Mega flood-2022, effects and mitigation strategy

Last week, we discussed drainage problems in Pakistan with special reference to Sindh. This piece would focus on riverine floods, mitigation strategies and impact of the Flood-2022.

Starting from North, Rivers Swat, Panjkora, Kabul and its branches/tributaries like Budhni, Sardaryab, Naguman and Shah Alam that drain Upper KP, Charsadda, Nowshera, and part of Peshawar District, are small rivers that burst their banks with little excess inflows. However, their course through densely populated areas of KP, makes any deluge risky. In order to enhance capacity, dredging/deepening is one option. Hilly rivers/torrents upstream of Kabul River System cannot be expanded/deepened cost-effectively. The under-construction Mohmand Dam is likely to resolve flooding issues in the Kabul/Swat River System and Peshawar Valley, once completed.

However, high inflows in Indus at Attock generally dam the Landay (Kabul River). Landay’s reverse-flow consequently blocks rainwater from some nalas, draining Cherat mountains around Nowshera. This has traditionally caused floods and destruction in Nowshera District. With just 300,000 cusecs, Landay plays havoc with Nowshera and surrounding villages. Therefore, dredging/expansion of Kabul River in Charsadda and Nowshera Districts (land is available in the vicinity of Aza Khel) would resolve Kabul River’s capacity shortfalls.

GB Rivers have space and depth, and Tarbela has greater capacity to mitigate floods, if its spillways are timely opened to synchronize with River Kabul inflows at Attock (a critically tough decision).

Barrages on Indus – including Chashma, Jinnah, Taunsa, Guddu and Kotri Barrage – and the canal system linking rivers (TP Link, CJ Link etc) do a good job in storing and regulating water flows through Punjab. However, silting of Indus, barrage resilience, and data accuracy once water overflows the gauges needs to be critically considered. And where essential, barrages be expanded and strengthened, especially the 90-year-old Kotri (Sukkar) Barrage.

As a policy practice, and in order to save barrage(s) and other water works, river/canal banks are breached upstream to release excess water to the erstwhile wastelands which, with the passage of time and with growing population, are no more waste. Such breaches, done by Irrigation Deptt or politically untouchable influentials or locals especially in lower Sindh, also contribute to flooding. Generally powerful landlords save their lands at the cost of have-nots…rightly called haris. The new trend is intentional inundation of villages with opposition votes by PPP bigwigs through breaches using armed men. Therefore, most villages had recently deployed their own night vigil parties.

For containing Indus River flooding, de-silting and dredging the main/flood channels, construction and strengthening of dikes/bunds to withstand at least a million cusecs of flow between Guddu, Sukkur and downstream, and capacity enhancement of some barrages are vital. Right Bank Outfall Drain (RBOD) be speedily completed and more reservoirs be created east of Indus in lower Sind like SCARP-I in Punjab. We also need more dams, although experts are divided on large dams, that potentially enhance evaporation area under climate-induced intense heat waves, causing more cloud formation and cloudburst.

As far as hill torrents are concerned, these follow defined routes, and can be channelised to empty into smaller/linear dams. Alternatively, confined within bunds, these can be drained into nearby rivers or bigger nalas. Besides saving population and property, their stored water can be optimally utilised.

During first R2 (Rescue & Relief), experience shows heavy rains and strong winds limit the use of helicopter and boats, compared to hovercraft, the work horse in 2010 floods. Presently only PN, Sindh Rangers and Coast Guards have these in limited numbers. More manufacture/acquisition is required. Likewise, placement of flood relief equipment is also important. To reduce reaction time during Indus floods for example, relief equipment be placed around Pano Aqil for better response.

That brings us to the damages and potential losses from this mega flood. With almost a third of Pakistan under water; around 33 million (unofficially 50 million) people displaced; over 2,000 fatalities and no data on those injured; a cost estimated as of now crossing $20 billion, without the hidden costs of trauma, emotional tragedy and destroyed dreams and aspirations that can never by accurately compiled; Mega Flood-2022 indeed remains a catastrophe of epic proportions.

The livestock losses are close to a million cattle head, more than two million acres of farmland and 90% of crops are damaged. Rice (Badin and Jacobabad) and cotton (Sukkur and Benazir Abad) crops, date trees and sugar cane stand nearly obliterated. Staple food including 50% onion crop, chili and tomatoes are gone. Survivors have to start lives all over, with most not wanting to return to their villages, if better options crop up. Migrations to cities is a stark reality further undermining our agricultural economy. And all this for no fault of Pakistan and its people.

By comparison, during last floods in 2010, Pakistan’s Meteorological Department recorded 70 to 102% above normal rains nationwide. This time in just one city Khanpur (Punjab), the downpour was 1,483% above normal. Then, the USAID estimated 1.7 million damaged homes, and over 20 million people affected. And with a fifth of the country under water, the economic losses were calculated over $11 billion. The comparative consequences of global warming are, therefore, terrifying for Pakistan. With 2.6% of world’s population, Pakistan contributes a minuscule 0.5% to global carbon emissions, compared to the US, with about 4% of the world’s population contributing about 13%. So, the Global North has to face up to its moral, ethical and humanitarian responsibility.

The likely scenario unfolding is a human catastrophe. Production shortfalls are broadly estimated at around two million tons for rice only, and unaccounted for cotton, vegetables, fruit, wheat, pulses and milk. Wheat storage inundation/ruin and non-availability of the land for winter cultivation due to undrained floodwater may cause higher flour prices and shortages. GDP growth will be adversely affected, given the absence revenue from land and associated sectors like livestock/dairy farming, poultry, fisheries and meat production in addition to stalled industrial output. Unemployment and food inflation may contribute to crimes. Disease proliferation, malnutrition, mother-child health are some other areas of immense concern.

However, with a reinvigorated world response and through tireless, efficient and dedicated rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts under a conducive political environment, this challenge can be turned into an opportunity.

This was not the first flood and this will not be the last one, therefore preparedness is the key. (Concluded)

Published in The Express Tribune, September 15^th, 2022.

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