Our N-assets ensure deterrence, strategic stability in South Asia
The writer is a Professor of International Relations and Executive Director at Balochistan Think Tank Network, Quetta
One of the primary aims of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons is to maintain deterrence stability under the evolving strategic environment in South Asia. In fact, Pakistan has been maintaining deterrence stability. The country has been successfully deterring its adversary each day consistently for 24 years since testing its nuclear weapon capability twenty-four years ago – on May 28, 1998 – in response to India’s nuclear tests in the same month and year.
Like many other nuclear weapons states, security remains a predominant factor behind Pakistan acquiring and testing nuclear capability. If it had been a technological factor, there are many countries in the world today that have embraced state-of-the-art technology, but do not possess nuclear weapons. And if it had been an economic factor, many rich countries could buy nuclear weapons off the shelf, but they have not.
Even some of the nuclear pessimists, such as Scott D Sagan, have discussed the idea of nuclear weapons for security purposes. Sagan’s widely read and cited article headlined ‘Why do states build nuclear weapons?’ published in the International Security Academic journal in 1996 primarily emphasises on the security imperative amongst the other two factors such as the ‘norms model’ and the ‘domestic model’ imperatives. However, the prestige factor, the technological determinant, the bureaucratic struggle, and the economic advancement can be many other factors defining pathways for state’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, but they are not considered as the ultimate factors.
Pakistan aspires for peaceful uses of nuclear technologies to meet its increasing energy demands. Pakistan has a number of nuclear power plants meant for producing electricity. These power plants function under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This clearly indicates Pakistan’s compliance with international institutions on how best to use nuclear technologies for peaceful purposes. The appropriate use of nuclear technologies for peaceful purposes is also environmentally friendlier, cheaper, safer and more reliable.
Even if Pakistan develops effective and reliable countermeasures against its adversary, the purpose is to retain balance and prevent war, thus ensuring deterrence stability, which otherwise is undermined by India which keeps on increasing and modernising its deterrent forces both in the conventional and nuclear domain. Pakistan is a confident and responsible nuclear weapon state. It never misfires its missile across the broader area, preventing risk of miscalculation and escalation. It follows the norms and values related to uses of nuclear technologies for peaceful purposes. It ensures protection and safeguards of its nuclear forces and its related materials. Unlike India, it has no such record of having missed its nuclear-related facilities. It uses its nuclear technology for peaceful purposes to the benefit of the people of Pakistan more broadly. Its record of compliance with international institutions (such as IAEA) in terms of safety and security mechanisms of nuclear-related materials remains appreciative and remarkable.
It follows full-spectrum deterrence within the ambit of credible minimum deterrence. Its total nuclear forces are not more than any nuclear weapons states in the world, including India. It has a robust and centralised command and control system. Its nuclear development programme remains India-specific. It has a calculated strategy against its potential adversary. It never desires to indulge into a never-ending arms race. It retains balance rather than parity when it comes to competing deterrent force postures. Certainly, it attempts to plug the missing deterrence gap for its own protection and security. It jealously guards the guardians. It never intends to transfer its nuclear technology to other countries as largely perceived often with the wide-scale propaganda to malign the credibility of its deterrent forces.
Pakistan has already proposed India for initiation of a strategic restraint regime in South Asia. It has held a number of nuclear confidence building measures. It also practices nuclear moratorium. Unless India goes for more nuclear tests, Pakistan largely practices restraint in this context.
To conclude, while keeping the conceptual always/never dichotomy into consideration, Pakistan never compromises on its vital security interest even if it has to use nuclear forces for its ultimate survival when it is absolutely needed. It responsibly does not intend to use nuclear forces when it is absolutely not required. It believes that its nuclear forces are credible enough to deter its adversary. It ensures the credibility of its deterrent forces during both peace and crisis times because credibility remains the very essence of nuclear deterrence. Pakistan practices restraint which is the very essence of strategy both in the military and nuclear echelon.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 9th, 2022.
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