidence that he will throw Pakistan’s foreign policy on the anti-Russia, anti-China path.

What does this give to the US and the UK. Perhaps another chance to partake in the coming Asian Century, and another chance to disrupt regional integration of Pakistan with neighbouring powers like Russia and China? And what does Pakistan get in return? Just the Sharif brothers, again! To understand Dar-konomics then, you really have to understand the global scenario of how economics is going down everywhere, and how everyone needs to prepare for a long depression by making the right choices, or one should say by making the right sacrifices. But we can’t start doing that before we start saying the truth and accepting it. What Dar should have done was to explain to the people how the UK and US are facing turmoil; how IMF has predicted Germany and Italy to be hit by a recession by next year; how Credit Suisse, where they used to dump all the good money, has share prices fallen by 60% and is defaulting on its payments; and how China’s zero-Covid lockdown policy has stagnated what was left of the economic flow around the world! And then he should have explained that no one is in a position to help them.

The only way they will agree to give us something is by taking a pound of flesh right off our living bodies in return. But he didn’t do that. He instead told the Pakistani people that we need to make friends with the US, we need to keep begging from the IMF, and we need to comply with the FAFT! And all this notwithstanding the fact that it was the US that we fought out from Afghanistan by standing behind the Taliban for full 20 years; it was the US that kept saying we needed to do more and more; it was the US that made strategic alliance with India and said that it was Pakistan that harboured terrorism and was the exporter of terrorism into the world! But Dar wants us to dismiss the 20 years recent memory, and start singing Baa Baa Black Sheep again, because it’s going to be one for the master, one for the dame, and only one, leftover, for the poor people of Pakistan from now.

The thing is, when the whole global economy is sliding down and when the IMF and World Bank are sending warnings of default to states around the world, how can they promise an open wallet and more subsidies to Pakistan — a country that has never been able to truly ally with them. If they do make a promise, it’s going to be as farce as the farce money the Western economies are running on. In fact, days before Dar headed for the US, the Moody’s Index downgraded Pakistan’s debt ratings to Caa1 from B3, which negative growth prediction. And while he was in the US, the IMF only signaled that giving subsidies is not a favourable practice, and that more reforms are needed in energy and monetary sector, meaning that IMF is not in the mood of bending to Dar’s wish list.

The truth is that Pakistan will have to face inflation and a depression that are both global in nature; there is no running away from that! Except if we can find new structure of growth from the ruins of the failing global economy. Perhaps recreating a global order with Russia, China, Central Asia and Afghanistan can be that new structure which can potentially make this a self-sufficient and progressive regional hub. But Dar and the lot don’t believe in this regionalism, they believe in keep sticking to a dying capitalism just because it gives their family a sense of power and provides safe haven for their wealth.

The conflict in Pakistan may seem between two parties or an internal conflict to many, but it is by all means an international one and will reflect on the future of our region. What is to be seen is whether the family will prevail over the nation or vice versa. And if the nation prevails, Dar and his baseless economics will probably vanish from the national scene again, because as soon as the cow jumps over the moon, the dish will run away with the spoon!