Has Afghan Taliban’s return benefited Pakistan?
The writer is a senior foreign affairs correspondent at The Express Tribune
‘I have to admit Pakistan has outshined us in Afghanistan,’ conceded a diplomat based in Islamabad days after the Afghan Taliban stormed Kabul even before the last foreign soldier left Afghanistan. ‘The first part of the battle you have won but can you sustain this in the long run?’ was the question that the said diplomat posed to me in our discussion. His skepticism stemmed from the fact that the return of the Afghan Taliban might actually haunt Pakistan.
Today marks the one year since the Afghan Taliban returned to power. Their comeback was remarkable in many ways as it defied a series of the US intelligence assessments. The belief in Pakistan was that under the US-backed regime in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s security interests hurt the most. Officials often pointed to a nexus between the Indian intelligence agencies and Afghan security apparatus to undermine Pakistan’s security and its interest. Describing groups such as banned TTP and its affiliates as Indian proxies was a national policy.
The return of the Afghan Taliban was celebrated as it made people and policymakers believe that the new rulers of Afghanistan would not provide safe havens to our enemies. In return for seeking international legitimacy, the Afghan Taliban would take care of TTP and other terror outfits. The peace in Afghanistan will unlock the potential of trade and energy links with central Asian states and beyond via Afghanistan. Pakistan, living in a hostile neighborhood, will be pleased that at least its western border is secure and has a friendly government there.
Have things really turned out the way Pakistan hoped for? Pakistan’s main concern was the presence of TTP and its affiliates. After the military operation in the erstwhile tribal areas, the TTP found refuge across the border. While their infrastructure was completely eliminated from Pakistan, the terror outfit maintained basis across the border causing continuing headache to the country. After the Taliban takeover, Pakistan wasted no time and handed over a list of most wanted TTP terrorists. Pakistan was confident that the Afghan Taliban would take no time in addressing its concerns. But the return of the Afghan Taliban rather emboldened the TTP. Some of the TTP terrorists including their senior commanders who were kept in jail by the former Afghan administration were freed by the Taliban. There was a sudden spike in the number of TTP terror attacks. Around 120 Pakistani security officials lost their lives from August 2021 to April 2022 when the TTP finally agreed to a ceasefire after a series of meetings with Pakistani officials. In some of those attacks it is said even low ranked Taliban fighters aided the TTP terrorists.
When there was no let-up in cross-border terrorist attacks, Pakistan had to launch air strikes targeting the TTP hideouts across the border in April. On top of it Pakistan for the first time issued a strong statement saying Afghan soil was being used with impunity. It asked the Afghan Taliban to take stern action against all those elements. Those were first signs that Pakistan’s patience with the Afghan Taliban was running thin. The air strikes coupled with a warning compelled the Afghan Taliban to persuade the TTP for talks with Pakistan. But those talks have not yet produced a tangible outcome except for a ceasefire. Though keen on seeking a peace deal, Afghan Taliban are not exercising their full influence over the TTP. Thus, the TTP is not budging from its demand on reversal of the FATA merger. The TTP enjoys unprecedented support in Afghanistan. Their leaders have the status of ministers. They are the only couple of militant outfits in Afghanistan which can carry arms under the Taliban rule. These developments clearly show that the return of the Afghan Taliban has yet to benefit Pakistan!
Published in The Express Tribune, August 15th, 2022.
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‘I have to admit Pakistan has outshined us in Afghanistan,’ conceded a diplomat based in Islamabad days after the Afghan Taliban stormed Kabul even before the last foreign soldier left Afghanistan. ‘The first part of the battle you have won but can you sustain this in the long run?’ was the question that the said diplomat posed to me in our discussion. His skepticism stemmed from the fact that the return of the Afghan Taliban might actually haunt Pakistan.
Today marks the one year since the Afghan Taliban returned to power. Their comeback was remarkable in many ways as it defied a series of the US intelligence assessments. The belief in Pakistan was that under the US-backed regime in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s security interests hurt the most. Officials often pointed to a nexus between the Indian intelligence agencies and Afghan security apparatus to undermine Pakistan’s security and its interest. Describing groups such as banned TTP and its affiliates as Indian proxies was a national policy. The return of the Afghan Taliban was celebrated as it made people and policymakers believe that the new rulers of Afghanistan would not provide safe havens to our enemies. In return for seeking international legitimacy, the Afghan Taliban would take care of TTP and other terror outfits. The peace in Afghanistan will unlock the potential of trade and energy links with central Asian states and beyond via Afghanistan. Pakistan, living in a hostile neighborhood, will be pleased that at least its western border is secure and has a friendly government there.
Have things really turned out the way Pakistan hoped for? Pakistan’s main concern was the presence of TTP and its affiliates. After the military operation in the erstwhile tribal areas, the TTP found refuge across the border. While their infrastructure was completely eliminated from Pakistan, the terror outfit maintained basis across the border causing continuing headache to the country. After the Taliban takeover, Pakistan wasted no time and handed over a list of most wanted TTP terrorists. Pakistan was confident that the Afghan Taliban would take no time in addressing its concerns. But the return of the Afghan Taliban rather emboldened the TTP. Some of the TTP terrorists including their senior commanders who were kept in jail by the former Afghan administration were freed by the Taliban. There was a sudden spike in the number of TTP terror attacks. Around 120 Pakistani security officials lost their lives from August 2021 to April 2022 when the TTP finally agreed to a ceasefire after a series of meetings with Pakistani officials. In some of those attacks it is said even low ranked Taliban fighters aided the TTP terrorists.
When there was no let-up in cross-border terrorist attacks, Pakistan had to launch air strikes targeting the TTP hideouts across the border in April. On top of it Pakistan for the first time issued a strong statement saying Afghan soil was being used with impunity. It asked the Afghan Taliban to take stern action against all those elements. Those were first signs that Pakistan’s patience with the Afghan Taliban was running thin. The air strikes coupled with a warning compelled the Afghan Taliban to persuade the TTP for talks with Pakistan. But those talks have not yet produced a tangible outcome except for a ceasefire. Though keen on seeking a peace deal, Afghan Taliban are not exercising their full influence over the TTP. Thus, the TTP is not budging from its demand on reversal of the FATA merger. The TTP enjoys unprecedented support in Afghanistan. Their leaders have the status of ministers. They are the only couple of militant outfits in Afghanistan which can carry arms under the Taliban rule. These developments clearly show that the return of the Afghan Taliban has yet to benefit Pakistan!
Published in The Express Tribune, August 15th, 2022.
Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.