Two trends and their tale

A trend is something popular — a direction in which some change is taking place. In international relations following a trend is sometimes an absolute necessity. Not following it amounts to swimming against the current. With the advent of the information age, the world started becoming a global village — globalisation as a process was trending, and the states that were slow to recognise that became part of a world left behind and those that rode the raging waves of the process of globalisation in previous three decades brought their nations on a level playing field with the world where today they compete and contest for their economic wellbeing and profitability with the rest of the world.

Personally, I have absolutely no doubt that we missed the globalisation bus. In the 90s decade the sea-saw of the change of governments and political instability kept us on the sidelines of the process of globalisation and in the first decade of the 21st Century while the rest of the world was globalising, we embraced military dictatorship. During the post-military dictatorship period, what dominated the democracy decade (2008 – 2018) was the individual politician’s and party leaders’ lust for wealth and power — a wasteful decade in which we continued to remain part of the US’ unnecessary war against terrorism — unnecessary at least in the haste in which they were planned and conducted. But that is part of history, what I want to write today is about two popular trends — one domestic and the other international and Pakistan’s future in following or not following these rends.

So, let’s first go international. The first trend is the ‘bury the hatchet’ trend. The US, the leader of the global economic and security order is the trendsetter, and in simple words, it wants to rescue the fast-deteriorating world order that it has created by internationalising this trend. It requires the countries to give up on their ideological standings, give up on the decades-old strategies that they have employed on achieving ideological ends and get together to create first an orderly environment from which the rest of the things can proceed including the economic benefit for the entire global community. Currently, the Muslim World is the target of this trendsetting and the US targets the Muslim world to calm down the clash of civilisations a Samuel P. Huntington’s hypothesis that not only came true but resulted in the US embracing it by initiating two decades of unnecessary wars against the Muslim world.

US President Joe Biden’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia is a very important event that signifies this trend. But before this visit, other important rapprochement efforts were already on display in the Muslim world; two arch-rivals in the Muslim world — Saudi Arabia and Iran had already bilaterally engaged in talks brokered by Iraq. UAE, despite being an Iranian rival had also ended up directly engaging with it, President Erdogan of Turkey who minced no words in criticising the Saudi Crown Prince over the journalist Khashoggi killing in the past warmly hosted and welcomed him in Ankara last month, and above all President Assad of Syria who hadn’t visited any Arab country since his country’s civil war began in 2011, recently visited UAE which was its rival in that war.

But what has been the most amazing achievement and the jewel in the crown of this bury the hatchet and rapprochement trend is the Abraham Accords. Signed on 15 September 2020 between Bahrain, UAE, and Israel in the White House the accords had laid the foundation for splintering the Arab world, burying the hatchet, and of giving up on the ideological goals in return for the US’ favours. By signing the accords, Bahrain and UAE became the first two Gulf countries to recognise Israel. The pursuit of economic prosperity which is the leading component of bury the hatchet strategy has blinded the already blurred Arab world’s ideological vision of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian land. But that is the US strategy — direct the Arab world’s attention away from the Israeli atrocities in the Palestinian land and re-direct them towards much greener pastures of economic and security benefits.

Morocco and Sudan have also normalised their relations with Israel, making six sets of Arab countries including Egypt and Jordan now have normal relations with the state of Israel. It is essential to understand that all these Arab countries got something in return to become part of the American-sponsored new trend of burying the hatchet; UAE has been promised a supply of sophisticated weapons, and Sudan’s name was removed from the US state department list of countries sponsoring terrorism and Morocco obtained US recognition of its claim over Western Sahara. So, there was a definite quid-pro-quo. Now to the second trend — the domestic Pakistani trend which I assume is pretty much linked to this bury the hatchet international trend.

The current domestic Pakistani trend is a political trend of kicking the empty can of democracy down the political road. The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) — an alliance of the thirteen political parties in Pakistan leads this trend. The big driver of this trend is the current government of Pakistan which is not willing to accept the will of the people. This is a dangerous trend as it complicates the development of democracy. The former Prime Minister Imran Khan enjoys huge public support and to quash that public support by using authoritarian tactics and silencing the voice of dissent is not service to democracy. I personally believe that Pakistan’s current domestic trend is a punishment linked to how Imran Khan’s government refused to become part of the US government’s propagated international trend which some countries in the Muslim world have already embraced. Starting from the Saudi Crown Prince’s fist bump and stone face that welcomed President Biden to the Crown Prince reportedly referring to the US President on how Americans violated human rights in Abu Gharib prison in Iraq to the killing of Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh in the occupied West Bank by Israeli forces, it seems that the Saudi Crown Prince gave no impression that he is even considering becoming part of Abraham Accords. But the Saudis can get away by providing such treatment to the Americans and their President as they are not just at the receiving but giving end as well. Some critics of President Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia are already saying that this visit indicates that as long as Saudi Arabia can keep the oil flowing it can get away with murder. Pakistan doesn’t have any such thing to offer to the US. Both times that the US held Pakistan in warm and tight embrace it was during the Afghan wars — first against the Soviet Union and second in the war on terror. Now it has withdrawn from Afghanistan and with it has withdrawn the warmth of the relationship between the two countries. All Pakistan can do is stand up and protect its honour and dignity — like President Putin of Russia said, “you can either be a sovereign or a colony.” Clearly, the US pressure tactics against Pakistan have not worked. The regime change has miserably failed. Pakistan’s survival is linked with the continuity and following of its ideological goals. It should not embrace the US-sponsored international trend of burying the hatchet. India as long as it doesn’t scrap the Kashmir-related constitutional amendments and Israel as long as it remains an occupation force on occupied Palestinian lands should not receive a foreign policy normalisation of relations nod from us. That is what should define us as a proud nation — our ability to stay sovereign and credible and sustain an independent foreign policy