Growing N-piles
After decades of declining, the number of usable nuclear weapons in the world looks set to rise in the near future as tensions between the West and Russia, in particular, and other nuclear-armed states in general, have risen to levels not seen in many of our lifetimes. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a well-respected Swedish think-tank, noted that all of the nuclear-armed states have been increasing or upgrading their arsenals and rethinking the role of nuclear weapons in their military strategies. Most notably, immediately after the invasion of Ukraine began, Russian President Vladimir Putin put its nuclear deterrent on high alert and began directing thinly-veiled threats at countries that would dare to stand in Russia’s way.
Meanwhile, the US, which has the second-most nukes, continues to work on upgrading its arsenal, and third-place China has also been taking the same approach. The same applies to the UK and France,
While Pakistan and India have reportedly also been growing their arsenals, although neither has confirmed or admitted to this. And despite only possessing a handful of nuclear weapons, North Korea continues to aggressively expand its nuclear arsenal. Israel, which has never admitted to having nuclear weapons, is for the same reason the hardest to draw estimates for, but there have long been rumors that the country has continued producing weapons to strengthen its deterrent, especially against arch-rival Iran, which is also rumoured to be capable of producing nuclear weapons, though no one believes it has any yet.
It is also concerning that the rising number of weapons and increasing yields has not really helped stop conflict. And while it may be true that mutually assured destruction may have kept several border exchanges and other tense situations between Pakistan and India, India and China, and Israel and its neighbours from getting out of hand, the fact is that, with increasing second-strike capability, even one poorly though-out move by any nuclear-armed country could lead to a bilateral or multilateral nuclear exchange that could devastate the world.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 15th, 2022.
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