Did the lion fall prey to hubris?

Not long ago, PML-N leadership would proudly say that its ticket has become a hot cake and Imran Khan’s politics were over. Back then, little did it imagine that the former cricketer-turned politician would continue bowling bouncers and in-swing yorkers with devastating pace and wouldn’t just give up after a defeat in the no-confidence motion move back in April. The PML-N-led coalition government came to power on the promises to turn around an economy in dire straits, reduce inflation and oil prices, revitalise growth and bury the politics of the opponents – mainly Imran Khan’s – for once and all. In return, the coalition government has so far only managed to burn its political capital and give new life to Imran Khan’s PTI, which faced heavy criticism over poor performance just a few months ago.

While the coalition government was busy mulling over taking tough economic decisions and weighing its cost, Imran Khan was holding rallies after rallies to castigate the powerful stakeholders of the country – army and judiciary – and even lashed out at the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC), which he has still continued to do even after winning 15 out of 20 seats in the recent Punjab by-polls. Imran tactfully followed his plan of assailing the bigwigs and denied his statements where necessary after the message was sent across. From lashing out at the judiciary and the army to the opponents and the CEC, Imran presented the Punjab by-polls not just as a face-off between PTI and the ruling alliance but raised the stakes of typical by-elections to that of a referendum.

His untiring campaign and relentless offensive worked and PTI retained Punjab, which was further cemented by the Supreme Court’s decision on the Punjab CM’s election fiasco, after the voters punished the ruling alliance for doing exactly the opposite of what they promised before coming to power. PML-N can take pride in the notion that Shehbaz Sharif has progressed from Punjab speed to Pakistan speed but they have little to show in their performance category at this early stage of their rule. To add insult to injury, what is currently attached to PML-N-led government image is sky-rocketing inflation, dollar rate and petroleum prices, to name a few.

Being branded as an able administrator isn’t apparently working for the government as it has neither been able to persuade the international money lenders nor the friendly countries to give monetary support badly needed by the country to come out of the massive economic crisis it is currently in. The hindrance has even blocked Shehbaz to give any future plans and, at the moment, he is on his toes for getting financial support from anyone. During his premiership, rupee has lost its value by Rs55 or roughly 30 percent and yet another inflationary storm is knocking at the door. Shehbaz, who personally likes to achieve targets even before the deadline, appears to be have lost his political touch and his constant claim that the government has taken difficult decisions to save the country instead of saving politics has fallen on the deaf ears. Limited presence of PML-N on social media is another area where it is struggling to counter PTI.

When compared with Imran, Shehbaz is neither a crowed-puller nor has any appeal as a national-level leader. The party insiders say that Nawaz and Maryam have both those traits however, going into elections without the elder Sharif didn’t even work in Punjab let alone the country. At the moment, the claim that Pakistan was saved from default and bankruptcy by taking some tough decisions has little appeal among the voters and almost no political mileage for the ruling parties. People blame the PML-N government for making it extremely difficult for them to make ends meet by frequently increasing prices of petroleum products. They feel that only the poor have suffered and the decisions made so far have little impact on the stable segments of the society, especially, the political elite.

The fat cabinet, they say, is just an example of burdening the national exchequer while accommodating party members and allies of the government. At a time when people are being called upon to sacrifice, the perks and privileges of the political elite and the powerful business circles have largely remained protected. This has little political resonance among the voters and, apparently, mere words have not been able to stir peoples’ emotion. Feeling that they themselves have been bankrupted because of the government’s decisions, the speeches, press conferences and tweets have little impact when the parties head for elections.

Recent Punjab by-poll results have made the ruling alliance anxious and those who were confident that their party’s ticket or support would be enough to win elections have started feeling that things are not in their control and they need to come up with something that would work, like calling former premier Nawaz Sharif back to Pakistan and start campaigning. The devastating results of Punjab elections have done two things: it took away the pride of certainly winning a seat and the self-created surety of rising to power in the next elections on PML-N’s ticket. The Punjab debacle has forced the ruling alliance to rethink their strategy as the sword of snap polls is hanging on their heads despite their frequent claims that the federal government would complete the remaining tenure. Retaining Punjab was so crucial that several PML-N leaders temporarily quit portfolios for campaigning in the by-polls yet the results turned out to be a nightmare for them.

With Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in PTI’s hands, the fear that the coalition partners of the government could leave any moment has further shaken the ruling party’s confidence as all the parties have repeatedly said that they would be contesting the next general elections on their own instead of fighting as an alliance. The whispers of dissatisfaction are already coming out and it won’t be a surprise if the allies pull out their support, leaving PML-N with nothing but to go for fresh elections despite its frequent claims that it would complete the National Assembly term. The public coalition partners can work together after the elections but the division among them would divide the vote bank and benefit PTI in the elections, thus making their chances grim.

The prevailing political uncertainty further arising out of the Punjab by-elections has severely impacted the already fragile economy. The gravity of the economic situation could be gauged by the reports that army chief spoke by phone with the US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and the Finance Minister Miftah Ismail met the US envoy Donald Blome on the same day to urge the White House to push IMF to fast track $1.2 billion due under a loan program. The call and the meeting are against the background of weakening rupee against dollar threatening an economic collapse. Yet, the political tug-of-war is going on and no one is ready to sign a charter of economy. However, all of it is currently going only against the ruling alliance and PTI, despite its dismal performance, is becoming more popular than its opponents.

Political analysts say that the biggest shock for PML-N was that the defeat in the Punjab by-polls has dented its narrative of ideological politics, especially, the slogan of Vote Ko Izzat Do (respect the vote). PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz had run a massive campaign against establishment based on the slogan of respecting the vote but Shehbaz’s approach has always been different even before assuming office of the prime minister. In May 2021, being the PML-N President, Shehbaz Sharif had directed his party members to lower the rhetoric and pursue the policy of reconciliation. Party insiders had revealed back then that the PML-N president believes that the party should quietly move ahead; refrain from issuing unnecessary statements and position itself as an “acceptable alternative” for the next general elections in 2023. A PML-N stalwart had shared back then that “PML-N is popular but not acceptable at the moment”, saying “Shehbaz has asked the party leadership to prepare the party for the next general elections instead of locking horns with establishment by issuing unnecessary statements.”

Unlike Nawaz and Maryam, PML-N leaders say that Shehbaz not only believes in the policy of reconciliation and engagement but he is determined to set a moderate tone for the coming days instead of pursuing a policy of confrontation. Shehbaz’s relationship with the military is different from that of Imran Khan and of his brother Nawaz but time has come for PML-N to clearly decide what kind of policy it will adopt in the coming days as the current approach is creating confusion among its support base and, ultimately, hurting its interests.

Political experts also point out that PML-N didn’t realise the gravity of the economic situation before removing Imran Khan-led government and deciding to lead the federal government, saying it appears that neither it had a blue print for economy nor any solid plan for retaining Punjab, especially after the top court’s decision to hand over Punjab to PTI’s ally PML-Q. However, feeling aggrieved by the Supreme Court’s decision, the incumbent rulers have only drawn the ire of the top court by leveling the allegations that it took PTI’s side and by announcing to boycott proceedings and rejecting court’s decision. The tussle with the top court judges has yielded unwanted results and might lead to more in coming days but the current approach of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), of which PPP and ANP are not a part of, is to launch a public campaign against the top court.

Currently, the PML-N-led government believes that a decision from ECP in the foreign or prohibited funding case could save its political capital from entirely burning to the ground. Resultantly, from PM Shehbaz to the leadership in London and from the ministers to the allies, everyone is repeatedly calling for a decision in the long-pending case. The hope that the ECP would give an adverse judgment in the matter against PTI has given some hope to PML-N and allies of recouping political capital.

As things stand, the government is not ready to immediately go for fresh elections and seeks more time so that the impact of the difficult decisions that they have made is evaporated. Simultaneously, it feels that political winds are currently supporting PTI and calling early elections would be like giving a free hand to Khan. PML-N-led government feels that it is caught between a rock and hard place as neither it can afford early elections nor fulfill its promises to recover its political mileage in the face of economic constraints.

The notion that PML-N has burnt its political capital and even then lost the macro popularity in just a few months after ousting the Imran Khan-led PTI government has jolted the ruling parties to the extent that it is desperately looking to delay elections so that the impact of the tough decision is reduced before the election campaign. The government’s decision to accept the resignations of only 11 out of 131 members of PTI in the National Assembly appears to be an attempt to delay snap polls as accepting of the resignations legally move toward by-elections on the seats fell vacant.

The argument that PML-N and other parties could easily have waited for PTI to fall off because of its own weight before being ousted has resurfaced. The incumbent rulers had removed Imran through a vote of no-confidence and claimed that it would turn around things within no time. However, that didn’t happen and is now causing troubles for Sharif and his allies. Worst, what has been lost during the battle of narratives is the political and economic stability of the country, which is on the verge of default because of the ongoing political wrangling. Nevertheless, PTI has a lot to thank PML-N for as its sweeping success is not only due to intensive campaigning but also because PML-N has left a vacuum that was quickly filled by Khan.