Abraham Accords II?

On 13th August 2020, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the US issued a tripartite statement, which is known as the Abraham Accords, claiming a normalisation of relations between Israel and UAE. This was followed by another agreement between Bahrain and Israel. On 15th September 2020, the Foreign Ministers of Bahrain, UAE, Prime Minister of Israel, and US President Donald Trump signed a final agreement that consolidated full diplomatic relations between Israel and the two Gulf states.

Abraham Accords established Israel’s diplomatic relations with UAE and Bahrain followed by Morocco and Sudan. Now, in connivance with the US, Israel intends to focus on other Arab states i.e., Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Iraq, and Kuwait along with Algeria, Libya and Tunisia to drop their opposition and ultimately recognise Israel. This will help Israel gain the required legitimacy and they will no longer seek to improve relations with Lebanon or Syria, which are already in a weak position. What were the Abraham Accords and how did they impact Israel’s influence in the Middle East?

All parties in the Abraham Accords pledged to “recognize the importance of maintaining and strengthening peace in the Middle East and around the world based on mutual understanding and coexistence, as well as respect for human dignity and freedom, including religious freedom. Encourage efforts to promote interfaith and intercultural dialogue to advance a culture of peace among the three Abrahamic religions and all humanity.” The Abraham Accords also called for “addressing challenges through cooperation and dialogue and that developing friendly relations among states advances the interests of lasting peace in the Middle East and around the world. We believe that the best way to address challenges is through cooperation and dialogue and that developing friendly relations among states advances the interests of lasting peace in the Middle East and around the world. We pursue a vision of peace, security, and prosperity in the Middle East and around the world.

In spirit, we warmly welcome and are encouraged by the progress already made in establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and its neighbours in the region under the principles of the Abraham accords.” US President Joe Biden’s recent visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia appears to be paving the way for Abraham Accords-II. This would mean intensified efforts to establish diplomatic relations with other Arab countries as well. The failure of Arab countries to confront Israel and the consequent marginalisation of the Palestinian issue is forming a de-facto peace in the Middle East.

One cannot help but wonder whether the Abraham Accords were enough to offer Israel room in the Arab world. Will President Biden’s recent visit pave the way for Abraham Accords-II, which will encourage the remaining Arab states to normalise their relations with Israel further isolating Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran? Can the Abraham Accords establish peace in the Middle East? If there are Abraham Accords-II that follow the substance of the first one neither peace nor stability can be ensured in the region because the crux of the issue in the Middle East is the unresolved Palestinian conflict. In this scenario, one should consider two major realities while determining the shape of things in the Middle East.

First, assigning Arab states a lower rank compared to Israel without the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Arab territories that it occupied in 1967 will neither guarantee the security of Israel nor support US objectives in the region. Also, the existence of Israel’s illegal settlements in the occupied territories will continue to be a source of armed conflict in the region. Unfortunately for the Middle Eastern population, despite harbouring an anti-American sentiment, the US still holds the ability to neutralise the elites of the region and convince them that their future rests with mending fences with Israel and sharing threat perceptions against Iran. Now, another phase of Abraham’s accords will be undertaken to neutralise Lebanon and Syria the two remaining frontline Arab states that are technically still in a war with Israel. In that case, it will be a win-win situation for Israel and the US at the expense of the honour and credibility of Arab states.

Six decades ago, no Arab state had diplomatic relations with Israel but since the Camp David Accords were signed in the 1978 and subsequent Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty in 1979, several Arab countries have favoured the recognition of Israel. Resultantly, those not in favour are now in a minority. Israel and the US have long pursued a consistent policy of neutralising Arab opposition against Israel, which now appears to be reaching a logical conclusion after President Biden’s trips to Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, popular Arab resentment against Israel will not simply vanish as they now feel betrayed by their elites who have acquiesced to Israel’s barbaric policies in the occupied West Bank and Gaza strip. Second, there was no opposition in UAE and Bahrain against Abraham Accords and there is no likelihood of any resistance in other Arab states either.

Despite a poor track record of human rights, Israel’s ostensible invincibility is because of its edge in science, technology, research and development and control over the global economy, media, and military strength. If the Arab countries want to rid themselves of the emerging US-Israeli influence in the Middle East, they must put their own house in order. They should focus on education, political pluralism, science and technology, and human and social development as it will help pull the Arab world out of stagnation.