The deepening crisis after regime change

Historically, no Pakistani Prime Minister has completed a five-year term — assassinated, hanged, or removed through the imposition of martial law or by the president under the 8^th constitutional amendment. For the first time in Pakistan’s history, a regime change has taken place through a vote of no-confidence. Despite former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s allegations of a foreign conspiracy, this time the method for regime change was constitutional.

Britannica defines regime change as “overthrowing a government considered illegitimate by an external force and its replacement with a new government according to the ideas or interests promoted by that force.” Cambridge dictionary defines regime change as “a complete change of government, especially one brought about by force.”

In Western democracies, elected governments are removed through a vote of no-confidence or popular protests, which compel the party in power to replace the head of government or state through constitutional means. Presently, the West has tried to change the Russian regime by pressuring Russian stakeholders following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, Moscow has tried to have the pro-West Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky removed.

One cannot help but wonder why regime change took place in Pakistan and how internal crisis deepened after Imran Khan’s removal.

Pakistan’s history is replete with examples of regime change primarily by unconstitutional measures. However, Imran Khan’s allegations of a US conspiracy with the connivance of opposition leaders are debatable. He claimed that the US Assistant Secretary of State for the South and Central Asian Affairs, Donald Lu warned the Pakistani envoy to the US that “there would be implications if the Pakistan Prime Minister survived the no-trust vote in the National Assembly.” Khan’s allegations were rejected by the opposition, and the Director-General of Inter-Services Public Relations further clarified that no evidence of a foreign conspiracy was found.

Now that Imran Khan has been removed by a coalition government of around a dozen political parties, it is time to critically analyse how regime change has triggered a political and economic crisis in Pakistan. The present government claims that Pakistan is better off without the corrupt, vindictive and inefficient PTI regime and denies allegations over the ensuing crisis. However, things are not as simple because regime change augmented the political crisis in the country and the country is experiencing an economic upheaval.

How regime change deepened the crisis needs to be analysed in two ways.

First, most people now claim that they were better off two months ago because the incumbent government has dropped continuous petrol and diesel bombs besides raising gas and electricity tariffs. If this situation does not improve, the middle and lower-income groups will be completely wiped out. The public is also harshly critical of the taxes imposed under the 2022-23 federal budget on the pretext of saving Pakistan from default and economic destruction. The imports have, however, still not been reduced. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has announced austerity measures to curtail unnecessary government expenditures, hosted a lavish dinner for the leaders of allied parties at the Prime Minister House. This exposes the ruling elites’ double standards because at a time when the masses are asked to eat rookhi sookhi to help the government cope with the grave financial crisis, the ruling elites continue to indulge in extravagance. The recent ‘Turnaround Pakistan’ conference held in Islamabad cost millions of rupees and cannot yield results because nations are not made by mere superficial claims or hollow visions but through hard work, integrity and intelligence.

The economic fallout of the federal budget and other measures adopted by the ruling coalition to generate revenue have offered redemption to PTI and its Chairman Imran Khan. Had the PTI government completed its five-year term, it would have struggled to win the 2023 general elections because its inefficient and fascist mode of governance would have become apparent to the people. However, now the people are questioning the rationale behind the regime change, and the PML-N is losing popularity amongst the public. The forthcoming bye-elections on 20 seats of Punjab Assembly will determine the fate of PML-N to some extent.

Before the no-confidence vote against him, Imran Khan claimed he would be more dangerous to the opposition once he was out of power. Now the PML-N will be faced with serious challenges as people have already grown agitated with the incumbents. The PML-N cannot absolve itself of the responsibility of failing to tackle the prevailing economic crisis by simply blaming the former government of the PTI. During bye-election speeches in Lahore, Imran Khan lambasted those who “compromised the country’s sovereignty by siding with the US over its conspiracy of regime change”. He has been able to amass public support by playing on their sentiments. However, Imran Khan too cannot absolve himself of inefficiency, corruption, nepotism, targeting political opponents, vindictiveness, ego-centricity, arrogance and disrespectful behaviour toward others during his time in office.

Second, the idea that regime change was not entirely constitutional questions the legitimacy of civilian governments and reveals their fragility. The PTI alleges that the no-confidence motion took place under a foreign conspiracy with the involvement of domestic forces. For decades, Pakistan has been faced with recurrent political, economic and social crises because democracy has not been allowed to function freely. This is detrimental to the welfare of the country and the well-being of the people.

We cannot expect a ‘turnaround’ of Pakistan under a regime that has fails to strengthen the country’s economy, ensure good governance and improve living standards of the masses. It has rather plunged the 220 million people of Pakistan into a deeper economic crisis.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 3^rd, 2022.

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