Geopolitical conflicts and economic crusade

There is a unique way in which the US conducts its foreign policy and leads the rule-based order that it has built for the world. The US operates its foreign policy based on how well it is able to shape a given environment in any region. Be it Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, or Asia, the US foreign policy finger is in every pie and it makes sure that the prevailing environment in these regions not only tastes sweet but remains favourable to extend and further US interests. The US never takes decisions for any country, it only ensures that it creates and shapes the right environment in which countries take those decisions — invariably those decisions favour not only the US but the liberal international order that it has built and must be sustained.

Pakistan is not willing to talk to India unless it scraps its constitutional provisions related to Occupied Kashmir, not a likable stand. Pakistan standing up and trying to rebuild the Islamic bloc by holding the OICs foreign ministers’ summit, speaking out against Islamophobia and asking the Muslim world to condemn Indian and Israeli state atrocities against the Kashmiris and Palestinians not likable. Pakistan wanting warm relations with Russia is not likable. Pakistan is not willing to allow American military presence within its borders not likable. And Pakistan standing up and telling the US that we will be a partner with you in peace but not in any war is not likable. So, what can the US do to a country which despite allowing a US finger in its every pie in the past suddenly starts sounding offensive, looking indifferent and tasting very bad? Well, the US does what it does best — works to change the very environment under which these decisions are being taken. This is just one example — what is coming next?

President Joe Biden is all set to visit Saudi Arabia in a few days’ time. Saudi Arabia has already embarked on the road of liberal internationalism and all it needs now is to address some of Washington’s human rights concerns, end the war in Yemen and instead of taking baby steps toward normalising its relations with Israel take a giant leap forward and join the Abraham Accords. All Saudi Arabia has to do is speak the American language of liberal internationalism and say that “the best way to address challenges is through cooperation and dialogue”. Saudi Arabia leads the Gulf Cooperation Council and when Saudi Arabia takes a stand it means others follow suit. This will hardly be seen as US interference in the Saudi spheres of influence, the decision will surely be of Saudi Arabia, all US will do is create the right environment in which that decision can be taken. Today, the US-driven order of liberal internationalism is seeking to crush all geopolitical conflicts under the weight of an economic crusade and all arch enemies are being motivated to take the big leap forward, forget about the history of their conflicts and just focus on the possibility of a brighter global economic future, all being structured by an ‘enabling environment’ being constructed by the US. The clear message from the largest economy in the world is clear– you can be either part of a liberal or an illiberal world. But what about the world’s second largest economy — China?

Both China and Russia represent an illiberal world not because the people in both these countries are suffering but only because both these countries stand together in their declared opposition to US primacy in world affairs. Both countries advocate a multipolar world and not a US-inspired one in which states take decisions in an environment that primarily serves US interests. Both these countries consider US interference and engineering as the main factor behind all the coups, regime changes and coloured revolutions that take place around the world.

China’s response to US geopolitical meddling, unlike Russia’s, is most likely to remain measured and moderate. Trade with the US and Europe and also China’s greater interdependence on the leading economies of the world makes it far more vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions and conflicts than Russia. So, the world can stay rest assured that China will remain Russia’s partner but will not allow its economy to be crushed under any US-sponsored economic crusade. But even when China is setting itself up as a power that prefers to peruse more geo-economic than geopolitical goals, it may still be incited to do something different by none other than the world’s third largest economy — Japan.

Japan is likely to become more assertive given what has happened to Ukraine which has handed over its nuclear weapons and despite western security, guarantees were still attacked. Japan continues to express fears of a military confrontation with China over its claims to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. Sixteen years earlier both China and Japan had identical defence budgets, but today, China’s defence budget is five times bigger than Japan’s and is projected to be nine times bigger by 2030. In March this year when President Zelensky addressed the Japanese parliament through a video link, he requested the Japanese to stand up for Ukrainian democracy. He also expressed his concerns for the safety and security of Ukrainian nuclear plants and the potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia against Ukraine — both subjects that psychologically overwhelm Japanese thinking and decision-making. Consequently, Japan has ended up forwarding $100 million in emergency humanitarian assistance and $100 in loans to Ukraine.

Some Japanese commentators are also increasingly debating the 2021 statement of President Joe Biden who said that “American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight themselves.” The question being asked in Japan is: what does this line of thinking mean for them? With the war in Ukraine forcing the US to shift its focus and resources away from Indo-Pacific where does this leave Japan in addressing its geopolitical insecurities? To up the ante, Japan expelled eight Russian diplomats and also became part of the world that is sanctioning Russia. Japan still contests and claims 4 Kuril Islands, a chain of islands spread over 750 miles occupied by Russia in the Far East, and has been a historical foe that has been invading the Russian mainland.

Both China and Russia contribute to Japan’s geopolitical insecurities and thus Japan is proposing to double its defence budgets which will be 2% of its GDP. Also, Japan is all set to host the G-7 summit in 2023. What the world waits to see is what will be the Japanese response if the war in Ukraine spills over to the Far East and to Taiwan. Will Japan still consider pushing the economic crusade under the US leadership or step aside and be part of a wider and multipolar world engaged in geopolitical competitions?

Published in The Express Tribune, June 26^th, 2022.

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