Navigating the US-China rivalry

In more than over half a decade Pakistan has developed a strong, all-encompassing relationship with China that has multiple dimensions that serve the interest of both countries. China has contributed significantly to building and supporting Pakistan’s defence capabilities and the industrial infrastructure and continues to do so. It is the main source of supply of weapon systems and transfer of technology. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has been the flagship project of BRI and is one of the most ambitious infrastructure undertaking. This project has opened up new avenues for China to extend and expand its influence in the region. More importantly, China has been a consistent and reliable ally supporting Pakistan at regional and global forums, acting as a counter to any adverse fallout from the Indo-US strategic alliance. On Afghanistan too, their interests converge as instability and rise of Islamic militant forces are a common enemy of both. Pakistan’s support to China in the political field at international assemblies and conferences has been equally robust that is well recognised by it. So, the China-Pakistan relationship has been to mutual advantage and there has been consistency and high reliability factor in this rapport.

At the early years of its inception, Pakistan enjoyed an excellent relationship with the US being characterised “as the most allied ally”. However, the conflict with India in 1965 and the subsequent sanctions imposed by the US on aid and sale of defence-related equipment pushed Pakistan closer to China. Pakistan realising the significance of the lone superpower and the inherent linkages and bonds between the two countries has tried to maintain good relations, and does not consider its close relationship with China a contradiction in terms but an advantage. It strongly believes great power competition would only bring more grief to them and to the world at large. No doubt, China is facing a difficult economic situation, but past experience and resolve of the Chinese people guided by a determined leadership of Chairman Xi Jinping will steer the country through the present crisis. Covid-19 did slow down work on the current phase of the CPEC projects but these are again picking up with the present PMLN-led coalition government determined to work closely with Chinese to speed up the 1320 MW Sahiwal Coal-fired Power Plant, 660 MW Engro Thar Coal power Project and 1000MW Solar Park.

The build-up of India by the US and its Western allies for the last few years to countervail China has increased the intricacies of the US-Pakistan relationship. What’s encouraging is that despite these complex and diverse challenges, the US and Pakistan are moving towards building new bridges and improving their relationship to mutual advantage. Washington considers Pakistan’s role critical in stabilising Afghanistan and expects that the two countries would cooperate in sharing intelligence to mutual advantage. The targeted killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri may not have been possible without intelligence cooperation of the US with regional countries.

Pakistan and China have been urging the US to release Afghanistan’s frozen funds as the country is going through its worst economic crisis. However, with Taliban providing protection to late al-Zawahiri; and TTP, al-Qaeda and other militant groups freely operating despite their commitment that they would not permit any of these groups to operate has resulted in the US, China and Pakistan losing confidence in them. Moreover, the Taliban leadership remains adamant in perusing their antiquated policies of keeping women under strict isolation, fully veiled and girls not allowed to attend classes beyond primary level. This obviously would have far-reaching consequences for the future generations of Afghanistan.

The US would like to see tensions between India and Pakistan ease so that India could fully focus on the perceived Chinese dominance in the region. The possibility of lifting arms embargo on Pakistan at least in certain categories is expected although considering the country’s economic situation any major defence deal would not be possible.

For Pakistani students, the US is the most attractive destination for higher studies and for acquiring technological and scientific know-how. The freedom of expression and strong democratic traditions find favour with our South Asian instincts. Besides, those who have studied or worked in the US generally develop affinity and build bridges of goodwill with the country. Similarly, Americans who have spent time in Pakistan would have a soft corner for the country. The adverse security situation and the spread of Covid-19 has restricted movement of the American and foreign citizens in Pakistan. This is, however, not to ignore that there are people and certain societies in both countries that look at each other with suspicion and could pose a security threat.

Recent statement by the US Secretary of State to increase engagement at the political level, “improve trade relations and create opportunities for American and Pakistani investors, businessmen and entrepreneurs to work together” augurs well and should find traction. There are several areas where the US has been working closely and providing assistance to Pakistan. It has been promoting the use of clean energy, so critical in combating the climate crisis. Other areas include health and promoting trade and investment. On Afghanistan and terrorism issues, the two countries cooperate closely. The US is Pakistan’s largest export market. In 2021, the US imports from Pakistan valued over $5 billion, more than any other country. Pakistan has to further improve quality and broaden the range of its products to take exports to even higher level. The US direct investment is also one of the highest. However, the present political conditions and economic distress have discouraged investors — a fact that is being grossly overlooked by our politicians.

But if Pakistan’s politics remains as combative and internal divisions so sharp, it is unlikely that foreign investment would be attracted. Even Pakistan’s own entrepreneurs are holding back their investment and watching how the politics and security situation unfolds. The IMF agreement will be finalised soon. But do the politicians realise their responsibilities and restore confidence at home and abroad that the country has a future?

Published in The Express Tribune, August 24^th, 2022.

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