Russo-Turkish geopolitical insecurities or violation of human rights?

The history of the Russo-Turkish relationship is a history of war and peace. The Ottoman Empire has been at war with the Russian Empire — Tsarist Russia for over ten occasions from the 16^th century to the 20^th century. The relationship between the two powers didn’t get any better when Turkey of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk embraced westernisation and joined North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) to host American nuclear missiles on its soil. It’s another matter that eventually they were removed in 1962 after the Cuban Missile Crisis. The Russo-Turkish rivalry can easily be attributed to the desire of both the Black Sea powers to seek greater and lasting influence in the region. Therefore, both countries as a matter of principle have been seeking good relations with the other littoral states of the Black Sea. Alliances and partnerships play a huge role in building a counterweight against your rival and no one knows that better than Russia today in how it is dealing with Ukraine after Ukraine chose to be an ally of and partner with a different world.

As seen in the current context, when the Ukrainian war broke out, Turkey preferred to stand with its NATO allies and condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But almost four months into this war the crucial question related to regional geopolitics is — where is Turkey standing in this war today? The commonality that binds Russia and Turkey together today is the similarity of their worldview. Both countries have been great Empires of the past and more than anything else it is the restoration of their past glory which creates a similarity in their outlook on the present world — a world that both these countries consider is being dominated unilaterally by a single power — the US. Turkey is actually in a tremendous reciprocal position to pay back the Russian debt. When almost the entire western world led by the US condemned President Erdogan in 2016 for human rights violations, President Putin stood up and supported President Erdogan following his actions after the coup attempt against his government. One has to read the mindsets of both the Russian and Turkish leaders to understand how both leaders when they take bold political stands or seize opportunities to extend their geopolitical goals, they do compromise on their national interests and further these interests no matter what the odds.

Unlike the West, it is not human rights but the geopolitical insecurities that play a leading role in the formulation of their national security policies. The West may term it morally questionable but when it comes to Ukraine it seems Turkey is occupying a middle ground. It voted at the UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia. Still, it is neither part of the sanctioning regime of the world that sanctions Russia nor has it closed its airspace to Russian aircraft. In fact, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has stated that ‘Russian oligarchs are welcome in Turkey and free to do business there in accordance with international law.’ The Turkish position on Ukraine is being termed as ‘pro-Ukrainian’ but not outright anti-Russia. Some of Turkey’s pro-Russian actions include; being the first country to host diplomatic talks between Moscow and Kyiv, it continues to import Russian oil, blocking Sweden and Finland’s entry into NATO, and also keeping its doors open to Russian tourists to continue to boom its sliding economy. There are many reasons for Turkey to prefer and remain in the middle ground in how it is responding to Ukraine but one sensitive and essential reason is Turkey’s own geopolitical insecurities.

Any time soon, Turkey is likely to carry out a military operation in Syria. The military objective of the operation is to establish a security zone along Turkey’s southern border by clearing the cities of Tal Rifaat and Manij of all terrorists. Both the cities hold a large Kurdish population and it may be recalled that when Turkey launched a similar military operation across its border with Syria in 2018 more than 100,000 people were displaced and they took refuge in the city of Tal Rifaat. What will become of these people and their lives if Turkey again launches a military operation to clear the city? Both the cities are controlled by the Syrian Kurdish armed group, the People’s Protection Unit (YPG). Turkey has declared this group a terrorist organisation and blames it for having links with its local armed fighters belonging to Kurdistan Workers Party (KPP) which has also been declared a terrorist organization by Turkey. Those who follow Middle Eastern politics know that the KPP has been waging an armed struggle against Turkey since 1984 in which thousands of people have already died.

Much like Russia when it launched its special military operation in Ukraine, Turkey also considers the launching of these military operations in Syria as its legitimate right, and President Erdogan has already made a wait-and-see statement saying ‘Turkey will see who supports and who opposes these operations’. The US Secretary of State has already warned Turkey against launching these military operations and has asked it to respect the cease-fire line agreed in 2019. Interestingly, President Erdogan spoke to the Russian President whose country has a military presence in Syria and considers Syria as its client state and explained to him that his country doesn’t need to seek permission from anyone to initiate these military operations. He also told him that the cease-fire was meant to deepen the existing safety zone on the Turkish border to ensure the displacement and settlement of the Syrian refugees there. President Putin is obviously pleased with Turkey as it has recently objected to and opposed the applications for NATO membership by Sweden and Finland but Russia too has its worries about the choke point that leads its navy from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.

Russian geopolitical insecurity in the Black Sea is related to the restrictions on the free movement of its navy through the Bosphorus strait and the Dardanelles controlled by Turkey. When Turkey invoked the 1936 Montreux Conventions wartime provisions and closed the strait linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean it literally trapped the Russian navy in the Black Sea. Thus, Russia today relies on its air force to support its military operations in Syria.

All credit must be given to President Erdogan for his recent geopolitical manoeuvring; he sides with the west to condemn the Ukrainian war, doesn’t become part of sanctioning world against Russia and protects his economy, blocks the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO to please Russians, closes the Bosphorus straits to Russian navy under a legitimate international convention to please the western world and has visibly showcased itself as the only country which is in a position to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine if incase that be needed.

With all bases covered and with world attention focused on the Ukrainian war, President Erdogan it seems is selecting the best time to venture out to deal with his border insecurities and the cross-border terrorist threat that he has been planning for a long time to quash. For the West, it will be another question of violation of human rights, but for countries like Turkey and Russia, it always remains more a question of addressing their geopolitical insecurities than a violation of human rights.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 17^th, 2022.

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