We continue to stumble

It was ominous news emanating from every corner as the budget was presented. “Budgeting for hard times ahead,” chronicled Dawn; “Tax heavy and inflationary,” characterised The Express Tribune; “Tough fiscal consolidation,” described Business Recorder; and so on. The message was clear: Pakistan is facing one of the most serious economic crises even by its own standards and navigating it required strict adherence to the IMF set conditionalities. Regrettably, the acute political polarisation makes the task of dealing with the economic challenge even more difficult. Moreover, with the kind of approach and policies adopted by past military and political governments, as well as the present coalition, in dealing with economic issues it is unlikely that we would ever come out of the debt trap and shelve our dependence on foreign countries and international aid agencies.

A country’s economic viability and independence is also dependent on its political stability, relations with major powers and the intrinsic capabilities of its people in terms of education, health and scientific and technological level. In all these metrics Pakistan trails behind even from South Asian standards.

With acute polarisation bordering on inimical relations between major political parties, Pakistan remains under constant threat of unrest and on a collision course — a sure recipe for aggravating economic instability.

Then Pakistan has remained locked up in a given external and internal security situation for years which has been a major burden on its resources. The unabated hostility with India, which has to be countered, but at a heavy cost. Emergence of hostile elements such as TTP, BLF and IS-K pose an additional burden and responsibility on the security forces. Political wrangling, loss of confidence in the government and economic deprivation fuel these anti-state elements.

The question is: are we going to continue facing these challenges and accept them as fait accompli or has the time not arrived that we address these with greater wisdom and take a different approach as the present policies have failed to deliver and reinforced the maladies? Can we reduce the defence budget instead of increasing it to a point that it consumes the highest percentage of the total allocation after paying the debt mandatory obligations? The BJP government’s policy is to weaken Pakistan’s economy and this is one reason it keeps the hostility at a high pitch. But if successive Pakistani governments were to focus on human and infrastructural development and allocate sufficient resources for it then it would be in a better position to face India and Pakistan’s standing globally would be different. Another way of looking at it is how the country’s strategic and defence capability is undermined by its economic weakness and external reliance. Despite the grave economic scenario, successive governments did not exhibit the level of seriousness in addressing these and conforming their politics to mitigate its impact. So, it is not surprising where the country stands now.

Countries with weak and dependent economies are victims of perpetual conflict from within and gross interference by major and regional powers. We only have to look at the plight of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and a host of African and Latin American countries. Our own conflict zones – the erstwhile tribal areas which now a part of K-P, and Balochistan – have suffered gravely due to our involvement, albeit indirect, in the recent US-Afghan war. It is unfortunate that these areas also suffered due to the British using these as buffer zones This shows how crucial it is to have leadership that is mature and capable of protecting the vital interests of the country and avoiding involvement in conflicts. Similarly, confrontational politics within the country generates chaos and disorder, the burden of which the masses have to bear.

What conclusions and lessons then the leaders need to draw from our past experience and those of other unfortunate Muslim and developing countries that are caught in perpetual internal infighting and external humiliation. In essence they should focus on the right national priorities, shun self-ego for national good and avoid petty political wrangling. But whether they are capable of rising to the challenge is highly doubtful.

South Korea, Vietnam and more so China are countries where dedicated leadership with great insight and passion for transforming the societies did succeed and transformed the lives of millions of its people. I have had the good fortune of visiting these countries several times during their remarkable transformation and in many cases, it was breathtaking. I have also been to Syria and Iraq and witnessed the plight of population under brutal dictators whose only aim seemed to keep consolidating their hold over their hapless subjects. Thankfully, there is Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia that have moved with times and progressed in several critical fields. And in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and the UAE despite their monarchial power structures are revitalising their countries and keeping pace with times while preserving their centuries-old culture. There are lessons to be drawn from countries that have succeeded and moving ahead as well as those that have failed.

We need to address the weaknesses in our political power structure. The army leadership’s realisation that it will henceforth be “neutral”, implying it would not meddle in power manipulation, was widely well received. But it would largely depend on the major political parties how they conduct themselves. In an acutely tense political environment bordering on downright hostility and Imran Khan seeking the involvement of the army to support them place the institution in a difficult situation. This is as much applicable in case of the bureaucracy that they are not dragged in political rivalries. But this is not always happening and the basic concept that state institutions are supposed to be apolitical and only serving the incumbent government continues to be flouted. As soon as the government changes a whole new set of bureaucrats are changed and the process is personalised which cuts against the principle of good governance. There is little realisation of how the country and people suffer by not adhering to these basic norms.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 15^th, 2022.

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